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Given a monocular video of a soccer match, this paper presents a computational model to estimate the most feasible pass at any given time. The method leverages offensive player's orientation (plus their location) and opponents' spatial…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-04-16 Adrià Arbués-Sangüesa , Adrián Martín , Javier Fernández , Coloma Ballester , Gloria Haro

In this work, a machine learning approach is developed for predicting the outcomes of football matches. The novelty of this research lies in the utilisation of the Kelly Index to first classify matches into categories where each one denotes…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-30 Yiming Ren , Teo Susnjak

In this paper, we present a new application-focused benchmark dataset and results from a set of baseline Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning models for prediction of match outcomes for games of football (soccer). By doing so we…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2020-12-09 Ryan Beal , Stuart E. Middleton , Timothy J. Norman , Sarvapali D. Ramchurn

This study employs Bayesian methodologies to explore the influence of player or positional factors in predicting the probability of a shot resulting in a goal, measured by the expected goals (xG) metric. Utilising publicly available data…

Applications · Statistics 2025-01-14 Alexander Scholtes , Oktay Karakuş

Although a recent shift has been made in the field of predictive process monitoring to use models from the explainable artificial intelligence field, the evaluation still occurs mainly through performance-based metrics, thus not accounting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-01 Alexander Stevens , Johannes De Smedt

Over the last few decades, the player recruitment process in professional football has evolved into a multi-billion industry and has thus become of vital importance. To gain insights into the general level of their candidate reinforcements,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-09-17 Bart Aalbers , Jan Van Haaren

Estimating win probability is one of the classic modeling tasks of sports analytics. Many widely used win probability estimators use machine learning to fit the relationship between a binary win/loss outcome variable and certain game-state…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-21 Ryan S. Brill , Ronald Yurko , Abraham J. Wyner

A myriad of different data are generated to characterize a soccer match. Here we discuss which performance indicators are particularly helpful to forecast the future results of a team via an estimation of the underlying team strengths with…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-03-10 Andreas Heuer

Accurate prediction of FIFA World Cup match outcomes holds significant value for analysts, coaches, bettors, and fans. This paper presents a machine learning framework specifically designed to forecast match winners in FIFA World Cup. By…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-07 Ali Al-Bustami , Zaid Ghazal

In-game win probability models, which provide a sports team's likelihood of winning at each point in a game based on historical observations, are becoming increasingly popular. In baseball, basketball and American football, they have become…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-16 Pieter Robberechts , Jan Van Haaren , Jesse Davis

The emerging progress of eSports lacks the tools for ensuring high-quality analytics and training in Pro and amateur eSports teams. We report on an Artificial Intelligence (AI) enabled solution for predicting the eSports player in-game…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2021-08-25 Anton Smerdov , Evgeny Burnaev , Andrey Somov , Anton Stepanov

This paper introduces the Expected Booking (xB) model, a novel metric designed to estimate the likelihood of a foul resulting in a yellow card in football. Through three iterative experiments, employing ensemble methods, the model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-18 Adnan Azmat , Su Su Yi

We investigated the temporal distribution of goals in soccer using event-level data from 3,433 matches across 21 leagues and competitions. Contrary to the prevailing notion of randomness, we found that the probability of a goal being scored…

In the last years, scientific and industrial research has experienced a growing interest in acquiring large annotated data sets to train artificial intelligence algorithms for tackling problems in different domains. In this context, we have…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2021-03-09 Silvio Barra , Salvatore M. Carta , Alessandro Giuliani , Alessia Pisu , Alessandro Sebastian Podda , DanieleRiboni

The problem of anticipating human actions is an inherently uncertain one. However, we can reduce this uncertainty if we have a sense of the goal that the actor is trying to achieve. Here, we present an action anticipation model that…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-08-22 Debaditya Roy , Basura Fernando

Though athletics statistics are abundant, it is a difficult task to quantitatively compare performances from different events of track, field, and road running in a meaningful way. There are several commonly-used methods, but each has its…

Applications · Statistics 2014-08-27 Brian Godsey

Machine learning has become a common approach to predicting the outcomes of soccer matches, and the body of literature in this domain has grown substantially in the past decade and a half. This chapter discusses available datasets, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-13 Rory Bunker , Calvin Yeung , Keisuke Fujii

Elite football is believed to have evolved in recent years, yet systematic evidence for the pace and form of that change remains sparse. Drawing on event-level records for 13,018 matches across ten top-tier men's and women's leagues in…

The availability of massive data about sports activities offers nowadays the opportunity to quantify the relation between performance and success. In this study, we analyze more than 6,000 games and 10 million events in six European leagues…

Applications · Statistics 2017-11-17 Luca Pappalardo , Paolo Cintia

Soccer attracts the attention of many researchers and professionals in the sports industry. Therefore, the incorporation of science into the sport is constantly growing, with increasing investments in performance analysis and sports…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2024-09-23 Eduardo Alves Baratela , Felipe Jordão Xavier , Thomas Peron , Paulino Ribeiro Villas-Boas , Francisco Aparecido Rodrigues