Related papers: Exceedance Probability Forecasting via Regression …
This work is motivated by the analysis of the extremal behavior of buoy and satellite data describing wave conditions in the North Atlantic Ocean. The available data sets consist of time series of significant wave height (Hs) with irregular…
This paper proposes a machine learning method based on the Extra Trees (ET) algorithm for forecasting Significant Wave Heights in oceanic waters. To derive multiple features from the CDIP buoys, which make point measurements, we first…
Given multi-model ensemble climate projections, the goal is to accurately and reliably predict future sea-level rise while lowering the uncertainty. This problem is important because sea-level rise affects millions of people in coastal…
The ocean wave distribution in a specific region of space and time is described by its sea state. Knowledge about the sea states a ship encounters on a journey can be used to assess various parameters of risk and wear associated with the…
In this paper, we develop an efficient method to evaluate the temporal exceeding probability of ship motion (percentage of time for the ship motion to be above a given high threshold) in an irregular wave field. Our method builds on our…
Conformal prediction is a popular method to construct prediction intervals with marginal coverage guarantees from black-box machine learning models. In applications with potentially high-impact events, such as flooding or financial crises,…
Significant wave height is one of the most important parameters characterizing ocean waves, and accurate numerical ocean wave forecasting is crucial for coastal protection and shipping. However, due to the randomness and nonlinearity of the…
The predictability of errors in deterministic temperature forecasts is investigated. More precisely, the aim is to issue warnings whenever the differences between forecast and verification exceed a given threshold. The warnings are…
Wave impact loads on maritime structures can cause casualties, damage, pollution and operational delays. Consequently, their extreme values should be accounted for in the design of these structures. However, this is challenging, as wave…
Sea-level rise and associated flood hazards pose severe risks to the millions of people globally living in coastal zones. Models representing coastal adaptation and impacts are important tools to inform the design of strategies to manage…
In a low-order model of the general circulation of the atmosphere we examine the predictability of threshold exceedance events of certain observables. The likelihood of such binary events -- the cornerstone also for the categoric (as…
Projections of extreme sea levels (ESLs) are critical for managing coastal risks, but are made complicated by deep uncertainties. One key uncertainty is the choice of model structure used to estimate coastal hazards. Differences in model…
In many applied fields, the prediction of more severe events than those already recorded is crucial for safeguarding against potential future calamities. What-if analyses, which evaluate hypothetical scenarios up to the worst-case event,…
Oceanographic forecasting impacts various sectors of society by supporting environmental conservation and economic activities. Based on global circulation models, traditional forecasting methods are computationally expensive and slow,…
The unusually warm sea surface temperature events known as marine heatwaves (MHWs) have a profound impact on marine ecosystems. Accurate prediction of extreme MHWs has significant scientific and financial worth. However, existing methods…
Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can significantly improve decision making processes in the smart power grid for better integrating renewable energy sources such as wind. Whereas point forecasting provides a…
To accurately predict the consequences of nearshore waves, coastal engineers often employ numerical models. A variety of these models, broadly classified as either phase-resolving or phase-averaged, exist; each with strengths and…
Coastal flooding poses increasing threats to communities worldwide, necessitating accurate and hyper-local inundation forecasting for effective emergency response. However, real-world deployment of forecasting systems is often constrained…
Wave impact and run-up onto vertical obstacles are among the most important phenomena which must be taken into account in the design of coastal structures. From linear wave theory, we know that the wave amplitude on a vertical wall is twice…
Accurate analysis and forecasting of tidal level are very important tasks for human activities in oceanic and coastal areas. They can be crucial in catastrophic situations like occurrences of Tsunamis in order to provide a rapid alerting to…