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In this article, we address the issues that come up in the design of importance sampling schemes for rare events associated to stochastic dynamical systems. We focus on the issue of metastability and on the effect of multiple scales. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-07-28 Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

We describe an adaptive importance sampling algorithm for rare events that is based on a dual stochastic control formulation of a path sampling problem. Specifically, we focus on path functionals that have the form of cumulate generating…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-01-30 Omar Kebiri , Lara Neureither , Carsten Hartmann

We consider systems of slow--fast diffusions with small noise in the slow component. We construct provably logarithmic asymptotically optimal importance schemes for the estimation of rare events based on the moderate deviations principle.…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-01-07 Matthew R. Morse , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

Deep neural networks, when optimized with sufficient data, provide accurate representations of high-dimensional functions; in contrast, function approximation techniques that have predominated in scientific computing do not scale well with…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2021-03-15 Grant M. Rotskoff , Andrew R. Mitchell , Eric Vanden-Eijnden

In this paper the connection between stochastic optimal control and reinforcement learning is investigated. Our main motivation is to apply importance sampling to sampling rare events which can be reformulated as an optimal control problem.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-02-16 Jannes Quer , Enric Ribera Borrell

Importance sampling is a rare event simulation technique used in Monte Carlo simulations to bias the sampling distribution towards the rare event of interest. By assigning appropriate weights to sampled points, importance sampling allows…

We propose a sampling-based trajectory optimization methodology for constrained problems. We extend recent works on stochastic search to deal with box control constraints,as well as nonlinear state constraints for discrete dynamical…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-11-13 George I. Boutselis , Ziyi Wang , Evangelos A. Theodorou

In this paper we combine two powerful computational techniques, well-tempered metadynamics and time lagged independent component analysis. The aim is to develop a new tool for studying rare events and exploring complex free energy…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-12-08 James McCarty , Michele Parrinello

Driven by applications in telecommunication networks, we explore the simulation task of estimating rare event probabilities for tandem queues in their steady state. Existing literature has recognized that importance sampling methods can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-22 Ruoning Zhao , Xinyun Chen

Importance sampling is a technique that is commonly used to speed up Monte Carlo simulation of rare events. However, little is known regarding the design of efficient importance sampling algorithms in the context of queueing networks. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Paul Dupuis , Ali Devin Sezer , Hui Wang

Sampling is an important tool for estimating large, complex sums and integrals over high dimensional spaces. For instance, important sampling has been used as an alternative to exact methods for inference in belief networks. Ideally, we…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-18 Luis E. Ortiz , Leslie Pack Kaelbling

Molecular dynamics simulations hold great promise for providing insight into the microscopic behavior of complex molecular systems. However, their effectiveness is often constrained by long timescales associated with rare events. Enhanced…

Computational Physics · Physics 2026-03-03 Kai Zhu , Enrico Trizio , Jintu Zhang , Renling Hu , Linlong Jiang , Tingjun Hou , Luigi Bonati

Adaptive sampling algorithms are modern and efficient methods that dynamically adjust the sample size throughout the optimization process. However, they may encounter difficulties in risk-averse settings, particularly due to the challenge…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-02-17 Sandra Pieraccini , Tommaso Vanzan

We provide an overview on how to use the measurable selection techniques to derive the dynamic programming principle for a general stochastic optimal control/stopping problem. By considering its martingale problem formulation on the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-10-03 Nicole El Karoui , Xiaolu Tan

Metadynamics is an enhanced sampling method of great popularity, based on the on-the-fly construction of a bias potential that is function of a selected number of collective variables. We propose here a change in perspective that shifts the…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-03-24 Michele Invernizzi , Michele Parrinello

The normalizing constant plays an important role in Bayesian computation, and there is a large literature on methods for computing or approximating normalizing constants that cannot be evaluated in closed form. When the normalizing constant…

Computation · Statistics 2020-09-02 Yuling Yao , Collin Cademartori , Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman

We explore efficient estimation of statistical quantities, particularly rare event probabilities, for stochastic reaction networks. Consequently, we propose an importance sampling (IS) approach to improve the Monte Carlo (MC) estimator…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-03-12 Chiheb Ben Hammouda , Nadhir Ben Rached , Raúl Tempone , Sophia Wiechert

Importance sampling is a widely used technique to reduce the variance of a Monte Carlo estimator by an appropriate change of measure. In this work, we study importance sam- pling in the framework of diffusion process and consider the change…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-28 Carsten Hartmann , Christof Schütte , Marcus Weber , Wei Zhang

Diffusion and flow-matching have emerged as powerful methodologies for generative modeling, with remarkable success in capturing complex data distributions and enabling flexible guidance at inference time. Many downstream applications,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Zeyang Li , Kaveh Alim , Navid Azizan

In this paper, we propose a sampling-based planning and optimal control method of nonlinear systems under non-differentiable constraints. Motivated by developing scalable planning algorithms, we consider the optimal motion plan to be a…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-12-19 Jie Fu
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