English
Related papers

Related papers: False Consensus, Information Theory, and Predictio…

200 papers

An analyst observes the frequency with which an agent takes actions, but not the frequency with which she takes actions conditional on a payoff relevant state. In this setting, we ask when the analyst can rationalize the agent's choices as…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-07-27 Laura Doval , Ran Eilat

We explore a model of non-Bayesian information aggregation in networks. Agents non-cooperatively choose among Friedkin-Johnsen type aggregation rules to maximize payoffs. The DeGroot rule is chosen in equilibrium if and only if there is…

General Economics · Economics 2023-11-15 Abhijit Banerjee , Olivier Compte

We give efficient "collaboration protocols" through which two parties, who observe different features about the same instances, can interact to arrive at predictions that are more accurate than either could have obtained on their own. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-09 Natalie Collina , Ira Globus-Harris , Surbhi Goel , Varun Gupta , Aaron Roth , Mirah Shi

We propose an agent-based model of collective opinion formation to study the wisdom of crowds under social influence. The opinion of an agent is a continuous positive value, denoting its subjective answer to a factual question. The wisdom…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-08-25 Pavlin Mavrodiev , Frank Schweitzer

Bayesian Persuasion is proposed as a tool for social media platforms to combat the spread of misinformation. Since platforms can use machine learning to predict the popularity and misinformation features of to-be-shared posts, and users are…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-02-15 Safwan Hossain , Andjela Mladenovic , Yiling Chen , Gauthier Gidel

Since the information available is fundamental for our perceptions and opinions, we are interested in understanding the conditions allowing for a good information to be disseminated. This paper explores opinion dynamics by means of…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2015-03-17 Walter Quattrociocchi , Rosaria Conte , Elena Lodi

The illusion of consensus occurs when people believe there is consensus across multiple sources, but the sources are the same and thus there is no "true" consensus. We explore this phenomenon in the context of an AI-based intelligent agent…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2023-04-25 Takane Ueno , Yeongdae Kim , Hiroki Oura , Katie Seaborn

Peer-prediction is a mechanism which elicits privately-held, non-variable information from self-interested agents---formally, truth-telling is a strict Bayes Nash equilibrium of the mechanism. The original Peer-prediction mechanism suffers…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2016-03-28 Yuqing Kong , Grant Schoenebeck

We present a distributed average consensus protocol that preserves the privacy of agents' inputs. Unlike the differential privacy mechanisms, the presented protocol does not affect the accuracy of the output. It is shown that the protocol…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2020-04-14 Nirupam Gupta , Jonathan Katz , Nikhil Chopra

I develop a rather simple agent-based model to capture a co-evolution of opinion formation, political decision making and economic outcomes. I use this model to study how societies form opinions if their members have opposing interests.…

General Economics · Economics 2021-11-19 Patrick Mellacher

Optimizing recommender systems based on user interaction data is mainly seen as a problem of dealing with selection bias, where most existing work assumes that interactions from different users are independent. However, it has been shown…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2022-07-04 Norman Knyazev , Harrie Oosterhuis

In a prediction market, individuals can sequentially place bets on the outcome of a future event. This leaves a trail of personal probabilities for the event, each being conditional on the current individual's private background knowledge…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-28 A. Philip Dawid , Julia Mortera

In online markets, agents often learn from other's actions in addition to their private information. Such observational learning can lead to herding or information cascades in which agents eventually ignore their private information and…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2025-05-16 Pawan Poojary , Randall Berry

Prominent opinion formation models such as the one by Friedkin and Johnsen (FJ) concentrate on the effects of peer pressure on public opinions. In practice, opinion formation is also based on information about the state of the world and…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2025-09-10 Martin Hoefer , Tim Koglin , Tolga Tel

Peer prediction refers to a collection of mechanisms for eliciting information from human agents when direct verification of the obtained information is unavailable. They are designed to have a game-theoretic equilibrium where everyone…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2022-10-28 Shi Feng , Fang-Yi Yu , Yiling Chen

It has been observed people tend to have opinions that are far more internally consistent than it would be reasonable to expect. Here, we study how that observation might emerge from changing how agents trust the opinions of their peers in…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-07-15 Marcelo V. Maciel , André C. R. Martins

The present paper shows that it can be advantageous for traders to publish their information on the true value of an asset even if they (i) cannot build a position in the asset prior to the publication of their information and (ii) cannot…

General Economics · Economics 2024-11-05 Wolfgang Kuhle

This paper reports experimental data describing the dynamics of three key information-sharing outcomes: quantity of information shared, falsification and accuracy. The experimental design follows a formal model predicting that cooperative…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2013-05-23 Nathan Berg , Chunyu Chen , Murat Kantarcioglu

With the advent of online networks, societies are substantially more connected with individual members able to easily modify and maintain their own social links. Here, we show that active network maintenance exposes agents to confirmation…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-11-23 V. Ngampruetikorn , Greg J Stephens

A core tenet underpinning the conception of contemporary information networks, such as social media platforms, is that users should not be constrained in the amount of information they can freely and willingly exchange with one another…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Jonas Stein , Shannon Cruz , Davide Grossi , Martina Testori