Related papers: Deterministic Finite-Memory Bias Estimation
We study parameter inference in simulation-based stochastic models where the analytical form of the likelihood is unknown. The main difficulty is that score evaluation as a ratio of noisy Monte Carlo estimators induces bias and instability,…
We consider the problem of least squares parameter estimation from single-trajectory data for discrete-time, unstable, closed-loop nonlinear stochastic systems, with linearly parameterised uncertainty. Assuming a region of the state space…
We consider $N$ Bernoulli random variables, which are independent conditional on a common random factor determining their probability distribution. We show that certain expected functionals of the proportion $L_N$ of variables in a given…
We consider finite-state Markov decision processes with the combined Energy-MeanPayoff objective. The controller tries to avoid running out of energy while simultaneously attaining a strictly positive mean payoff in a second dimension. We…
Cox proportional hazards model with measurement error is investigated. In Kukush et al. (2011) [Journal of Statistical Research 45, 77-94] and Chimisov and Kukush (2014) [Modern Stochastics: Theory and Applications 1, 13-32] asymptotic…
Reservoir computers (RCs) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs) can mimic any finite-state automaton in theory, and some workers demonstrated that this can hold in practice. We test the capability of generalized linear models, RCs, and Long…
We consider the Minimum Description Length principle for online sequence prediction. If the underlying model class is discrete, then the total expected square loss is a particularly interesting performance measure: (a) this quantity is…
The task of monitoring for a change in the mean of a sequence of Bernoulli random variables has been widely studied. However most existing approaches make at least one of the following assumptions, which may be violated in many real-world…
We consider the problem of modulation and estimation of a random parameter $U$ to be conveyed across a discrete memoryless channel. Upper and lower bounds are derived for the best achievable exponential decay rate of a general moment of the…
In this paper, we study finite-sample properties of the least squares estimator in first order autoregressive processes. By leveraging a result from decoupling theory, we derive upper bounds on the probability that the estimate deviates by…
We present a complete characterization of the asymptotic behaviour of a correlated Bernoulli sequence { which depends on the parameter $\theta \in [0,1]$. A martingale theory based approach will allow} us to prove versions of the law of…
Recently there has been a great deal of interest surrounding the calibration of quantum sensors using machine learning techniques. In this work, we explore the use of regression to infer a machine-learned point estimate of an unknown…
We extend the notion of estimation entropy of autonomous dynamical systems proposed by Liberzon and Mitra [1] to nonlinear dynamical systems with uncertain inputs with bounded variation. We call this new notion the {$\epsilon$}-estimation…
We prove limit theorems of an entirely new type for certain long memory regularly varying stationary infinitely divisible random processes. These theorems involve multiple phase transitions governed by how long the memory is. Apart from one…
This paper proposes a resilient state estimator for LTI discrete-time systems. The dynamic equation of the system is assumed to be affected by a bounded process noise. As to the available measurements, they are potentially corrupted by a…
Consider the problem of sampling sequentially from a finite number of $N \geq 2$ populations, specified by random variables $X^i_k$, $ i = 1,\ldots , N,$ and $k = 1, 2, \ldots$; where $X^i_k$ denotes the outcome from population $i$ the…
We develop minimax optimal risk bounds for the general learning task consisting in predicting as well as the best function in a reference set $\mathcal{G}$ up to the smallest possible additive term, called the convergence rate. When the…
In this paper, we analyze the finite sample complexity of stochastic system identification using modern tools from machine learning and statistics. An unknown discrete-time linear system evolves over time under Gaussian noise without…
The paper studies the counting process arising as a subset of births and deaths in a birth--death process on a finite state space. Whenever a birth or death occurs, the process is incremented or not depending on the outcome of an…
Motivated by applications in risk-sensitive reinforcement learning, we study mean-variance optimization in a discounted reward Markov Decision Process (MDP). Specifically, we analyze a Temporal Difference (TD) learning algorithm with linear…