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This paper proposes a novel uncertainty quantification framework for computationally demanding systems characterized by a large vector of non-Gaussian uncertainties. It combines state-of-the-art techniques in advanced Monte Carlo sampling…

Computation · Statistics 2018-03-05 Phaedon-Stelios Koutsourelakis

With increasing computational demand, Neural-Network (NN) based models are being developed as pre-trained surrogates for different thermohydraulics phenomena. An area where this approach has shown promise is in developing higher-fidelity…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2024-12-13 Cody Grogan , Som Dutta , Mauricio Tano , Somayajulu L. N. Dhulipala , Izabela Gutowska

The goal of this research is to derive an approach to assess uncertainty in an arbitrary volume conditioned by sampling data, without using geostatistical simulation. We have accomplished this goal by deriving an numerical tool suitable for…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-22 Alvaro I. Riquelme , Julian M. Ortiz

Statistical inference in high dimensional settings has recently attracted enormous attention within the literature. However, most published work focuses on the parametric linear regression problem. This paper considers an important…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-14 Qi Gao , Randy C. S. Lai , Thomas C. M. Lee , Yao Li

Mathematical models of biological systems are beginning to be used for safety-critical applications, where large numbers of repeated model evaluations are required to perform uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. Most of…

Computation · Statistics 2018-05-28 Sanmitra Ghosh , David J. Gavaghan , Gary R. Mirams

Multi-fidelity methods are prominently used when cheaply-obtained, but possibly biased and noisy, observations must be effectively combined with limited or expensive true data in order to construct reliable models. This arises in both…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-19 Kurt Cutajar , Mark Pullin , Andreas Damianou , Neil Lawrence , Javier González

Uncertainty quantification in automated image analysis is highly desired in many applications. Typically, machine learning models in classification or segmentation are only developed to provide binary answers; however, quantifying the…

In computational materials science, mechanical properties are typically extracted from simulations by means of analysis routines that seek to mimic their experimental counterparts. However, simulated data often exhibit uncertainties that…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-12-07 Paul N. Patrone , Anthony J. Kearsley , Andrew M. Dienstfrey

Various real-world applications involve modeling complex systems with immense uncertainty and optimizing multiple objectives based on the uncertain model. Quantifying the impact of the model uncertainty on the given operational objectives…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-06-09 Byung-Jun Yoon , Xiaoning Qian , Edward R. Dougherty

Computational hemodynamics models are becoming increasingly useful in the management and prognosis of complex, multiscale pathologies, including those attributed to the development of pulmonary vascular disease. However, diseases like…

Tissues and Organs · Quantitative Biology 2025-06-06 Mitchel J. Colebank , Naomi C. Chesler

While recent foundation models have enabled significant breakthroughs in monocular depth estimation, a clear path towards safe and reliable deployment in the real-world remains elusive. Metric depth estimation, which involves predicting…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-01-15 Steven Landgraf , Rongjun Qin , Markus Ulrich

We present an information-based uncertainty quantification method for general Markov Random Fields. Markov Random Fields (MRF) are structured, probabilistic graphical models over undirected graphs, and provide a fundamental unifying…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-20 Panagiota Birmpa , Markos A. Katsoulakis

Kinetic equations play a major rule in modeling large systems of interacting particles. Uncertainties may be due to various reasons, like lack of knowledge on the microscopic interaction details or incomplete informations at the boundaries.…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-05-01 Giacomo Dimarco , Lorenzo Pareschi

Computational molecular modeling and visualization has seen significant progress in recent years with sev- eral molecular modeling and visualization software systems in use today. Nevertheless the molecular biology community lacks…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2016-05-20 Muhibur Rasheed , Nathan Clement , Abhishek Bhowmick , Chandrajit Bajaj

While neural networks have demonstrated impressive performance across various tasks, accurately quantifying uncertainty in their predictions is essential to ensure their trustworthiness and enable widespread adoption in critical systems.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-11 Joseph Wilson , Chris van der Heide , Liam Hodgkinson , Fred Roosta

Due to their intuitive appeal, Bayesian methods of modeling and uncertainty quantification have become popular in modern machine and deep learning. When providing a prior distribution over the parameter space, it is straightforward to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-05 Ivan Melev , Goeran Kauermann

Quantifying uncertainty in a model's predictions is important as it enables the safety of an AI system to be increased by acting on the model's output in an informed manner. This is crucial for applications where the cost of an error is…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-05-31 Aria Khoshsirat

In the context of Monte Carlo (MC) simulation of particle transport Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) addresses the issue of predicting non statistical errors affecting the physical results, i.e. errors deriving mainly from uncertainties in…

Computational Physics · Physics 2015-06-18 Paolo Saracco , Maria Grazia Pia

In this paper, we propose a unified approach to harness quantum conformal methods for multi-output distributions, with a particular emphasis on two experimental paradigms: (i) a standard 2-qubit circuit scenario producing a four-dimensional…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-01-22 Emre Tasar

Uncertainty plays a crucial role in the machine learning field. Both model trustworthiness and performance require the understanding of uncertainty, especially for models used in high-stake applications where errors can cause cataclysmic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-29 Shuo Chen