English
Related papers

Related papers: Explainable expected goal models for performance a…

200 papers

Do NFL teams make rational decisions? What factors potentially affect the probability of wining a game in NFL? How can a team come back from a demoralizing interception? In this study we begin by examining the hypothesis of rational…

Applications · Statistics 2017-02-08 Konstantinos Pelechrinis , Evangelos Papalexakis

Researchers in explainable artificial intelligence have developed numerous methods for helping users understand the predictions of complex supervised learning models. By contrast, explaining the $\textit{uncertainty}$ of model outputs has…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-01 David S. Watson , Joshua O'Hara , Niek Tax , Richard Mudd , Ido Guy

It is not surprise for machine learning models to provide decent prediction accuracy of soccer games outcomes based on various objective metrics. However, the performance is not that decent in terms of predicting difficult and valuable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-05 Liyao Lu , Qiang Lyu

The interconnected nature of the economic variables influencing a firm's performance makes the prediction of a company's earning trend a challenging task. Existing methodologies often rely on simplistic models and financial ratios failing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-30 Marco Piazza , Mauro Passacantando , Francesca Magli , Federica Doni , Andrea Amaduzzi , Enza Messina

Cricket is unarguably one of the most popular sports in the world. Predicting the outcome of a cricket match has become a fundamental problem as we are advancing in the field of machine learning. Multiple researchers have tried to predict…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-08-24 Harsh Mittal , Deepak Rikhari , Jitendra Kumar , Ashutosh Kumar Singh

This study develops a hierarchical Bayesian framework that integrates expert domain knowledge to quantify player-specific effects in expected goals (xG) estimation, addressing a limitation of standard models that treat all players as…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-12-01 Mikayil Mahmudlu , Oktay Karakuş , Hasan Arkadaş

Football (soccer) is a sport that is characterised by complex game play, where players perform a variety of actions, such as passes, shots, tackles, fouls, in order to score goals, and ultimately win matches. Accurately forecasting the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Michael Horton , Patrick Lucey

Goals are results of pin-point shots and it is a pivotal decision in soccer when, how and where to shoot. The main contribution of this study is two-fold. At first, after showing that there exists high spatial correlation in the data of…

Applications · Statistics 2021-04-08 Soudeep Deb , Debangan Dey

When predictions support decisions they may influence the outcome they aim to predict. We call such predictions performative; the prediction influences the target. Performativity is a well-studied phenomenon in policy-making that has so far…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-02 Juan C. Perdomo , Tijana Zrnic , Celestine Mendler-Dünner , Moritz Hardt

Analyzing football score data with statistical techniques, we investigate how the not purely random, but highly co-operative nature of the game is reflected in averaged properties such as the probability distributions of scored goals for…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-04-02 Elmar Bittner , Andreas Nussbaumer , Wolfhard Janke , Martin Weigel

Machine learning models have become increasingly popular for predicting the results of soccer matches, however, the lack of publicly-available benchmark datasets has made model evaluation challenging. The 2023 Soccer Prediction Challenge…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-27 Calvin Yeung , Rory Bunker , Rikuhei Umemoto , Keisuke Fujii

Predicting the results of soccer matches is of great interest. This is not only due to the popularity of the sport and the joy of private "betting rounds", but also due to the large sports betting market. Where previously expert knowledge…

Applications · Statistics 2025-07-09 Mirko Fischer , Andreas Heuer

Multi-Object Tracking (MOT) plays a critical role in analyzing player behavior from videos, enabling performance evaluation. Current MOT methods are often evaluated using publicly available datasets. However, most of these focus on everyday…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-11-13 Rintaro Otsubo , Kanta Sawafuji , Hideo Saito

Understanding the factors that shape students' mathematics performance is vital for designing effective educational policies. This study applies explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques to PISA 2018 data to predict math…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-26 Liu Liu , Rui Dai

In this work we present a new physics-informed machine learning model that can be used to analyze kinematic data from an instrumented mouthguard and detect impacts to the head. Monitoring player impacts is vitally important to understanding…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2022-03-21 Samuel J. Raymond , Nicholas J. Cecchi , Hossein Vahid Alizadeh , Ashlyn A. Callan , Eli Rice , Yuzhe Liu , Zhou Zhou , Michael Zeineh , David B. Camarillo

Machine learning models are becoming increasingly popular in different types of settings. This is mainly caused by their ability to achieve a level of predictive performance that is hard to match by human experts in this new era of big…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-20 Luis Torgo , Paulo Azevedo , Ines Areosa

A hockey player's plus-minus measures the difference between goals scored by and against that player's team while the player was on the ice. This measures only a marginal effect, failing to account for the influence of the others he is…

Applications · Statistics 2016-01-27 Robert B. Gramacy , Matt Taddy , Sen Tian

We address goal-based imitation learning, where the aim is to output the symbolic goal from a third-person video demonstration. This enables the robot to plan for execution and reproduce the same goal in a completely different environment.…

Understanding football tactics is crucial for managers and analysts. Previous research has proposed models based on spatial and kinematic equations, but these are computationally expensive. Also, Reinforcement learning approaches use player…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-06-23 Kenjiro Ide , Taiga Someya , Kohei Kawaguchi , Keisuke Fujii

Sports analysis has gained paramount importance for coaches, scouts, and fans. Recently, computer vision researchers have taken on the challenge of collecting the necessary data by proposing several methods of automatic player and ball…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-04-11 Pegah Rahimian , Laszlo Toka