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Folding uncertainty in theoretical models into Bayesian parameter estimation is necessary in order to make reliable inferences. A general means of achieving this is by marginalizing over model uncertainty using a prior distribution…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2016-03-04 Christopher J. Moore , Christopher P. L. Berry , Alvin J. K. Chua , Jonathan R. Gair

Correlation between microstructure noise and latent financial logarithmic returns is an empirically relevant phenomenon with sound theoretical justification. With few notable exceptions, all integrated variance estimators proposed in the…

Computation · Statistics 2019-05-29 Stefano Peluso , Antonietta Mira , Pietro Muliere

Gaussian process regression is a popular method for non-parametric probabilistic modeling of functions. The Gaussian process prior is characterized by so-called hyperparameters, which often have a large influence on the posterior model and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-18 Andreas Svensson , Johan Dahlin , Thomas B. Schön

Gaussian processes are a natural way of defining prior distributions over functions of one or more input variables. In a simple nonparametric regression problem, where such a function gives the mean of a Gaussian distribution for an…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2008-02-03 Radford M. Neal

Gaussian process regression in its most simplified form assumes normal homoscedastic noise and utilizes analytically tractable mean and covariance functions of predictive posterior distribution using Gaussian conditioning. Its…

Applications · Statistics 2023-01-20 Pooja Algikar , Lamine Mili

Gaussian processes (GPs) are non-parametric probabilistic regression models that are popular due to their flexibility, data efficiency, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. However, standard GP models assume homoskedastic Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-08 Sebastian Ament , Elizabeth Santorella , David Eriksson , Ben Letham , Maximilian Balandat , Eytan Bakshy

This paper considers the problem of robust adaptive efficient estimating of a periodic function in a continuous time regression model with the dependent noises given by a general square integrable semimartingale with a conditionally…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-24 Evgeny Pchelintsev , Serguei Pergamenshchikov

Gaussian Processes (GP) have become popular machine-learning methods for kernel-based learning on datasets with complicated covariance structures. In this paper, we present a novel extension to the GP framework using a contaminated normal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-03 Daniel Iong , Matthew McAnear , Yuezhou Qu , Shasha Zou , Gabor Toth , Yang Chen

This paper considers the problem of estimating a periodic function in a continuous time regression model with an additive stationary gaussian noise having unknown correlation function. A general model selection procedure on the basis of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-11-10 Victor Konev , Serguei Pergamenchtchikov

We study Bayesian inference methods for solving linear inverse problems, focusing on hierarchical formulations where the prior or the likelihood function depend on unspecified hyperparameters. In practice, these hyperparameters are often…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-08-01 Qingping Zhou , Wenqing Liu , Jinglai Li , Youssef M. Marzouk

We develop semiparametrically efficient inference for kernel measures of noise heterogeneity in additive noise models. In many applications, the regression function is estimated using flexible machine learning methods. Downstream procedures…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-28 Jakub Wornbard , Zikai Shen , Dimitri Meunier , Arthur Gretton

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a popular model for spatially referenced data and allow descriptive statements, predictions at new locations, and simulation of new fields. Often a few parameters are sufficient to parameterize the covariance…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-01 Florian Gerber , Douglas W. Nychka

Recent work in scalable approximate Gaussian process regression has discussed a bias-variance-computation trade-off when estimating the log marginal likelihood. We suggest a method that adaptively selects the amount of computation to use…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-21 David R. Burt , Artem Artemev , Mark van der Wilk

The declining response rates in probability surveys along with the widespread availability of unstructured data has led to growing research into non-probability samples. Existing robust approaches are not well-developed for non-Gaussian…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-29 Ali Rafei , Michael R. Elliott , Carol A. C. Flannagan

Despite the ubiquity of the Gaussian process regression model, few theoretical results are available that account for the fact that parameters of the covariance kernel typically need to be estimated from the dataset. This article provides…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-12 Toni Karvonen , George Wynne , Filip Tronarp , Chris J. Oates , Simo Särkkä

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a class of Kernel methods that have shown to be very useful in geoscience and remote sensing applications for parameter retrieval, model inversion, and emulation. They are widely used because they are simple,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-21 J. Emmanuel Johnson , Valero Laparra , Gustau Camps-Valls

Signal processing in non-Gaussian noise environment is addressed in this paper. For many real-life situations, the additive noise process present in the system is found to be dominantly non-Gaussian. The problem of detection and estimation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-01-23 Jugalkishore K. Banoth , Pradip Sircar

We propose a simple method that combines neural networks and Gaussian processes. The proposed method can estimate the uncertainty of outputs and flexibly adjust target functions where training data exist, which are advantages of Gaussian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-20 Tomoharu Iwata , Zoubin Ghahramani

The complexity of semiparametric models poses new challenges to statistical inference and model selection that frequently arise from real applications. In this work, we propose new estimation and variable selection procedures for the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-03-09 Bo Kai , Runze Li , Hui Zou

In a Bayesian learning setting, the posterior distribution of a predictive model arises from a trade-off between its prior distribution and the conditional likelihood of observed data. Such distribution functions usually rely on additional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-11-01 Andrea Schirru , Simone Pampuri , Giuseppe De Nicolao , Sean McLoone
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