Related papers: Predicting conditional probability distributions o…

While we would like to predict exact values, available incomplete information is rarely sufficient - usually allowing only to predict conditional probability distributions. This article discusses hierarchical correlation reconstruction…

We present a probabilistic cross-correlation approach to estimate time delays in the context of reverberation mapping (RM) of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN). We reformulate the traditional interpolated cross-correlation method as a…

While we are usually focused on forecasting future values of time series, it is often valuable to additionally predict their entire probability distributions, e.g. to evaluate risk, Monte Carlo simulations. On example of time series of…

In situations like tax declarations or analyzes of household budgets we would like to automatically evaluate credibility of exogenous variable (declared income) based on some available (endogenous) variables - we want to build a model and…

While there is a general focus on predictions of values, mathematically more appropriate is prediction of probability distributions: with additional possibilities like prediction of uncertainty, higher moments and quantiles. For the purpose…

Machine learning often needs to model density from a multidimensional data sample, including correlations between coordinates. Additionally, we often have missing data case: that data points can miss values for some of coordinates. This…

Computational models support high-stakes decisions across engineering and science, and practitioners increasingly seek probabilistic predictions to quantify uncertainty in such models. Existing approaches generate predictions either by…

The prediction of urban vehicle flow and speed can greatly facilitate people's travel, and also can provide reasonable advice for the decision-making of relevant government departments. However, due to the spatial, temporal and hierarchy of…

Conditional neural processes (CNPs; Garnelo et al., 2018a) are attractive meta-learning models which produce well-calibrated predictions and are trainable via a simple maximum likelihood procedure. Although CNPs have many advantages, they…

Extended sequence generation often leads to degradation in contextual consistency due to the inability of conventional self-attention mechanisms to effectively retain long-range dependencies. Existing approaches, including memory…

We develop estimation for potentially high-dimensional additive structural equation models. A key component of our approach is to decouple order search among the variables from feature or edge selection in a directed acyclic graph encoding…

Probabilistic principal component analysis (PPCA) is a probabilistic reformulation of principal component analysis (PCA), under the framework of a Gaussian latent variable model. To improve the robustness of PPCA, it has been proposed to…

Modeling the complex relationships between multiple categorical response variables as a function of predictors is a fundamental task in the analysis of categorical data. However, existing methods can be difficult to interpret and may lack…

Quantifying uncertainty in predictions or, more generally, estimating the posterior conditional distribution, is a core challenge in machine learning and statistics. We introduce Convex Nonparanormal Regression (CNR), a conditional…

Quantifying uncertainty is critical for the safe deployment of ranking models in real-world applications. Recent work offers a rigorous solution using conformal prediction in a full ranking scenario, which aims to construct prediction sets…

The normalized excess variance is a popular method used by many authors to estimate the variability of active galactic nuclei (AGNs), especially in the X-ray band. We show that this estimator is affected by the cosmological time dilation,…

We develop a multiscale approach to estimate high-dimensional probability distributions from a dataset of physical fields or configurations observed in experiments or simulations. In this way we can estimate energy functions (or…

We propose a new class of financial volatility models, called the REcurrent Conditional Heteroskedastic (RECH) models, to improve both in-sample analysis and out-ofsample forecasting of the traditional conditional heteroskedastic models. In…

Measuring the redshift of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) requires the use of time-consuming and expensive spectroscopic analysis. However, obtaining redshift measurements of AGNs is crucial as it can enable AGN population studies, provide…

Modern cosmological analyses constrain physical parameters using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or similar sampling techniques. Oftentimes, these techniques are computationally expensive to run and require up to thousands of CPU hours to…