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This paper provides clear and practical guidance on the specification of imputation models when multiple imputation is used in conjunction with doubly robust estimation methods for causal inference. Through theoretical arguments and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-19 Lucy D'Agostino McGowan

The inference of causal relationships using observational data from partially observed multivariate systems with hidden variables is a fundamental question in many scientific domains. Methods extracting causal information from conditional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-13 Daniel Chicharro , Michel Besserve , Stefano Panzeri

In a previous paper [Pearl and Verma, 1991] we presented an algorithm for extracting causal influences from independence information, where a causal influence was defined as the existence of a directed arc in all minimal causal models…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-25 Tom S. Verma , Judea Pearl

At the heart of causal structure learning from observational data lies a deceivingly simple question: given two statistically dependent random variables, which one has a causal effect on the other? This is impossible to answer using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-13 Nikolaos Nikolaou , Konstantinos Sechidis

Causal discovery aims to infer causal relationships among variables from observational data, typically represented by a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Most existing methods assume independent and identically distributed observations, an…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-27 Alex Chen , Qing Zhou

We address the problem of integrating data from multiple, possibly biased, observational and interventional studies, to eventually compute counterfactuals in structural causal models. We start from the case of a single observational dataset…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-17 Marco Zaffalon , Alessandro Antonucci , David Huber , Rafael Cabañas

It is a truth universally acknowledged that an observed association without known mechanism must be in want of a causal estimate. However, causal estimation from observational data often relies on the (untestable) assumption of `no…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-10 Victor Veitch , Anisha Zaveri

Certain causal models involving unmeasured variables induce no independence constraints among the observed variables but imply, nevertheless, inequality contraints on the observed distribution. This paper derives a general formula for such…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-21 Judea Pearl

Inferring causal relationships between variable pairs in the observational study is crucial but challenging, due to the presence of unmeasured confounding. While previous methods employed the negative controls to adjust for the confounding…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-21 Yong Wu , Yanwei Fu , Shouyan Wang , Yizhou Wang , Xinwei Sun

If $X,Y,Z$ denote sets of random variables, two different data sources may contain samples from $P_{X,Y}$ and $P_{Y,Z}$, respectively. We argue that causal inference can help inferring properties of the 'unobserved joint distributions'…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-05-18 Dominik Janzing

To conduct causal inference in observational settings, researchers must rely on certain identifying assumptions. In practice, these assumptions are unlikely to hold exactly. This paper considers the bias of selection-on-observables,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-26 Melody Huang , Cory McCartan

We present a constraint-based algorithm for learning causal structures from observational time-series data, in the presence of latent confounders. We assume a discrete-time, stationary structural vector autoregressive process, with both…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-06-02 Raanan Y. Rohekar , Shami Nisimov , Yaniv Gurwicz , Gal Novik

We consider the estimation of average treatment effects in observational studies and propose a new framework of robust causal inference with unobserved confounders. Our approach is based on distributionally robust optimization and proceeds…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-06 Dimitris Bertsimas , Kosuke Imai , Michael Lingzhi Li

Causal inference from observational data provides strong evidence for the best action in decision-making without performing expensive randomized trials. The effect of an action is usually not identifiable under unobserved confounding, even…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Md Musfiqur Rahman , Ziwei Jiang , Hilaf Hasson , Murat Kocaoglu

Nowadays, the need for causal discovery is ubiquitous. A better understanding of not just the stochastic dependencies between parts of a system, but also the actual cause-effect relations, is essential for all parts of science. Thus, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-10 Boris Lorbeer , Mustafa Mohsen

We consider the problem of estimating a particular type of linear non-Gaussian model. Without resorting to the overcomplete Independent Component Analysis (ICA), we show that under some mild assumptions, the model is uniquely identified by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-29 Wei Chen , Kun Zhang , Ruichu Cai , Biwei Huang , Joseph Ramsey , Zhifeng Hao , Clark Glymour

We introduce DeCaFlow, a deconfounding causal generative model. Training once per dataset using just observational data and the underlying causal graph, DeCaFlow enables accurate causal inference on continuous variables under the presence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-27 Alejandro Almodóvar , Adrián Javaloy , Juan Parras , Santiago Zazo , Isabel Valera

This paper introduces an innovative method for conducting conditional independence testing in high-dimensional data, facilitating the automated discovery of significant associations within distinct subgroups of a population, all while…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-19 Matteo Sesia , Tianshu Sun

For a continuous random variable $Z$, testing conditional independence $X \perp\!\!\!\perp Y |Z$ is known to be a particularly hard problem. It constitutes a key ingredient of many constraint-based causal discovery algorithms. These…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-21 Philip A. Boeken , Joris M. Mooij

Identifying causal relationships from observational time series data is a key problem in disciplines such as climate science or neuroscience, where experiments are often not possible. Data-driven causal inference is challenging since…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-03 Jakob Runge , Peer Nowack , Marlene Kretschmer , Seth Flaxman , Dino Sejdinovic
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