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Time-varying linear state-space models are powerful tools for obtaining mathematically interpretable representations of neural signals. For example, switching and decomposed models describe complex systems using latent variables that evolve…

We propose an econometric environment for structural break detection in nonstationary quantile predictive regressions. We establish the limit distributions for a class of Wald and fluctuation type statistics based on both the ordinary least…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-02-13 Christis Katsouris

We propose an algorithm to actively estimate the parameters of a linear dynamical system. Given complete control over the system's input, our algorithm adaptively chooses the inputs to accelerate estimation. We show a finite time bound…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-23 Andrew Wagenmaker , Kevin Jamieson

Bandit algorithms have become a reference solution for interactive recommendation. However, as such algorithms directly interact with users for improved recommendations, serious privacy concerns have been raised regarding its practical use.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-01 Huazheng Wang , David Zhao , Hongning Wang

Discrete-time models are very convenient to simulate a nonlinear system on a computer. In order to build the discrete-time simulation models for the nonlinear feedback systems (which is a very important class of systems in many…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-05-15 Rishi Relan , Johan Schoukens

Predicting the response of nonlinear dynamical systems subject to random, broadband excitation is important across a range of scientific disciplines, such as structural dynamics and neuroscience. Building data-driven models requires…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-27 Joseph Massingham , Ole Nielsen , Tore Butlin

We consider the problem of controlling a known linear dynamical system under stochastic noise, adversarially chosen costs, and bandit feedback. Unlike the full feedback setting where the entire cost function is revealed after each decision,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-03 Asaf Cassel , Tomer Koren

We revisit classical asymptotics when testing for a structural break in linear regression models by obtaining the limit theory of residual-based and Wald-type processes. First, we establish the Brownian bridge limiting distribution of these…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-02-16 Christis Katsouris

We study the linear stochastic bandit problem, relaxing the standard i.i.d. assumption on the observation noise. As an alternative to this restrictive assumption, we allow the noise terms across rounds to be sub-Gaussian but interdependent,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-28 Baptiste Abélès , Eugenio Clerico , Hamish Flynn , Gergely Neu

This paper considers the problem of estimating linear dynamic system models when the observations are corrupted by random disturbances with nonstandard distributions. The paper is particularly motivated by applications where sensor…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-09 Johan Dahlin , Adrian Wills , Brett Ninness

System identification is of special interest in science and engineering. This article is concerned with a system identification problem arising in stochastic dynamic systems, where the aim is to estimate the parameters of a system along…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-27 Christos Merkatas , Simo Särkkä

Mathematical models of real life phenomena are highly nonlinear involving multiple parameters and often exhibiting complex dynamics. Experimental data sets are typically small and noisy, rendering estimation of parameters from such data…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2017-05-11 Abhirup Ghosh , Samit Bhattacharyya , Somdatta Sinha , Amit Apte

The paper algorithmizes the problem of regime change point identification for data measured in a system exhibiting impulsive behaviors. This is a fundamental challenge for annotation of measurement data relevant, e.g., for designing…

This paper addresses the problem of learning linear dynamical systems from noisy observations. In this setting, existing algorithms either yield biased parameter estimates or have large sample complexities. We resolve these issues by…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-09-08 Yuyang Zhang , Xinhe Zhang , Jia Liu , Na Li

We present a method for providing statistical guarantees on runtime safety and goal reachability for integrated planning and control of a class of systems with unknown nonlinear stochastic underactuated dynamics. Specifically, given a…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-12-15 Craig Knuth , Glen Chou , Jamie Reese , Joe Moore

Real-world applications of contextual bandits often exhibit non-stationarity due to seasonality, serendipity, and evolving social trends. While a number of non-stationary contextual bandit learning algorithms have been proposed in the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-17 Zheqing Zhu , Yueyang Liu , Xu Kuang , Benjamin Van Roy

Understanding how systems evolve over time often requires discovering the differential equations that govern their behavior. Automatically learning these equations from experimental data is challenging when the data are noisy or limited,…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-11-19 Oriol Cabanas-Tirapu , Sergio Cobo-Lopez , Savannah E. Sanchez , Forest L. Rohwer , Marta Sales-Pardo , Roger Guimerà

Contextual dynamic pricing aims to set personalized prices based on sequential interactions with customers. At each time period, a customer who is interested in purchasing a product comes to the platform. The customer's valuation for the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-03-07 Yiyun Luo , Will Wei Sun , and Yufeng Liu

In many real-world sequential decision-making problems, an action does not immediately reflect on the feedback and spreads its effects over a long time frame. For instance, in online advertising, investing in a platform produces an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-31 Marco Mussi , Alberto Maria Metelli , Marcello Restelli

Estimation problems with constrained parameter spaces arise in various settings. In many of these problems, the observations available to the statistician can be modelled as arising from the noisy realization of the image of a random linear…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-23 Reese Pathak , Martin J. Wainwright , Lin Xiao
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