Related papers: Causal Discovery in Hawkes Processes by Minimum De…

The Hawkes process, a self-exciting point process, has a wide range of applications in modeling earthquakes, social networks and stock markets. The established estimation process requires that researchers have access to the exact time…

Granger causality is a commonly used method for uncovering information flow and dependencies in a time series. Here we introduce JGC (Jacobian Granger Causality), a neural network-based approach to Granger causality using the Jacobian as a…

We propose a method of analysis of dynamical networks based on a recent measure of Granger causality between time series, based on kernel methods. The generalization of kernel Granger causality to the multivariate case, here presented,…

Causal discovery amounts to learning a directed acyclic graph (DAG) that encodes a causal model. This model selection problem can be challenging due to its large combinatorial search space, particularly when dealing with non-parametric…

Causal inference can estimate causal effects, but unless data are collected experimentally, statistical analyses must rely on pre-specified causal models. Causal discovery algorithms are empirical methods for constructing such causal models…

Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be useful for decision-making or discovering causal relationships. However, traditional methods often fail in modern applications, which exhibit a larger number of observed variables than data…

Granger causality can uncover the cause and effect relationships in financial networks. However, such networks can be convoluted and difficult to interpret, but the Helmholtz-Hodge-Kodaira decomposition can split them into a rotational and…

Modelling and forecasting the occurrence of extreme events is especially difficult when the event process is nonstationary, with changes in both the rate at which extremes occur and the magnitude of the extremes when they occur. We approach…

Multi-electrode neurophysiological recordings produce massive quantities of data. Multivariate time series analysis provides the basic framework for analyzing the patterns of neural interactions in these data. It has long been recognized…

Discovering causal structures with latent variables from observational data is a fundamental challenge in causal discovery. Existing methods often rely on constraint-based, iterative discrete searches, limiting their scalability to large…

We merge computational mechanics' definition of causal states (predictively-equivalent histories) with reproducing-kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) representation inference. The result is a widely-applicable method that infers causal structure…

We are not only observers but also actors of reality. Our capability to intervene and alter the course of some events in the space and time surrounding us is an essential component of how we build our model of the world. In this doctoral…

Multivariate Hawkes processes are past-dependant point processes originally introduced to model excitation effects, later extended to a nonlinear framework to account for the opposite effect, known as inhibition. Motivated by applications…

Computational analysis of time-course data with an underlying causal structure is needed in a variety of domains, including neural spike trains, stock price movements, and gene expression levels. However, it can be challenging to determine…

Causal discovery is a fundamental problem with applications spanning various areas in science and engineering. It is well understood that solely using observational data, one can only orient the causal graph up to its Markov equivalence…

This paper is motivated by studies in neuroscience experiments to understand interactions between nodes in a brain network using different types of data modalities that capture different distinct facets of brain activity. To assess…

The algorithmic Markov condition states that the most likely causal direction between two random variables X and Y can be identified as that direction with the lowest Kolmogorov complexity. Due to the halting problem, however, this notion…

We propose a novel class of network models for temporal dyadic interaction data. Our goal is to capture a number of important features often observed in social interactions: sparsity, degree heterogeneity, community structure and…

Causal discovery, the task of automatically constructing a causal model from data, is of major significance across the sciences. Evaluating the performance of causal discovery algorithms should ideally involve comparing the inferred models…

Identifying causal relations among simultaneously acquired signals is an important problem in multivariate time series analysis. For linear stochastic systems Granger proposed a simple procedure called the Granger causality to detect such…