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Counterfactual prediction is a fundamental task in decision-making. G-computation is a method for estimating expected counterfactual outcomes under dynamic time-varying treatment strategies. Existing G-computation implementations have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-25 Rui Li , Zach Shahn , Jun Li , Mingyu Lu , Prithwish Chakraborty , Daby Sow , Mohamed Ghalwash , Li-wei H. Lehman

The vector field of a controlled differential equation (CDE) describes the relationship between a control path and the evolution of a solution path. Neural CDEs (NCDEs) treat time series data as observations from a control path,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-24 Benjamin Walker , Andrew D. McLeod , Tiexin Qin , Yichuan Cheng , Haoliang Li , Terry Lyons

Causal effect estimation (CEE) provides a crucial tool for predicting the unobserved counterfactual outcome for an entity. As CEE relaxes the requirement for ``perfect'' counterfactual samples (e.g., patients with identical attributes and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Hechuan Wen , Tong Chen , Guanhua Ye , Li Kheng Chai , Shazia Sadiq , Hongzhi Yin

We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation. Unlike machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation for model selection as we do not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-30 Divyat Mahajan , Ioannis Mitliagkas , Brady Neal , Vasilis Syrgkanis

We present a data-driven control framework for partial differential equations (PDEs). Our approach integrates Time-Integrated Deep Operator Networks (TI-DeepONets) as differentiable PDE surrogate models within the Differentiable Predictive…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Dibakar Roy Sarkar , Ján Drgoňa , Somdatta Goswami

Counterfactual explanations are a prominent example of post-hoc interpretability methods in the explainable Artificial Intelligence research domain. They provide individuals with alternative scenarios and a set of recommendations to achieve…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-01-20 Andrea Ferrario , Michele Loi

We develop a principled framework for discovering causal structure in partial differential equations (PDEs) using physics-informed neural networks and counterfactual perturbations. Unlike classical residual minimization or sparse regression…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-26 Ronald Katende

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) offer a human-understandable way to explain decisions by identifying specific changes to the input parameters of a base or present model that would lead to a desired change in the outcome. For optimization…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-01-06 Felix Engelhardt , Jannis Kurtz , Ş. İlker Birbil , Ted Ralphs

Choosing optimal (or at least better) policies is an important problem in domains from medicine to education to finance and many others. One approach to this problem is through controlled experiments/trials - but controlled experiments are…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-02-26 Onur Atan , William R. Zame , M van der Schaar

The Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is a foundational metric in causal inference, widely used to assess intervention efficacy in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). However, in many applications -- particularly in healthcare -- this static…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-23 Julianna Piskorz , Krzysztof Kacprzyk , Harry Amad , Mihaela van der Schaar

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) are advocated as being ideally suited to providing algorithmic recourse for subjects affected by the predictions of machine learning models. While CEs can be beneficial to affected individuals, recent work…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-06 Junqi Jiang , Francesco Leofante , Antonio Rago , Francesca Toni

Counterfactual Explanations (CFEs) interpret machine learning models by identifying the smallest change to input features needed to change the model's prediction to a desired output. For classification tasks, CFEs determine how close a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-01 Margarita A. Guerrero , Cristian R. Rojas

From personalised medicine to targeted advertising, it is an inherent task to provide a sequence of decisions with historical covariates and outcome data. This requires understanding of both the dynamics and heterogeneity of treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-22 Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla , Yi Yu

Counterfactual explanations suggest what should be different in the input instance to change the outcome of an AI system. When dealing with counterfactual explanations in the field of Predictive Process Monitoring, however, control flow…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-26 Andrei Buliga , Chiara Di Francescomarino , Chiara Ghidini , Ivan Donadello , Fabrizio Maria Maggi

Counterfactual explanations offer an intuitive and straightforward way to explain black-box models and offer algorithmic recourse to individuals. To address the need for plausible explanations, existing work has primarily relied on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-19 Patrick Altmeyer , Mojtaba Farmanbar , Arie van Deursen , Cynthia C. S. Liem

In medical practice, treatments are selected based on the expected causal effects on patient outcomes. Here, the gold standard for estimating causal effects are randomized controlled trials; however, such trials are costly and sometimes…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-24 Dennis Frauen , Tobias Hatt , Valentyn Melnychuk , Stefan Feuerriegel

Estimating the effect of a treatment on a given outcome, conditioned on a vector of covariates, is central in many applications. However, learning the impact of a treatment on a continuous temporal response, when the covariates suffer…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-11 Guangyi Zhang , Reza Ashrafi , Anne Juuti , Kirsi Pietiläinen , Pekka Marttinen

Learning underlying dynamics from data is important and challenging in many real-world scenarios. Incorporating differential equations (DEs) to design continuous networks has drawn much attention recently, however, most prior works make…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-03 Yesom Park , Jaemoo Choi , Changyeon Yoon , Chang hoon Song , Myungjoo Kang

Scientists regularly pose questions about treatment effects on outcomes conditional on a post-treatment event. However, causal inference in such settings requires care, even in perfectly executed randomized experiments. Recently, the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-19 Chan Park , Mats Stensrud , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Causal effect estimation for dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) contributes to sequential decision making. However, censoring and time-dependent confounding under DTRs are challenging as the amount of observational data declines over time due…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-27 Adi Lin , Jie Lu , Junyu Xuan , Fujin Zhu , Guangquan Zhang
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