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This paper introduces new efficient algorithms for two problems: sampling conditional on vertex degrees in unweighted graphs, and sampling conditional on vertex strengths in weighted graphs. The algorithms can sample conditional on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-19 James Scott , Axel Gandy

This paper introduces a new causal structure learning method for nonstationary time series data, a common data type found in fields such as finance, economics, healthcare, and environmental science. Our work builds upon the constraint-based…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-06-10 Agathe Sadeghi , Achintya Gopal , Mohammad Fesanghary

We present GO-CBED, a goal-oriented Bayesian framework for sequential causal experimental design. Unlike conventional approaches that select interventions aimed at inferring the full causal model, GO-CBED directly maximizes the expected…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-11 Zheyu Zhang , Jiayuan Dong , Jie Liu , Xun Huan

We consider the problem of inferring the directed, causal graph from observational data, assuming no hidden confounders. We take an information theoretic approach, and make three main contributions. First, we show how through algorithmic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-07 Alexander Marx , Jilles Vreeken

One of the most common mistakes made when performing data analysis is attributing causal meaning to regression coefficients. Formally, a causal effect can only be computed if it is identifiable from a combination of observational data and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-10-31 Daniel Kumor , Bryant Chen , Elias Bareinboim

The discovery of structure from time series data is a key problem in fields of study working with complex systems. Most identifiability results and learning algorithms assume the underlying dynamics to be discrete in time. Comparatively…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-04 Alexis Bellot , Kim Branson , Mihaela van der Schaar

Estimation of differences in conditional independence graphs (CIGs) of two time series Gaussian graphical models (TSGGMs) is investigated where the two TSGGMs are known to have similar structure. The TSGGM structure is encoded in the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-09 Jitendra K Tugnait

Identifying cause-effect relations among variables is a key step in the decision-making process. While causal inference requires randomized experiments, researchers and policymakers are increasingly using observational studies to test…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-11-22 Md Saiful Islam , Md Sarowar Morshed , Md. Noor-E-Alam

Learning causal structure is useful in many areas of artificial intelligence, including planning, robotics, and explanation. Constraint-based structure learning algorithms such as PC use conditional independence (CI) tests to infer causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-15 Erica Cai , Andrew McGregor , David Jensen

Real-world problems, for example in climate applications, often require causal reasoning on spatially gridded time series data or data with comparable structure. While the underlying system is often believed to behave similarly at different…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-16 Martin Rabel , Jakob Runge

We present an operator-free, measure-theoretic approach to the conditional mean embedding (CME) as a random variable taking values in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. While the kernel mean embedding of unconditional distributions has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-11 Junhyung Park , Krikamol Muandet

It is known that from purely observational data, a causal DAG is identifiable only up to its Markov equivalence class, and for many ground truth DAGs, the direction of a large portion of the edges will be remained unidentified. The golden…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-15 AmirEmad Ghassami , Saber Salehkaleybar , Negar Kiyavash

Causal discovery methods are intrinsically constrained by the set of assumptions needed to ensure structure identifiability. Moreover additional restrictions are often imposed in order to simplify the inference task: this is the case for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-07 Francesco Montagna , Nicoletta Noceti , Lorenzo Rosasco , Kun Zhang , Francesco Locatello

We propose a semiparametric framework for causal inference with right-censored survival outcomes and many weak invalid instruments, motivated by Mendelian randomization in biobank studies where classical methods may fail. We adopt an…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-06 Qiushi Bu , Wen Su , Xingqiu Zhao , Zhonghua Liu

We give a new consistent scoring function for structure learning of Bayesian networks. In contrast to traditional approaches to score-based structure learning, such as BDeu or MDL, the complexity penalty that we propose is data-dependent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-05-13 Eliot Brenner , David Sontag

Testing for the conditional independence structure in data is a fundamental and critical task in statistics and machine learning, which finds natural applications in causal discovery - a highly relevant problem to many scientific…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-03 Bao Duong , Nu Hoang , Thin Nguyen

Constraint-based structure learning algorithms infer the causal structure of multivariate systems from observational data by determining an equivalent class of causal structures compatible with the conditional independencies in the data.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-22 Daniel Chicharro , Stefano Panzeri , Ilya Shpitser

Causal structure discovery from observational data is fundamental to the causal understanding of autonomous systems such as medical decision support systems, advertising campaigns and self-driving cars. This is essential to solve well-known…

Constraint-based causal discovery methods leverage conditional independence tests to infer causal relationships in a wide variety of applications. Just as the majority of machine learning methods, existing work focuses on studying…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-27 Siyuan Guo , Viktor Tóth , Bernhard Schölkopf , Ferenc Huszár

Learning the dependence structure among variables in complex systems is a central problem across medical, natural, and social sciences. These structures can be naturally represented by graphs, and the task of inferring such graphs from data…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Lucas Kook , Søren Wengel Mogensen
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