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Related papers: Bayesian Predictive Decision Synthesis

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When sample data are governed by an unknown sequence of independent but possibly non-identical distributions, the data-generating process (DGP) in general cannot be perfectly identified from the data. For making decisions facing such…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2022-05-11 Xiaoyu Cheng

The Bayesian approach to data analysis provides a powerful way to handle uncertainty in all observations, model parameters, and model structure using probability theory. Probabilistic programming languages make it easier to specify and fit…

This paper introduces Bayesian frameworks for tackling various aspects of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems, leveraging a probabilistic interpretation of MCDM methods and challenges. By harnessing the flexibility of Bayesian…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-08 Majid Mohammadi

Bayesian optimization is a coherent, ubiquitous approach to decision-making under uncertainty, with applications including multi-arm bandits, active learning, and black-box optimization. Bayesian optimization selects decisions (i.e.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-13 Samuel Stanton , Wesley Maddox , Andrew Gordon Wilson

Bayesian statistics is concerned with conducting posterior inference for the unknown quantities in a given statistical model. Conventional Bayesian inference requires the specification of a probabilistic model for the observed data, and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-11 David T. Frazier , Christopher Drovandi , David J. Nott

There is significant growth and interest in the use of synthetic data as an enabler for machine learning in environments where the release of real data is restricted due to privacy or availability constraints. Despite a large number of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Harrison Wilde , Jack Jewson , Sebastian Vollmer , Chris Holmes

The estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects in the potential outcome setting is biased when there exists model misspecification or unobserved confounding. As these biases are unobservable, what model to use when remains a critical…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-09 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Kosaku Takanashi , Kenichiro McAlinn , Edoardo M. Airoldi

Safe and reliable disclosure of information from confidential data is a challenging statistical problem. A common approach considers the generation of synthetic data, to be disclosed instead of the original data. Efficient approaches ought…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-04 Larissa N. A. Martins , Flávio B. Gonçalves , Thais P. Galletti

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently regained a significant amount of attention in the deep learning community due to the development of scalable approximate Bayesian inference techniques. There are several advantages of using…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-28 Aliaksandr Hubin , Geir Storvik

The concepts of Bayesian prediction, model comparison, and model selection have developed significantly over the last decade. As a result, the Bayesian community has witnessed a rapid growth in theoretical and applied contributions to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-08-07 Yann McLatchie , Sölvi Rögnvaldsson , Frank Weber , Aki Vehtari

In recent times, neural networks have become a powerful tool for the analysis of complex and abstract data models. However, their introduction intrinsically increases our uncertainty about which features of the analysis are model-related…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-09 Tom Charnock , Laurence Perreault-Levasseur , François Lanusse

Computer experiments are becoming increasingly important in scientific investigations. In the presence of uncertainty, analysts employ probabilistic sensitivity methods to identify the key-drivers of change in the quantities of interest.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-02 Isadora Antoniano-Villalobos , Emanuele Borgonovo , Xuefei Lu

Bounded confidence opinion dynamics model the propagation of information in social networks. However in the existing literature, opinions are only viewed as abstract quantities without semantics rather than as part of a decision-making…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2015-06-17 Kush R. Varshney

In this review, we assess the use of Bayesian methods in model predictive control (MPC), focusing on neural-network-based modeling, control design, and uncertainty quantification. We systematically analyze individual studies and how they…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-08 Asli Karacelik

Modern regression applications can involve hundreds or thousands of variables which motivates the use of variable selection methods. Bayesian variable selection defines a posterior distribution on the possible subsets of the variables…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-16 J. E. Griffin

Past research on pedestrian trajectory forecasting mainly focused on deterministic predictions which provide only point estimates of future states. These future estimates can help an autonomous vehicle plan its trajectory and avoid…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-16 Anshul Nayak , Azim Eskandarian , Zachary Doerzaph

Modern statistical software and machine learning libraries are enabling semi-automated statistical inference. Within this context, it appears easier and easier to try and fit many models to the data at hand, reversing thereby the Fisherian…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-28 Pierre-Alexandre Mattei

Bayesian averaging over classification models allows the uncertainty of classification outcomes to be evaluated, which is of crucial importance for making reliable decisions in applications such as financial in which risks have to be…

Background: Bayesian Networks (BNs) are probabilistic graphical models that leverage Bayes' theorem to portray dependencies and cause-and-effect relationships between variables. These networks have gained prominence in the field of health…

Prediction is critical for decision-making under uncertainty and lends validity to statistical inference. With targeted prediction, the goal is to optimize predictions for specific decision tasks of interest, which we represent via…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-18 Daniel R. Kowal