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Spatially and temporally varying coefficient (STVC) models are currently attracting attention as a flexible tool to explore the spatio-temporal patterns in regression coefficients. However, these models often struggle with balancing…

Describing the dimension reduction (DR) techniques by means of probabilistic models has recently been given special attention. Probabilistic models, in addition to a better interpretability of the DR methods, provide a framework for further…

Reward models are central to aligning language models with human preferences via reinforcement learning (RL). As RL is increasingly applied to settings such as verifiable rewards and multi-objective alignment, RMs are expected to encode…

The marginal likelihood is a well established model selection criterion in Bayesian statistics. It also allows to efficiently calculate the marginal posterior model probabilities that can be used for Bayesian model averaging of quantities…

Modeling correlation (and covariance) matrices can be challenging due to the positive-definiteness constraint and potential high-dimensionality. Our approach is to decompose the covariance matrix into the correlation and variance matrices…

Due to the ease of modern data collection, applied statisticians often have access to a large set of covariates that they wish to relate to some observed outcome. Generalized linear models (GLMs) offer a particularly interpretable framework…

In this paper, we propose a novel variable selection approach in the framework of sparse high-dimensional GLARMA models. It consists in combining the estimation of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) coefficients of these models with…

Recent Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models show strong generalization capabilities, yet they lack introspective mechanisms for anticipating failures and requesting help from a human supervisor. We present \textbf{INSIGHT}, a learning…

The development of state-of-the-art generative large language models (LLMs) disproportionately relies on English-centric tokenizers, vocabulary and pre-training data. Despite the fact that some LLMs have multilingual capabilities, recent…

In this paper we propose univariate volatility models for irregularly spaced financial time series by modifying the regularly spaced stochastic volatility models. We also extend this approach to propose multivariate stochastic volatility…

The univariate integer-valued time series has been extensively studied, but literature on multivariate integer-valued time series models is quite limited and the complex correlation structure among the multivariate integer-valued time…

We introduce a class of Bayesian matrix dynamic factor models that accommodates time-varying volatility, outliers, and cross-sectional correlation in the idiosyncratic components. For model comparison, we employ an importance-sampling…

This paper introduces a flexible time-varying network vector autoregressive model framework for large-scale time series. A latent group structure is imposed on the heterogeneous and node-specific time-varying momentum and network spillover…

This paper proposes a novel diffusion-index model for forecasting when predictors are high-dimensional matrix-valued time series. We apply an $\alpha$-PCA method to extract low-dimensional matrix factors and build a bilinear regression…

We introduce a Bayesian Gaussian process latent variable model that explicitly captures spatial correlations in data using a parameterized spatial kernel and leveraging structure-exploiting algebra on the model covariance matrices for…

In this paper, we propose a novel and efficient two-stage variable selection approach for sparse GLARMA models, which are pervasive for modeling discrete-valued time series. Our approach consists in iteratively combining the estimation of…

We develop a non-parametric multivariate time series model that remains agnostic on the precise relationship between a (possibly) large set of macroeconomic time series and their lagged values. The main building block of our model is a…

Multivariate time series are routinely encountered in real-world applications, and in many cases, these time series are strongly correlated. In this paper, we present a deep learning structural time series model which can (i) handle…

This paper considers a time-varying vector error-correction model that allows for different time series behaviours (e.g., unit-root and locally stationary processes) to interact with each other to co-exist. From practical perspectives, this…

Recently, large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated powerful capabilities in performing various tasks and thus are applied by recent studies to time series forecasting (TSF) tasks, which predict future values with the given historical…