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Instrumental variables are a popular study design for the estimation of treatment effects in the presence of unobserved confounders. In the canonical instrumental variables design, the instrument is a binary variable. In many settings,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-10 Prabrisha Rakshit , Alexander Levis , Luke Keele

Estimation of a conditional mean (linking a set of features to an outcome of interest) is a fundamental statistical task. While there is an appeal to flexible nonparametric procedures, effective estimation in many classical nonparametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-08 Tianyu Zhang , Noah Simon

Causal inference studies whether the presence of a variable influences an observed outcome. As measured by quantities such as the "average treatment effect," this paradigm is employed across numerous biological fields, from vaccine and drug…

We consider a causal effect that is confounded by an unobserved variable, but with observed proxy variables of the confounder. We show that, with at least two independent proxy variables satisfying a certain rank condition, the causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-29 Wang Miao , Zhi Geng , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Inference in popular nonparametric Bayesian models typically relies on sampling or other approximations. This paper presents a general methodology for constructing novel tractable nonparametric Bayesian methods by applying the kernel trick…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-08-15 Ferenc Huszár , Simon Lacoste-Julien

We propose a semiparametric framework for causal inference with right-censored survival outcomes and many weak invalid instruments, motivated by Mendelian randomization in biobank studies where classical methods may fail. We adopt an…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-06 Qiushi Bu , Wen Su , Xingqiu Zhao , Zhonghua Liu

The paper reviews methods that seek to draw causal inference from observational data and demonstrates how they can be applied to empirical problems in engineering research. It presents a framework for causal identification based on the…

Applications · Statistics 2022-11-28 Daniel J Graham

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the covariance kernel and its eigenvalues and eigenfunctions from sparse, irregularly observed, noise corrupted and (possibly) correlated functional data. We present a method based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2008-07-09 Debashis Paul , Jie Peng

Whereas confidence intervals are used to assess uncertainty due to unmeasured individuals, confounding intervals can be used to assess uncertainty due to unmeasured attributes. Previously, we have introduced a methodology for computing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-13 Brian Knaeble , R Mitchell Hughes

Evaluating causal treatment effects in observational studies requires addressing confounding. While the back-door criterion enables identification through adjustment for observed covariates, it fails in the presence of unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-04 Anna Guo , David Benkeser , Razieh Nabi

Causal discovery estimates the underlying physical process that generates the observed data: does X cause Y or does Y cause X? Current methodologies use structural conditions to turn the causal query into a statistical query, when only…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-14 Martin Jørgensen , Søren Hauberg

This paper studies the cumulative causal effects of sequential treatments in the presence of unmeasured confounders. It is a critical issue in sequential decision-making scenarios where treatment decisions and outcomes dynamically evolve…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-15 Yingrong Wang , Anpeng Wu , Baohong Li , Ziyang Xiao , Ruoxuan Xiong , Qing Han , Kun Kuang

This paper clarifies a fundamental difference between causal inference and traditional statistical inference by formalizing a mathematical distinction between their respective parameters. We connect two major approaches to causal inference,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-29 Muye Liu , Jun Xie

This work introduces the causal bootstrap, a framework for bounding smeared spectral observables from finite non-perturbative Euclidean data. The method optimizes over the convex set of positive spectral densities compatible with the data…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2026-05-21 Ryan Abbott , Sarah Fields , William I. Jay , Patrick Oare , Matteo Saccardi

Consider the nonparametric regression model Y=m(X)+E, where the function m is smooth but unknown, and E is independent of X. An estimator of the density of the error term E is proposed and its weak consistency is obtained. The contribution…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-12-25 Rawane Samb

While causal models are becoming one of the mainstays of machine learning, the problem of uncertainty quantification in causal inference remains challenging. In this paper, we study the causal data fusion problem, where datasets pertaining…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-08 Siu Lun Chau , Jean-François Ton , Javier González , Yee Whye Teh , Dino Sejdinovic

In this paper, we address the challenge of performing counterfactual inference with observational data via Bayesian nonparametric regression adjustment, with a focus on high-dimensional settings featuring multiple actions and multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-22 Alberto Caron , Gianluca Baio , Ioanna Manolopoulou

Conditional kernel mean embeddings form an attractive nonparametric framework for representing conditional means of functions, describing the observation processes for many complex models. However, the recovery of the original underlying…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-06-04 Kelvin Hsu , Fabio Ramos

We consider debiased inference on finite-dimensional functionals of infinite-dimensional least-squares solutions to inverse problems as a way to avoid having to assume exact solutions exist. Such assumptions are substantive and not…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-27 Zikai Shen , Nathan Kallus , Dimitri Meunier , Houssam Zenati , Arthur Gretton , Aurélien Bibaut

Instrumental variable methods provide useful tools for inferring causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. To apply these methods with large-scale data sets, a major challenge is to find valid instruments from a possibly…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-24 Xinyi Zhang , Linbo Wang , Stanislav Volgushev , Dehan Kong