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We present an algorithm for finding the probabilities of rare events in nonequilibrium processes. The algorithm consists of evolving the system with a modified dynamics for which the required event occurs more frequently. By keeping track…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-04-07 Anupam Kundu , Sanjib Sabhapandit , Abhishek Dhar

We explore efficient estimation of statistical quantities, particularly rare event probabilities, for stochastic reaction networks. Consequently, we propose an importance sampling (IS) approach to improve the Monte Carlo (MC) estimator…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-03-12 Chiheb Ben Hammouda , Nadhir Ben Rached , Raúl Tempone , Sophia Wiechert

Importance Sampling (IS) is a widely used variance reduction technique for enhancing the efficiency of Monte Carlo methods, particularly in rare-event simulation and related applications. Despite its effectiveness, the performance of IS is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-11 Liviu Aolaritei , Bart P. G. Van Parys , Henry Lam , Michael I. Jordan

We develop an iterative (greedy) deep learning (DL) algorithm which is able to transform an arbitrary probability distribution function (PDF) into the target PDF. The model is based on iterative Optimal Transport of a series of 1D slices,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-16 Biwei Dai , Uros Seljak

Sampling from unnormalized densities is analogous to the generative modeling problem, but the target distribution is defined by a known energy function instead of data samples. Because evaluating the energy function is often costly, a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-06 Aaron Havens , Brian Karrer , Neta Shaul

Normalizing flows are powerful non-parametric statistical models that function as a hybrid between density estimators and generative models. Current learning algorithms for normalizing flows assume that data points are sampled…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-31 Matthias Kirchler , Christoph Lippert , Marius Kloft

Fast inference of numerical model parameters from data is an important prerequisite to generate predictive models for a wide range of applications. Use of sampling-based approaches such as Markov chain Monte Carlo may become intractable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-10 Yu Wang , Fang Liu , Daniele E. Schiavazzi

Conventional deep network training generally optimizes all samples under a largely uniform learning paradigm, without explicitly modeling the heterogeneous competition among them. Such an oversimplified treatment can lead to several…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-15 Ying Zheng , Yiyi Zhang , Yi Wang , Lap-Pui Chau

We consider the problem of estimating the expected value of information (the knowledge gradient) for Bayesian learning problems where the belief model is nonlinear in the parameters. Our goal is to maximize some metric, while simultaneously…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-23 Xinyu He , Warren B. Powell

Normalizing Flows (NFs) learn invertible mappings between the data and a Gaussian distribution. Prior works usually suffer from two limitations. First, they add random noise to training samples or VAE latents as data augmentation,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-12-04 Qinyu Zhao , Guangting Zheng , Tao Yang , Rui Zhu , Xingjian Leng , Stephen Gould , Liang Zheng

Fitting probabilistic models to data is often difficult, due to the general intractability of the partition function and its derivatives. Here we propose a new parameter estimation technique that does not require computing an intractable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-03-13 Jascha Sohl-Dickstein , Peter Battaglino , Michael R. DeWeese

State estimation or filtering serves as a fundamental task to enable intelligent decision-making in applications such as autonomous vehicles, robotics, healthcare monitoring, smart grids, intelligent transportation, and predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Aamir Hussain Chughtai

We consider the following basic learning task: given independent draws from an unknown distribution over a discrete support, output an approximation of the distribution that is as accurate as possible in $\ell_1$ distance (i.e. total…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-11-12 Gregory Valiant , Paul Valiant

In the field of computational physics and material science, the efficient sampling of rare events occurring at atomic scale is crucial. It aids in understanding mechanisms behind a wide range of important phenomena, including protein…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Xinru Hua , Rasool Ahmad , Jose Blanchet , Wei Cai

The generation of accurate neutrino-nucleus cross-section models needed for neutrino oscillation experiments require simultaneously the description of many degrees of freedom and precise calculations to model nuclear responses. The detailed…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2020-07-22 Sebastian Pina-Otey , Federico Sánchez , Thorsten Lux , Vicens Gaitan

One-step generative modeling has emerged as a leading approach to amortize the inference cost of diffusion and flow-matching models. Among distillation-free methods, MeanFlow training is notoriously unstable, with non-decreasing loss and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Juanwu Lu , Ziran Wang

Sampling conditional distributions is a fundamental task for Bayesian inference and density estimation. Generative models, such as normalizing flows and generative adversarial networks, characterize conditional distributions by learning a…

An essential problem in statistics and machine learning is the estimation of expectations involving PDFs with intractable normalizing constants. The self-normalized importance sampling (SNIS) estimator, which normalizes the IS weights, has…

Computation · Statistics 2024-07-01 Nicola Branchini , Víctor Elvira

Normalizing flows are exact-likelihood generative neural networks which approximately transform samples from a simple prior distribution to samples of the probability distribution of interest. Recent work showed that such generative models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-27 Jonas Köhler , Leon Klein , Frank Noé

Gravity inversion is a commonly applied data analysis technique in the field of geophysics. While machine learning methods have previously been explored for the problem of gravity inversion, these are deterministic approaches returning a…