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Branching Time Active Inference (Champion et al., 2021b,a) is a framework proposing to look at planning as a form of Bayesian model expansion. Its root can be found in Active Inference (Friston et al., 2016; Da Costa et al., 2020; Champion…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-15 Théophile Champion , Marek Grześ , Howard Bowman

Membership inference attacks (MIAs) aim to determine whether specific data were used to train a model. While extensively studied on classification models, their impact on time series forecasting remains largely unexplored. We address this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Nicolas Johansson , Tobias Olsson , Daniel Nilsson , Johan Östman , Fazeleh Hoseini

We propose a novel method for approximate inference in Bayesian networks (BNs). The idea is to sample data from a BN, learn a latent tree model (LTM) from the data offline, and when online, make inference with the LTM instead of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-01-16 Yi Wang , Nevin L. Zhang , Tao Chen

Advanced inference techniques allow one to reconstruct the pattern of interaction from high dimensional data sets. We focus here on the statistical properties of inferred models and argue that inference procedures are likely to yield models…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-10-09 Iacopo Mastromatteo , Matteo Marsili

The use of machine learning (ML) inference for various applications is growing drastically. ML inference services engage with users directly, requiring fast and accurate responses. Moreover, these services face dynamic workloads of…

This paper is concerned with the problems of interaction screening and nonlinear classification in a high-dimensional setting. We propose a two-step procedure, IIS-SQDA, where in the first step an innovated interaction screening (IIS)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-04 Yingying Fan , Yinfei Kong , Daoji Li , Zemin Zheng

Spatial connectivity is an important consideration when modelling infectious disease data across a geographical region. Connectivity can arise for many reasons, including shared characteristics between regions, and human or vector movement.…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-06 Sophie A Lee , Theodoros Economou , Rachel Lowe

In the following article we consider approximate Bayesian parameter inference for observation driven time series models. Such statistical models appear in a wide variety of applications, including econometrics and applied mathematics. This…

Computation · Statistics 2013-04-01 Ajay Jasra , Nikolas Kantas , Elena Ehrlich

This article introduces novel and practicable Bayesian factor analysis frameworks that are computationally feasible for moderate to large spatiotemporal data. Previous Bayesian analysis of spatiotemporal data has utilized a Bayesian factor…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-18 Yifan Cheng , Cheng Li

Identifying protein-protein interactions is crucial for a systems-level understanding of the cell. Recently, algorithms based on inverse statistical physics, e.g. Direct Coupling Analysis (DCA), have allowed to use evolutionarily related…

Biomolecules · Quantitative Biology 2020-03-25 Carlos A. Gandarilla-Pérez , Pierre Mergny , Martin Weigt , Anne-Florence Bitbol

Developing and discovering new drugs is a complex and resource-intensive endeavor that often involves substantial costs, time investment, and safety concerns. A key aspect of drug discovery involves identifying novel drug-target (DT)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-13 Rakesh Bal , Yijia Xiao , Wei Wang

We introduce a class of algorithms, termed proximal interacting particle Langevin algorithms (PIPLA), for inference and learning in latent variable models whose joint probability density is non-differentiable. Leveraging proximal Markov…

Computation · Statistics 2025-05-30 Paula Cordero Encinar , Francesca R. Crucinio , O. Deniz Akyildiz

Motion forecasting is a crucial component of autonomous driving systems, enabling the generation of accurate and smooth future trajectories to ensure safe navigation to the destination. In previous methods, potential future trajectories are…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Shijie Li , Xun Xu , Si Yong Yeo , Xulei Yang

The integration of longitudinal measurements and survival time in statistical modeling offers a powerful framework for capturing the interplay between these two essential outcomes, particularly when they exhibit associations. However, in…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-11 Taban Baghfalaki , Mojtaba Ganjali , Rui Martins

Spatiotemporal data analysis with massive zeros is widely used in many areas such as epidemiology and public health. We use a Bayesian framework to fit zero-inflated negative binomial models and employ a set of latent variables from…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-08 Qing He , Hsin-Hsiung Huang

Spatial interference (SI) occurs when the treatment at one location affects the outcomes at other locations. Accounting for spatial interference in spatiotemporal settings poses further challenges as interference violates the stable unit…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-02 Sahara Ali , Omar Faruque , Jianwu Wang

We propose a nonparametric method for detecting nonlinear causal relationship within a set of multidimensional discrete time series, by using sparse additive models (SpAMs). We show that, when the input to the SpAM is a $\beta$-mixing time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-04-27 Yingxiang Yang , Adams Wei Yu , Zhaoran Wang , Tuo Zhao

In this article, we propose an adapted sequential Monte Carlo approximate Bayesian computation (SMC-ABC) algorithm for network inference in coupled stochastic differential equations (SDEs) used for multivariate time series modeling. Our…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-27 Susanne Ditlevsen , Massimiliano Tamborrino , Irene Tubikanec

We introduce efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for inference and model determination in multivariate and matrix-variate Gaussian graphical models. Our framework is based on the G-Wishart prior for the precision matrix associated…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-05-25 Adrian Dobra , Alex Lenkoski , Abel Rodriguez

This paper introduces the R package INLAjoint, designed as a toolbox for fitting a diverse range of regression models addressing both longitudinal and survival outcomes. INLAjoint relies on the computational efficiency of the integrated…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-04 Denis Rustand , Janet van Niekerk , Elias Teixeira Krainski , Håvard Rue