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This paper develops a robust and efficient method for policy learning from observational data in the presence of unobserved confounding, complementing existing instrumental variable (IV) based approaches. We employ the marginal sensitivity…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-29 Zequn Jin , Gaoqian Xu , Xi Zheng , Yahong Zhou

Marginal structural models are a popular tool for investigating the effects of time-varying treatments, but they require an assumption of no unobserved confounders between the treatment and outcome. With observational data, this assumption…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-10 Matthew Blackwell , Soichiro Yamauchi

Adjusting for latent covariates is crucial for estimating causal effects from observational textual data. Most existing methods only account for confounding covariates that affect both treatment and outcome, potentially leading to biased…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-11-27 Yuxiang Zhou , Yulan He

Exposure measurement error is a ubiquitous but often overlooked challenge in causal inference with observational data. Existing methods accounting for exposure measurement error largely rely on restrictive parametric assumptions, while…

We consider studies where multiple measures on an outcome variable are collected over time, but some subjects drop out before the end of follow up. Analyses of such data often proceed under either a 'last observation carried forward' or…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-26 Oliver Dukes , David Richardson , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

We introduce several methods for assessing sensitivity to unmeasured confounding in marginal structural models; importantly we allow treatments to be discrete or continuous, static or time-varying. We consider three sensitivity models: a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-12 Matteo Bonvini , Edward Kennedy , Valerie Ventura , Larry Wasserman

In the causal adjustment setting, variable selection techniques based on either the outcome or treatment allocation model can result in the omission of confounders or the inclusion of spurious variables in the propensity score. We propose a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-06-06 Ashkan Ertefaie , Masoud Asgharian , David A. Stephens

Sensitivity analysis is popular in dealing with missing data problems particularly for non-ignorable missingness. It analyses how sensitively the conclusions may depend on assumptions about missing data e.g. missing data mechanism (MDM). We…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-01-26 Peng Yin , Jian Qing Shi

Adaptive experiment designs can dramatically improve statistical efficiency in randomized trials, but they also complicate statistical inference. For example, it is now well known that the sample mean is biased in adaptive trials.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-16 Vitor Hadad , David A. Hirshberg , Ruohan Zhan , Stefan Wager , Susan Athey

This paper studies identification of the effect of a mis-classified, binary, endogenous regressor when a discrete-valued instrumental variable is available. We begin by showing that the only existing point identification result for this…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-11-17 Francis J. DiTraglia , Camilo Garcia-Jimeno

As statistical classifiers become integrated into real-world applications, it is important to consider not only their accuracy but also their robustness to changes in the data distribution. In this paper, we consider the case where there is…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-01-12 Virgile Landeiro , Aron Culotta

Confounding is a significant obstacle to unbiased estimation of causal effects from observational data. For settings with high-dimensional covariates -- such as text data, genomics, or the behavioral social sciences -- researchers have…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-02-01 Katherine A. Keith , Sergey Feldman , David Jurgens , Jonathan Bragg , Rohit Bhattacharya

We develop new methods to integrate experimental and observational data in causal inference. While randomized controlled trials offer strong internal validity, they are often costly and therefore limited in sample size. Observational data,…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-04 Xuelin Yang , Licong Lin , Susan Athey , Michael I. Jordan , Guido W. Imbens

The estimation of the causal effect of an endogenous treatment based on an instrumental variable (IV) is often complicated by attrition, sample selection, or non-response in the outcome of interest. To tackle the latter problem, the latent…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-06-04 Martin Huber

Instruments can be used to identify causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounding, under the famous relevance and exogeneity (unconfoundedness and exclusion) assumptions. As exogeneity is difficult to justify and to some degree…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-08-29 Christian Tien

Nonignorable missing outcomes are common in real world datasets and often require strong parametric assumptions to achieve identification. These assumptions can be implausible or untestable, and so we may forgo them in favour of partially…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-19 Daniel Daly-Grafstein , Paul Gustafson

There is growing interest in a hybrid control design in which a randomized controlled trial is augmented with an external control arm from a previous trial or real world data. Existing methods for analyzing hybrid control studies include…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-30 Zhiwei Zhang , Jialuo Liu , Wei Liu

This paper provides a set of methods for quantifying the robustness of treatment effects estimated using the unconfoundedness assumption (also known as selection on observables or conditional independence). Specifically, we estimate and do…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-01-01 Matthew A. Masten , Alexandre Poirier , Linqi Zhang

Inferring causal effects of a treatment, intervention or policy from observational data is central to many applications. However, state-of-the-art methods for causal inference seldom consider the possibility that covariates have missing…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-26 Imke Mayer , Julie Josse , Félix Raimundo , Jean-Philippe Vert

No unmeasured confounding is a common assumption when reasoning about counterfactual outcomes, but such an assumption may not be plausible in observational studies. Sensitivity analysis is often employed to assess the robustness of causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-20 Abhinandan Dalal , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen