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In the literature surrounding Bayesian penalized regression, the two primary choices of prior distribution on the regression coefficients are zero-mean Gaussian and Laplace. While both have been compared numerically and theoretically, there…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-01-26 Luke Bornn , Raphael Gottardo , Arnaud Doucet

If we have an unbiased estimate of some parameter of interest, then its absolute value is positively biased for the absolute value of the parameter. This bias is large when the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is small, and it becomes even…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-01 Erik van Zwet , Andrew Gelman

This paper tackles the problem of decomposing binary data using matrix factorization. We consider the family of mean-parametrized Bernoulli models, a class of generative models that are well suited for modeling binary data and enables…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-27 Paul Magron , Cédric Févotte

Bivariate count data arise in several different disciplines (epidemiology, marketing, sports statistics, etc., to name but a few) and the bivariate Poisson distribution which is a generalization of the Poisson distribution plays an…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-12 Barry C. Arnold , Indranil Ghosh

The probability of default (PD) estimation is an important process for financial institutions. The difficulty of the estimation depends on the correlations between borrowers. In this paper, we introduce a hierarchical Bayesian estimation…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-05-19 Masato Hisakado , Shintaro Mori

In bayesian wavelet shrinkage, the already proposed priors to wavelet coefficients are assumed to be symmetric around zero. Although this assumption is reasonable in many applications, it is not general. The present paper proposes the use…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-12 Alex Rodrigo dos Santos Sousa

A staple of Bayesian model comparison and hypothesis testing, Bayes factors are often used to quantify the relative predictive performance of two rival hypotheses. The computation of Bayes factors can be challenging, however, and this has…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-19 František Bartoš , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

We consider a class of non-conjugate priors as a mixing family of distributions for a parameter (e.g., Poisson or gamma rate, inverse scale or precision of an inverse-gamma, inverse variance of a normal distribution) of an exponential…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-25 Dexter Cahoy , Joseph Sedransk

The Bayesian treatment of neural networks dictates that a prior distribution is specified over their weight and bias parameters. This poses a challenge because modern neural networks are characterized by a large number of parameters, and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-26 Ba-Hien Tran , Simone Rossi , Dimitrios Milios , Maurizio Filippone

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) combine the expressive power of deep learning with the advantages of Bayesian formalism. In recent years, the analysis of wide, deep BNNs has provided theoretical insight into their priors and posteriors.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-24 Beau Coker , Wessel P. Bruinsma , David R. Burt , Weiwei Pan , Finale Doshi-Velez

We propose a novel adaptive importance sampling scheme for Bayesian inversion problems where the inference of the variables of interest and the power of the data noise is split. More specifically, we consider a Bayesian analysis for the…

Computation · Statistics 2021-07-27 L. Martino , F. Llorente , E. Curbelo , J. Lopez-Santiago , J. Miguez

The use of improper priors in the context of Bayesian hierarchical linear mixed models has been studied under the assumption of normality of the random effects. We study the propriety of the posterior under more flexible distributional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-09-24 F. J. Rubio

This paper argues that the half-Cauchy distribution should replace the inverse-Gamma distribution as a default prior for a top-level scale parameter in Bayesian hierarchical models, at least for cases where a proper prior is necessary. Our…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-09-27 Nicholas G. Polson , James G. Scott

Over the past decade and a half, adoption of Bayesian inference in pulsar timing analysis has led to increasingly sophisticated models. The recent announcement of evidence for a stochastic background of gravitational waves by various pulsar…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-11-28 Rutger van Haasteren

Specifying a Bayesian prior is notoriously difficult for complex models such as neural networks. Reasoning about parameters is made challenging by the high-dimensionality and over-parameterization of the space. Priors that seem benign and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-22 Eric Nalisnick , Jonathan Gordon , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

Many popular Bayesian nonparametric priors can be characterized in terms of exchangeable species sampling sequences. However, in some applications, exchangeability may not be appropriate. We introduce a {novel and probabilistically coherent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-17 Edoardo M. Airoldi , Thiago Costa , Federico Bassetti , Fabrizio Leisen , Michele Guindani

Observational astrophysics consists of making inferences about the Universe by comparing data and models. The credible intervals placed on model parameters are often as important as the maximum a posteriori probability values, as the…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2021-12-15 Will J. Percival , Oliver Friedrich , Elena Sellentin , Alan Heavens

Power and sample size analysis comprises a critical component of clinical trial study design. There is an extensive collection of methods addressing this problem from diverse perspectives. The Bayesian paradigm, in particular, has attracted…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-08 Jane Pan , Sudipto Banerjee

Predicting the winner of an election is of importance to multiple stakeholders. To formulate the problem, we consider an independent sequence of categorical data with a finite number of possible outcomes in each. The data is assumed to be…

Applications · Statistics 2024-10-17 Soudeep Deb , Rishideep Roy , Shubhabrata Das

We theoretically justify the recent empirical finding of [Teh et al., 2025] that a transformer pretrained on synthetically generated data achieves strong performance on empirical Bayes (EB) problems. We take an indirect approach to this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-18 Nick Cannella , Anzo Teh , Yanjun Han , Yury Polyanskiy