Related papers: Fast and Accurate Variational Inference for Large …
In this paper, we show that the recent integration of statistical models with deep recurrent neural networks provides a new way of formulating volatility (the degree of variation of time series) models that have been widely used in time…
This paper develops a non-Bayesian methodology to analyze the time-varying structure of international linkages and market efficiency in G7 countries. We consider a non-Bayesian time-varying vector autoregressive (TV-VAR) model, and apply it…
We consider the problem of learning a Gaussian variational approximation to the posterior distribution for a high-dimensional parameter, where we impose sparsity in the precision matrix to reflect appropriate conditional independence…
This work considers variational Bayesian inference as an inexpensive and scalable alternative to a fully Bayesian approach in the context of sparsity-promoting priors. In particular, the priors considered arise from scale mixtures of Normal…
We propose a unified, yet simple to code, non-conjugate variational Bayes algorithm for posterior approximation of generic Bayesian generalized mixed effect models. Specifically, we consider regression models identified by a linear…
Variational inference has recently emerged as a popular alternative to the classical Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in large-scale Bayesian inference. The core idea is to trade statistical accuracy for computational efficiency. In this…
In this paper we propose BVAR-connect, a variational inference approach to a Bayesian multi-subject vector autoregressive (VAR) model for inference on effective brain connectivity based on resting-state functional MRI data. The modeling…
We propose a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model for mixed-frequency data. Our model is based on the mean-adjusted parametrization of the VAR and allows for an explicit prior on the 'steady states' (unconditional means) of the…
We propose a variational Bayesian (VB) procedure for high-dimensional linear model inferences with heavy tail shrinkage priors, such as student-t prior. Theoretically, we establish the consistency of the proposed VB method and prove that…
Several recent works have explored stochastic gradient methods for variational inference that exploit the geometry of the variational-parameter space. However, the theoretical properties of these methods are not well-understood and these…
Bayesian inference provides principled uncertainty quantification, but accurate posterior sampling with MCMC can be computationally prohibitive for modern applications. Variational inference (VI) offers a scalable alternative and often…
Variational inference, as an alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, has played a transformative role in enabling scalable computation for complex Bayesian models. Nevertheless, existing approaches often depend on either rigid…
We propose and investigate new complementary methodologies for estimating predictive variance networks in regression neural networks. We derive a locally aware mini-batching scheme that result in sparse robust gradients, and show how to…
Heterogeneity in multinomial choice data is often accounted for using logit models with random coefficients. Such models are called "mixed", but they can be difficult to estimate for large datasets. We review current Bayesian variational…
We conduct non-asymptotic analysis on the mean-field variational inference for approximating posterior distributions in complex Bayesian models that may involve latent variables. We show that the mean-field approximation to the posterior…
We highlight a pitfall when applying stochastic variational inference to general Bayesian networks. For global random variables approximated by an exponential family distribution, natural gradient steps, commonly starting from a unit length…
We propose a new approach to Bayesian prediction that caters for models with a large number of parameters and is robust to model misspecification. Given a class of high-dimensional (but parametric) predictive models, this new approach…
The causal (belief) network is a well-known graphical structure for representing independencies in a joint probability distribution. The exact methods and the approximation methods, which perform probabilistic inference in causal networks,…
We present a scalable approach to performing approximate fully Bayesian inference in generic state space models. The proposed method is an alternative to particle MCMC that provides fully Bayesian inference of both the dynamic latent states…
We consider weighted directed networks for analysing, over the period 2000-2013, the interdependencies between volatilities of a large panel of stocks belonging to the S\&P100 index. In particular, we focus on the so-called {\it Long-Run…