Related papers: A Two-Ball Ellsberg Paradox: An Experiment
Ingroup favoritism, the tendency to favor ingroup over outgroup, is often explained as a product of intergroup conflict, or correlations between group tags and behavior. Such accounts assume that group membership is meaningful, whereas…
Learning the preferences of a human improves the quality of the interaction with the human. The number of queries available to learn preferences maybe limited especially when interacting with a human, and so active learning is a must. One…
We explore the deliberate infusion of ambiguity into the design of contracts. We show that when the agent is ambiguity-averse and hence chooses an action that maximizes their minimum utility, the principal can strictly gain from using an…
We survey the design of elections that are resilient to attempted interference by third parties. For example, suppose votes have been cast in an election between two candidates, and then each vote is randomly changed with a small…
Applied researchers often claim that the risk difference is more heterogeneous than the relative risk and the odds ratio. Some also argue that there are theoretical grounds for why this claim is true. In this note, we point out that these…
Consider a persuasion game where both the sender and receiver are ambiguity averse with maxmin expected utility (MEU) preferences and the sender can choose an ambiguous information structure. This paper analyzes the game in an ex-ante…
Explanations are inherently contrastive: E happened rather than E' because of C rather than C'. However, these contrasts, or "foils", are rarely mentioned explicitly but have to be inferred in context. Here, we investigate how people select…
We study an outcome of a vote in a population of voters exposed to an externally applied bias in favour of one of two potential candidates. The population consists of ordinary individuals, that are in majority and tend to align their…
Confirmation bias, the tendency to seek evidence that supports rather than challenges one's belief, hinders one's reasoning ability. We examine whether large language models (LLMs) exhibit confirmation bias by adapting the rule-discovery…
Machine learning systems can help humans to make decisions by providing decision suggestions (i.e., a label for a datapoint). However, individual datapoints do not always provide enough clear evidence to make confident suggestions. Although…
An agent choosing between various actions tends to take the one with the lowest cost. But this choice is arguably too rigid (not adaptive) to be useful in complex situations, e.g., where exploration-exploitation trade-off is relevant in…
This paper proposes a decision theory for a symbolic generalization of probability theory (SP). Darwiche and Ginsberg [2,3] proposed SP to relax the requirement of using numbers for uncertainty while preserving desirable patterns of…
In nature, active inference agents must learn how observations of the world represent the state of the agent. In engineering, the physics behind sensors is often known reasonably accurately and measurement functions can be incorporated into…
Recently, the educational initiative TED-Ed has published a popular brain teaser coined the 'frog riddle', which illustrates non-intuitive implications of conditional probabilities. In its intended form, the frog riddle is a reformulation…
What would you do if you were invited to play a game where you were given \$25 and allowed to place bets for 30 minutes on a coin that you were told was biased to come up heads 60% of the time? This is exactly what we did, gathering 61…
I think we can agree that dealing with uncertainty is not easy. Probability is the main tool for dealing with uncertainty, and we know there are many probability-related puzzles and paradoxes. Here I describe a rather idiosyncratic…
In this article, I will present a paradox whose purpose is to draw your attention to an important topic in finance, concerning the non-independence of the financial returns (non-ergodic hypothesis). In this paradox, we have two people…
Decisions taken in our everyday lives are based on a wide variety of information so it is generally very difficult to assess what are the strategies that guide us. Stock market therefore provides a rich environment to study how people take…
Quantitative research relies heavily on coding, and coding errors are relatively common even in published research. In this paper, we examine whether individuals are more or less likely to check their code depending on the results they…
Human concept learning is typically active: learners choose which instances to query or test in order to reduce uncertainty about an underlying rule or category. Active concept learning must balance informativeness of queries against the…