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We study large deviations for the time average of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process raised to an arbitrary power. We prove that beyond a critical value, large deviations are subexponential in time, with a non-convex rate function whose main…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-22 Grégoire Ferré

We establish Cram\'er-type moderate deviation theorems for sums of locally dependent random variables and combinatorial central limit theorems. Under some mild exponential moment conditions, optimal error bounds and convergence ranges are…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-12-22 Song-Hao Liu , Zhuo-Song Zhang

Let $(\mu_{\alpha})$ be a net of Radon sub-probability measures on the real line, and $(t_{\alpha})$ be a net in $]0,+\infty[$ converging to 0. Assuming that the generalized log-moment generating function $L(\lambda)$ exists for all…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-12-04 Henri Comman

Forced advection of passive tracer, $\theta $, in nonlinear relaxational medium by large scale (Batchelor problem) incompressible velocity field at scales less than the correlation length of the flow and larger than the diffusion scale is…

chao-dyn · Physics 2009-10-31 Michael Chertkov

Fitting a graphical model to a collection of random variables given sample observations is a challenging task if the observed variables are influenced by latent variables, which can induce significant confounding statistical dependencies…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-20 Armeen Taeb , Parikshit Shah , Venkat Chandrasekaran

We present two examples of a large deviations principle where the rate function is not strictly convex. This is motivated by a model used in mathematical finance (the Heston model), and adds a new item to the zoology of non strictly convex…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-19 Stefano De Marco , Antoine Jacquier , Patrick Roome

We consider nonparametric Bayesian inference in a reflected diffusion model $dX_t = b (X_t)dt + \sigma(X_t) dW_t,$ with discretely sampled observations $X_0, X_\Delta, \dots, X_{n\Delta}$. We analyse the nonlinear inverse problem…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-26 Richard Nickl , Jakob Söhl

The fluctuation theorem for entropy production is a remarkable symmetry of the distribution of produced entropy that holds universally in non-equilibrium steady states with Markovian dynamics. However, in systems with slow degrees of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-02-21 Matthias Uhl , Patrick Pietzonka , Udo Seifert

We study the evolution leading to (or regressing from) a large fluctuation in a Statistical Mechanical system. We introduce and study analytically a simple model of many identically and independently distributed microscopic variables $n_m$…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-03-28 Federico Corberi

In [11] it has been proved some variational formula on the Legendre-Fenchel transform of the cumulant generating function (the Cram\'er function) of Rademacher series with coefficients in the space $\ell^1$. In this paper we show a…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-02-27 Krzysztof Zajkowski

It is becoming more and more clear that complex networks present remarkable large fluctuations. These fluctuations may manifest differently according to the given model. In this paper we re-consider hidden variable models which turn out to…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2014-02-19 Massimo Ostilli

In various disordered systems or non-equilibrium dynamical models, the large deviations of some observables have been found to display different scalings for rare values bigger or smaller than the typical value. In the present paper, we…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-05-12 Cecile Monthus

The (general) hypoexponential distribution is the distribution of a sum of independent exponential random variables. We consider the particular case when the involved exponential variables have distinct rate parameters. We prove that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-16 George P. Yanev

We consider the Bayesian analysis of models in which the unknown distribution of the outcomes is specified up to a set of conditional moment restrictions. The nonparametric exponentially tilted empirical likelihood function is constructed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-27 Siddhartha Chib , Minchul Shin , Anna Simoni

This paper develops a threshold regression model where an unknown relationship between two variables nonparametrically determines the threshold. We allow the observations to be cross-sectionally dependent so that the model can be applied to…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-01-29 Yoonseok Lee , Yulong Wang

We discuss the spectral asymptotics of some open subsets of the real line with random fractal boundary and of a random fractal, the continuum random tree. In the case of open subsets with random fractal boundary we establish the existence…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-12-08 Philippe H. A. Charmoy , David A. Croydon , Ben M. Hambly

Models based on assumptions of multivariate regular variation and hidden regular variation provide ways to describe a broad range of extremal dependence structures when marginal distributions are heavy tailed. Multivariate regular variation…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Janet E. Heffernan , Sidney I. Resnick

Latent or unobserved phenomena pose a significant difficulty in data analysis as they induce complicated and confounding dependencies among a collection of observed variables. Factor analysis is a prominent multivariate statistical modeling…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-22 Armeen Taeb , Venkat Chandrasekaran

This paper investigates the asymptotic behavior of the extremes of a sequence of generalized Oppenheim random variables. Particularly, we establish conditions under which some normalized extremes of sequences arising from Oppenheim…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-21 Milto Hadjikyriakou , Rita Giuliano

We study the large deviations of current-type observables defined for Markov diffusion processes evolving in smooth bounded regions of $\mathbb{R}^d$ with reflections at the boundaries. We derive for these the correct boundary conditions…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-06-22 Emil Mallmin , Johan du Buisson , Hugo Touchette
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