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We introduce Preconditioned Monte Carlo (PMC), a novel Monte Carlo method for Bayesian inference that facilitates efficient sampling of probability distributions with non-trivial geometry. PMC utilises a Normalising Flow (NF) in order to…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-08-24 Minas Karamanis , Florian Beutler , John A. Peacock , David Nabergoj , Uros Seljak

Nonlinear non-Gaussian state-space models arise in numerous applications in statistics and signal processing. In this context, one of the most successful and popular approximation techniques is the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm,…

Computation · Statistics 2016-04-20 Francois Septier , Gareth W. Peters

We present an original simulation-based method to estimate likelihood ratios efficiently for general state-space models. Our method relies on a novel use of the conditional Sequential Monte Carlo (cSMC) algorithm introduced in…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-10 Sinan Yıldırım , Christophe Andrieu , Arnaud Doucet

In the following paper we provide a review and development of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for option pricing. SMC are a class of Monte Carlo-based algorithms, that are designed to approximate expectations w.r.t a sequence of…

Computation · Statistics 2010-05-27 Ajay Jasra , Pierre Del Moral

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) is an inference algorithm for state space models that approximates the posterior by sampling from a sequence of target distributions. The target distributions are often chosen to be the filtering distributions,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Dieterich Lawson , Allan Raventós , Andrew Warrington , Scott Linderman

Most of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms in existing probabilistic programming systems suboptimally use only model priors as proposal distributions. In this work, we describe an approach for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-05-17 Yura N Perov , Tuan Anh Le , Frank Wood

Mechanistic models are essential tools across ecology, epidemiology, and the life sciences, but parameter inference remains challenging when likelihood functions are intractable. Approximate Bayesian Computation with Sequential Monte Carlo…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-11-27 Mario Castro

We propose a new framework for Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) on truncated probability distributions with smooth underlying density functions. Traditional HMC requires computing the gradient of potential function associated with the target…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-09-12 Kexin Yi , Finale Doshi-Velez

We consider the problem of estimating expectations with respect to a target distribution with an unknown normalizing constant, and where even the unnormalized target needs to be approximated at finite resolution. Under such an assumption,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-06-29 Xinzhu Liang , Shangda Yang , Simon L. Cotter , Kody J. H. Law

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms were originally designed for estimating intractable conditional expectations within state-space models, but are now routinely used to generate approximate samples in the context of general-purpose…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-11 Jonathan H. Huggins , Daniel M. Roy

Even after fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, large language models (LLMs) can be difficult, if not impossible, to control reliably with prompts alone. We propose a new inference-time approach to enforcing syntactic and semantic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-11-28 Alexander K. Lew , Tan Zhi-Xuan , Gabriel Grand , Vikash K. Mansinghka

We present a mathematical framework for constructing and analyzing parallel algorithms for lattice Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations. The resulting algorithms have the capacity to simulate a wide range of spatio-temporal scales in…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-05-28 Giorgos Arampatzis , Markos A. Katsoulakis , Petr Plechac , Michela Taufer , Lifan Xu

This paper studies a non-random-walk Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, namely the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method in the context of Subset Simulation used for structural reliability analysis. The HMC method relies on a deterministic…

Computation · Statistics 2018-04-20 Ziqi Wang , Marco Broccardo , Junho Song

This paper introduces methodology for performing Bayesian inference sequentially on a sequence of posteriors on spaces of different dimensions. We show how this may be achieved through the use of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers (Del…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-02 Richard G Everitt , Richard Culliford , Felipe Medina-Aguayo , Daniel J Wilson

We propose kernel sequential Monte Carlo (KSMC), a framework for sampling from static target densities. KSMC is a family of sequential Monte Carlo algorithms that are based on building emulator models of the current particle system in a…

Computation · Statistics 2017-07-26 Ingmar Schuster , Heiko Strathmann , Brooks Paige , Dino Sejdinovic

Several disciplines, such as econometrics, neuroscience, and computational psychology, study the dynamic interactions between variables over time. A Bayesian nonparametric model known as the Wishart process has been shown to be effective in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-10 Hester Huijsdens , David Leeftink , Linda Geerligs , Max Hinne

Modern macroeconometrics often relies on time series models for which it is time-consuming to evaluate the likelihood function. We demonstrate how Bayesian computations for such models can be drastically accelerated by reweighting and…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-09-10 Marko Mlikota , Frank Schorfheide

Bayesian inference in the presence of an intractable likelihood function is computationally challenging. When following a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to approximate the posterior distribution in this context, one typically…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-03 Johan Alenlöv , Arnaud Doucet , Fredrik Lindsten

In this paper we introduce and formalize Substochastic Monte Carlo (SSMC) algorithms. These algorithms, originally intended to be a better classical foil to quantum annealing than simulated annealing, prove to be worthy optimization…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2017-05-01 Michael Jarret , Brad Lackey

One of the open challenges in quantum computing is to find meaningful and practical methods to leverage quantum computation to accelerate classical machine learning workflows. A ubiquitous problem in machine learning workflows is sampling…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-08-08 Owen Lockwood , Peter Weiss , Filip Aronshtein , Guillaume Verdon