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Hidden Markov models with observations in a Euclidean space play an important role in signal and image processing. Previous work extending to models where observations lie in Riemannian manifolds based on the Baum-Welch algorithm suffered…
The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) can predict the future value of a time series based on its current and previous values, making it a powerful algorithm for handling various types of time series. Numerous studies have explored the improvement…
There is an increase in interest to model driving maneuver patterns via the automatic unsupervised clustering of naturalistic sequential kinematic driving data. The patterns learned are often used in transportation research areas such as…
We search for digital biomarkers from Parkinson's Disease by observing approximate repetitive patterns matching hypothesized step and stride periodic cycles. These observations were modeled as a cycle of hidden states with randomness…
It is proved that in non-relativistic quantum mechanics (without spin) the transition probability may be described in terms of particle paths, every path having a (positive) probability. This leads to a stochastic hidden variables theory…
Probabilistic programming languages can simplify the development of machine learning techniques, but only if inference is sufficiently scalable. Unfortunately, Bayesian parameter estimation for highly coupled models such as regressions and…
We propose a unified framework that extends the inference methods for classical hidden Markov models to continuous settings, where both the hidden states and observations occur in continuous time. Two different settings are analyzed: hidden…
The EM procedure is a principal tool for parameter estimation in the hidden Markov models. However, applications replace EM by Viterbi extraction, or training (VT). VT is computationally less intensive, more stable and has more of an…
We aim at the construction of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) of assigned complexity (number of states of the underlying Markov chain) which best approximates, in Kullback-Leibler divergence rate, a given stationary process. We establish, under…
We consider the filtering of continuous-time finite-state hidden Markov models, where the rate and observation matrices depend on unknown time-dependent parameters, for which no prior or stochastic model is available. We quantify and…
We consider the problem of estimating the number of hidden states (the order) of a nonparametric hidden Markov model (HMM). We propose two different methods and prove their almost sure consistency without any prior assumption, be it on the…
As physics searches for invariants in observations, this paper looks for invariants of probabilistic observation without assuming physical structure. Structure emerges from the basic assumption of science that new information shall lead to…
This paper deals with parameter estimation in pair hidden Markov models (pair-HMMs). We first provide a rigorous formalism for these models and discuss possible definitions of likelihoods. The model being biologically motivated, some…
In this letter we borrow from the inference techniques developed for unbounded state-cardinality (nonparametric) variants of the HMM and use them to develop a tuning-parameter free, black-box inference procedure for Explicit-state-duration…
Momentum is a popular technique for improving convergence rates during gradient descent. In this research, we experiment with adding momentum to the Baum-Welch expectation-maximization algorithm for training Hidden Markov Models. We compare…
In this paper we are interested in the problem of adaptive state observation of linear time-varying (LTV) systems where the system and the input matrices depend on unknown time-varying parameters. It is assumed that these parameters satisfy…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) have been used increasingly to understand how movement patterns of animals arise from behavioural states. An animal is assumed to transition between behavioural states through time, as described by transition…
The detection of change-points in heterogeneous sequences is a statistical challenge with many applications in fields such as finance, signal analysis and biology. A wide variety of literature exists for finding an ideal set of…
Modeling continuous-time physiological processes that manifest a patient's evolving clinical states is a key step in approaching many problems in healthcare. In this paper, we develop the Hidden Absorbing Semi-Markov Model (HASMM): a…
The class of observation-driven models (ODMs) includes many models of non-linear time series which, in a fashion similar to, yet different from, hidden Markov models (HMMs), involve hidden variables. Interestingly, in contrast to most HMMs,…