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The paper deals with a generalization of the risk model with stochastic premiums where dividends are paid according to a multi-layer dividend strategy. First of all, we derive piecewise integro-differential equations for the Gerber--Shiu…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-12-19 Olena Ragulina

We consider the problem of estimating the expected value of information (the knowledge gradient) for Bayesian learning problems where the belief model is nonlinear in the parameters. Our goal is to maximize some metric, while simultaneously…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-23 Xinyu He , Warren B. Powell

We consider the problem of estimating parameters of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with discrete-time observations that are either completely or partially observed. The transition density between two observations is generally…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-09 Libo Sun , Chihoon Lee , Jennifer A. Hoeting

We address a long-standing open problem in risk theory, namely the optimal strategy to pay out dividends from an insurance surplus process, if the dividend rate can never be decreased. The optimality criterion here is to maximize the…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-06-08 Hansjoerg Albrecher , Pablo Azcue , Nora Muler

(Gradient) Expectation Maximization (EM) is a widely used algorithm for estimating the maximum likelihood of mixture models or incomplete data problems. A major challenge facing this popular technique is how to effectively preserve the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-19 Di Wang , Jiahao Ding , Lijie Hu , Zejun Xie , Miao Pan , Jinhui Xu

Probability estimation is an elementary building block of every statistical data compression algorithm. In practice probability estimation is often based on relative letter frequencies which get scaled down, when their sum is too large.…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-01-12 Christopher Mattern

This paper studies a continuous-time market {under stochastic environment} where an agent, having specified an investment horizon and a target terminal mean return, seeks to minimize the variance of the return with multiple stocks and a…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2013-02-28 Wan-Kai Pang , Yuan-Hua Ni , Xun Li , Ka-Fai Cedric Yiu

Distortion Risk Measures (DRMs) capture risk preferences in decision-making and serve as general criteria for managing uncertainty. This paper proposes gradient descent algorithms for DRM optimization based on two dual representations: the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Jinyang Jiang , Bernd Heidergott , Jiaqiao Hu , Yijie Peng

We present two approximate Bayesian inference methods for parameter estimation in partial differential equation (PDE) models with space-dependent and state-dependent parameters. We demonstrate that these methods provide accurate and…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-04 David A. Barajas-Solano , Alexandre M. Tartakovsky

We explore the statistical and economic importance of restrictions on the dynamics of risk compensation from the perspective of a real-time Bayesian learner who predicts bond excess returns using dynamic term structure models (DTSMs). The…

The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is readily used to capture a linear relationship between the daily returns of an asset and a market index. We extend this model to an intraday high-frequency setting by proposing a functional CAPM…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-03 Ufuk Beyaztas , Kaiying Ji , Han Lin Shang , Eliza Wu

We propose a numerical recipe for risk evaluation defined by a backward stochastic differential equation. Using dual representation of the risk measure, we convert the risk valuation to a stochastic control problem where the control is a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-08-24 Andrzej Ruszczynski , Jianing Yao

We propose a semiparametric method to estimate the density of private values in first-price auctions. Specifically, we model private values through a set of conditional moment restrictions and use a two-step procedure. In the first step we…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-23 Gaurab Aryal , Maria Florencia Gabrielli , Quang Vuong

This chapter presents a review of the dividend discount models starting from the basic models (Williams 1938, Gordon and Shapiro 1956) to more recent and complex models (Ghezzi and Piccardi 2003, Barbu et al. 2017, D'Amico and De Blasis…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-01-03 Guglielmo D'Amico , Riccardo De Blasis

The article considers parameter estimation constructing such as quasi-maximum likelyhood estimation and one step estimation in statistical models generated by solution of stochastic differential equation. It has been developed a software…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-03-12 Dmytro Ivanenko , Rostyslav Pogorielov

Stochastic versions of proximal methods have gained much attention in statistics and machine learning. These algorithms tend to admit simple, scalable forms, and enjoy numerical stability via implicit updates. In this work, we propose and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-09 Haoyu Jiang , Jason Xu

In this article we consider likelihood-based estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov (POMV) diffusion process with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. In particular, using the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-12 Ajay Jasra , Mohamed Maama , Raul Tempone

Jump stochastic volatility models are central to financial econometrics for volatility forecasting, portfolio risk management, and derivatives pricing. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are computationally unfeasible for the…

Applications · Statistics 2016-11-01 Eric Jacquier , Nicholas Polson , Vadim Sokolov

This paper considers the problem of computing Bayesian estimates of both states and model parameters for nonlinear state-space models. Generally, this problem does not have a tractable solution and approximations must be utilised. In this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-15 Jarrad Courts , Johannes Hendriks , Adrian Wills , Thomas Schön , Brett Ninness

Parameter inference for stochastic differential equation mixed effects models (SDEMEMs) is a challenging problem. Analytical solutions for these models are rarely available, which means that the likelihood is also intractable. In this case,…

Computation · Statistics 2019-09-30 Imke Botha , Robert Kohn , Christopher Drovandi