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Related papers: Physics captured by data-based methods in El Ni\~n…

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We show that the climate phenomena of El Nino and La Nina arise naturally as states of macro-variables when our recent causal feature learning framework (Chalupka 2015, Chalupka 2016) is applied to micro-level measures of zonal wind (ZW)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-05-31 Krzysztof Chalupka , Tobias Bischoff , Pietro Perona , Frederick Eberhardt

Forecasting time series with extreme events has been a challenging and prevalent research topic, especially when the time series data are affected by complicated uncertain factors, such as is the case in hydrologic prediction. Diverse…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-15 Yanhong Li , Jack Xu , David C. Anastasiu

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have gained widespread usage across various fields such as weather forecasting, computer vision, autonomous driving, and medical image analysis due to its exceptional ability to extract spatial…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-05-21 Alifu Xiafukaiti , Devanshu Garg , Aruto Hosaka , Koichi Yanagisawa , Yuichiro Minato , Tsuyoshi Yoshida

Climate models project an uncertainty range of possible warming scenarios from 1.5 to 5 degree Celsius global temperature increase until 2100, according to the CMIP6 model ensemble. Climate risk management and infrastructure adaptation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-10 Björn Lütjens , Catherine H. Crawford , Mark Veillette , Dava Newman

In a changing climate, artificial intelligence (AI) weather models have the potential to provide cheaper, faster, and more accurate forecasts of high-impact weather events. To realize this potential and gauge trustworthiness, there is a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-24 Rebecca Baiman , Ankur Mahesh , Elizabeth A. Barnes

In this paper we discuss and address the challenges of predicting extreme atmospheric events like intense rainfall, hail, and strong winds. These events can cause significant damage and have become more frequent due to climate change.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-10-06 Mikhail Mozikov , Ilya Makarov , Alexandr Bulkin , Daria Taniushkina , Roland Grinis , Yury Maximov

The El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Recently we have developed a network approach, which allows…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-02-19 Josef Ludescher , Armin Bunde , Shlomo Havlin , Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

Very strong El Ni\~no events occur sporadically every 10-20 years. The origin of this bursting behavior still remains elusive. Using a simplified 3-dimensional dynamical model of the tropical Pacific climate system, which captures the El…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2016-05-04 Andrew Roberts , Esther Widiasih , Axel Timmermann , Christopher K. R. T. Jones , John Guckenheimer

Complex numerical weather prediction models incorporate a variety of physical processes, each described by multiple alternative physical schemes with specific parameters. The selection of the physical schemes and the choice of the…

Numerical Analysis · Computer Science 2018-02-23 Azam Moosavi , Vishwas Rao , Adrian Sandu

Seasonal forecasting is a crucial task when it comes to detecting the extreme heat and colds that occur due to climate change. Confidence in the predictions should be reliable since a small increase in the temperatures in a year has a big…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-05 Busra Asan , Abdullah Akgül , Alper Unal , Melih Kandemir , Gozde Unal

An information-theoretic framework is developed to assess the predictability of ENSO complexity, which is a central problem in contemporary meteorology with large societal impacts. The information theory advances a unique way to quantify…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-04-05 Xianghui Fang , Nan Chen

We construct directed and weighted climate networks based on near surface air temperature to investigate the global impacts of El Nino and La Nina. We find that regions which are characterized by higher positive or negative network in…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-09-05 Jingfang Fan , Jun Meng , Yosef Ashkenazy , Shlomo Havlin

Sea ice motions play an important role in the polar climate system by transporting pollutants, heat, water and salt as well as changing the ice cover. Numerous physics-based models have been constructed to represent the sea ice dynamical…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-08-26 Jun Zhai , Cecilia M. Bitz

The 2014-2015 "Monster"/"Super" El Ni\~no failed to be predicted one year earlier due to the growing importance of a new type of El Ni\~no, El Ni\~no Modoki, which reportedly has much lower forecast skill with the classical models. In this…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-04-13 X. San Liang , Fen Xu , Yineng Rong

To advance automated detection of extreme weather events, which are increasing in frequency and intensity with climate change, we explore modifications to a novel light-weight Context Guided convolutional neural network architecture trained…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-04-04 Romain Lacombe , Hannah Grossman , Lucas Hendren , David Lüdeke

Satellite and ground-based observations are used to explore the composite oceanic - atmospheric link known as the El Ni\~no/La Ni\~na Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which is closely associated with extreme weather events (e.g. heat…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-08-22 Costas A. Varotsos , Arthur P. Cracknell

Key components of the Earth system can undergo abrupt and potentially irreversible transitions when the magnitude or rate of external forcing exceeds critical thresholds. In this study, we use the example of the Atlantic Meridional…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Wenjie Zhang , Yu Huang , Sebastian Bathiany , Yechul Shin , Maya Ben-Yami , Suiping Zhou , Niklas Boers

Deep learning has been utilized for the statistical downscaling of climate data. Specifically, a two-dimensional (2D) convolutional neural network (CNN) has been successfully applied to precipitation estimation. This study implements a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-14 Takeyoshi Nagasato , Kei Ishida , Ali Ercan , Tongbi Tu , Masato Kiyama , Motoki Amagasaki , Kazuki Yokoo

Complex networks have been used intensively to investigate the flow and dynamics of many natural systems including the climate system. Here, we develop a percolation based measure, the order parameter, to study and quantify climate…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-02-24 Jun Meng , Jingfang Fan , Yosef Ashkenazy , Shlomo Havlin

The variability of renewable energy generation and the unpredictability of electricity demand create a need for real-time economic dispatch (ED) of assets in microgrids. However, solving numerical optimization problems in real-time can be…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-05-03 Xiaoyu Ge , Javad Khazaei