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More than twenty years after its introduction, Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) remains one of the most effective methods for marginal likelihood estimation. It relies on a sequence of distributions interpolating between a tractable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-25 Arnaud Doucet , Will Grathwohl , Alexander G. D. G. Matthews , Heiko Strathmann

Safe and reliable state estimation techniques are a critical component of next-generation robotic systems. Agents in such systems must be able to reason about the intentions and trajectories of other agents for safe and efficient motion…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-06-28 Harrison Delecki , Liam A. Kruse , Marc R. Schlichting , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Based on machine learning techniques, we propose a novel method to estimate flow fields using only floating sensor locations. This method does not require either ground-truth velocity fields or governing equations for fluid flows, which is…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2026-04-07 Tomoya Oura , Reno Miura , Koji Fukagata

Equilibrium modeling is common in a variety of fields such as game theory and transportation science. The inputs for these models, however, are often difficult to estimate, while their outputs, i.e., the equilibria they are meant to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-05-20 Dimitris Bertsimas , Vishal Gupta , Ioannis Ch. Paschalidis

Normalizing constant (also called partition function, Bayesian evidence, or marginal likelihood) is one of the central goals of Bayesian inference, yet most of the existing methods are both expensive and inaccurate. Here we develop a new…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-09 He Jia , Uroš Seljak

We present a detailed study of Bayesian inference workflows for pulsar timing array data with a focus on enhancing efficiency, robustness and speed through the use of normalizing flow-based nested sampling. Building on the Enterprise…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-11-05 Eleonora Villa , Golam Mohiuddin Shaifullah , Andrea Possenti , Carmelita Carbone

Neural network observers (NNOs) are proposed for real-time estimation of fluid flows, addressing a key challenge in flow control: obtaining real-time flow states from a limited set of sparse and noisy sensor data. For this task, we propose…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2025-11-06 Tarcísio C. Déda , William R. Wolf , Scott T. M. Dawson , Brener L. O. Ramos

Adaptive importance samplers are adaptive Monte Carlo algorithms to estimate expectations with respect to some target distribution which \textit{adapt} themselves to obtain better estimators over a sequence of iterations. Although it is…

Computation · Statistics 2020-05-08 Ömer Deniz Akyildiz , Joaquín Míguez

Understanding systems by forward and inverse modeling is a recurrent topic of research in many domains of science and engineering. In this context, Monte Carlo methods have been widely used as powerful tools for numerical inference and…

Computation · Statistics 2022-02-14 F. Llorente , L. Martino , D. Delgado , G. Camps-Valls

Humans are able to accelerate their learning by selecting training materials that are the most informative and at the appropriate level of difficulty. We propose a framework for distributing deep learning in which one set of workers search…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-04-19 Guillaume Alain , Alex Lamb , Chinnadhurai Sankar , Aaron Courville , Yoshua Bengio

We propose the Value Gradient Sampler (VGS), a diffusion sampler parameterized by value functions. VGS generates samples from an unnormalized target density (i.e., energy) by evolving randomly initialized particles along the gradient of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-01 Himchan Hwang , Hyeokju Jeong , Dong Kyu Shin , Che-Sang Park , Sehee Kweon , Sangwoong Yoon , Frank Chongwoo Park

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) can be used to solve partial differential equations (PDEs) and identify hidden variables by incorporating the governing equations into neural network training. In this study, we apply PINNs to the…

This dissertation shows that careful injection of noise into sample data can substantially speed up Expectation-Maximization algorithms. Expectation-Maximization algorithms are a class of iterative algorithms for extracting maximum…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-26 Osonde Adekorede Osoba

In this work, we demonstrate how to reliably estimate epistemic uncertainty while maintaining the flexibility needed to capture complicated aleatoric distributions. To this end, we propose an ensemble of Normalizing Flows (NF), which are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-05 Lucas Berry , David Meger

We propose a method using supervised machine learning to estimate velocity fields from particle images having missing regions due to experimental limitations. As a first example, a velocity field around a square cylinder at Reynolds number…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2021-09-09 Masaki Morimoto , Kai Fukami , Koji Fukagata

The Normalizing Flow (NF) models a general probability density by estimating an invertible transformation applied on samples drawn from a known distribution. We introduce a new type of NF, called Deep Diffeomorphic Normalizing Flow (DDNF).…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-26 Hadi Salman , Payman Yadollahpour , Tom Fletcher , Kayhan Batmanghelich

Approximate inference in probability models is a fundamental task in machine learning. Approximate inference provides powerful tools to Bayesian reasoning, decision making, and Bayesian deep learning. The main goal is to estimate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-10 Jun Han

The performance of a machine learning system is usually evaluated by using i.i.d.\ observations with true labels. However, acquiring ground truth labels is expensive, while obtaining unlabeled samples may be cheaper. Stratified sampling can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-29 Tiancheng Yu , Xiyu Zhai , Suvrit Sra

Rare event simulation and estimation for systems in equilibrium are among the most challenging topics in molecular dynamics. As was shown by Jarzynski and others, nonequilibrium forcing can theoretically be used to obtain equilibrium rare…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-06-11 Carsten Hartmann , Christof Schütte

Bayesian posterior inference is prevalent in various machine learning problems. Variational inference provides one way to approximate the posterior distribution, however its expressive power is limited and so is the accuracy of resulting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-11 Guoqing Zheng , Yiming Yang , Jaime Carbonell