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Work in Counterfactual Explanations tends to focus on the principle of "the closest possible world" that identifies small changes leading to the desired outcome. In this paper we argue that while this approach might initially seem…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-25 Rafael Poyiadzi , Kacper Sokol , Raul Santos-Rodriguez , Tijl De Bie , Peter Flach

Counterfactuals are central in causal human reasoning and the scientific discovery process. The uplift, also called conditional average treatment effect, measures the causal effect of some action, or treatment, on the outcome of an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Théo Verhelst , Denis Mercier , Jeevan Shrestha , Gianluca Bontempi

Estimating the counterfactual outcome of treatment is essential for decision-making in public health and clinical science, among others. Often, treatments are administered in a sequential, time-varying manner, leading to an exponentially…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-16 Shenghao Wu , Wenbin Zhou , Minshuo Chen , Shixiang Zhu

Foundation models trained on web-scraped datasets propagate societal biases to downstream tasks. While counterfactual generation enables bias analysis, existing methods introduce artifacts by modifying contextual elements like clothing and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-12-13 Kirill Sirotkin , Marcos Escudero-Viñolo , Pablo Carballeira , Mayug Maniparambil , Catarina Barata , Noel E. O'Connor

We present a novel generative method for producing unseen and plausible counterfactual examples for reinforcement learning (RL) agents based upon outcome variables that characterize agent behavior. Our approach uses a variational…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Eric Yeh , Pedro Sequeira , Jesse Hostetler , Melinda Gervasio

Autonomous multi-agent systems (MAS) are useful for automating complex tasks but raise trust concerns due to risks such as miscoordination or goal misalignment. Explainability is vital for users' trust calibration, but explainable MAS face…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-30 Bálint Gyevnár , Christopher G. Lucas , Stefano V. Albrecht , Shay B. Cohen

We propose an architecture for training generative models of counterfactual conditionals of the form, 'can we modify event A to cause B instead of C?', motivated by applications in robot control. Using an 'adversarial training' paradigm, an…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-09-23 Simón C. Smith , Subramanian Ramamoorthy

We propose a formal model for counterfactual estimation with unobserved confounding in "data-rich" settings, i.e., where there are a large number of units and a large number of measurements per unit. Our model provides a bridge between the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-04-03 Alberto Abadie , Anish Agarwal , Devavrat Shah

We propose a novel training regime termed counterfactual training that leverages counterfactual explanations to increase the explanatory capacity of models. Counterfactual explanations have emerged as a popular post-hoc explanation method…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-23 Patrick Altmeyer , Aleksander Buszydlik , Arie van Deursen , Cynthia C. S. Liem

Interactive constraint systems often suffer from infeasibility (no solution) due to conflicting user constraints. A common approach to recover infeasibility is to eliminate the constraints that cause the conflicts in the system. This…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-04-08 Sharmi Dev Gupta , Begum Genc , Barry O'Sullivan

Counterfactual explanations are a common tool to explain artificial intelligence models. For Reinforcement Learning (RL) agents, they answer "Why not?" or "What if?" questions by illustrating what minimal change to a state is needed such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-27 Tobias Huber , Maximilian Demmler , Silvan Mertes , Matthew L. Olson , Elisabeth André

Evaluating hypothetical statements about how the world would be had a different course of action been taken is arguably one key capability expected from modern AI systems. Counterfactual reasoning underpins discussions in fairness, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-04 Kevin Xia , Yushu Pan , Elias Bareinboim

We consider counterfactual explanations, the problem of minimally adjusting features in a source input instance so that it is classified as a target class under a given classifier. This has become a topic of recent interest as a way to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-02 Miguel Á. Carreira-Perpiñán , Suryabhan Singh Hada

Open-domain dialogue generation suffers from the data insufficiency problem due to the vast size of potential responses. In this paper, we propose to explore potential responses by counterfactual reasoning. Given an observed response, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-12 Qingfu Zhu , Weinan Zhang , Ting Liu , William Yang Wang

Counterfactual explanations constitute among the most popular methods for analyzing black-box systems since they can recommend cost-efficient and actionable changes to the input of a system to obtain the desired system output. While most of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-22 André Artelt , Andreas Gregoriades

Counterfactuals operationalised through algorithmic recourse have become a powerful tool to make artificial intelligence systems explainable. Conceptually, given an individual classified as y -- the factual -- we seek actions such that…

Counterfactual explanation methods have recently received significant attention for explaining CNN-based image classifiers due to their ability to provide easily understandable explanations that align more closely with human reasoning.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Syed Ali Tariq , Tehseen Zia

Counterfactual reasoning is an important paradigm applicable in many fields, such as healthcare, economics, and education. In this work, we propose a novel method to address the issue of \textit{selection bias}. We learn two groups of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-20 Zichen Zhang , Qingfeng Lan , Lei Ding , Yue Wang , Negar Hassanpour , Russell Greiner

Estimation and counterfactual analysis in dynamic structural models rely on assumptions about the dynamic process of latent variables, which may be misspecified. We propose a framework to quantify the sensitivity of scalar parameters of…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-17 Ertian Chen

Reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms usually require a substantial amount of interaction data and perform well only for specific tasks in a fixed environment. In some scenarios such as healthcare, however, usually only few records are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-17 Chaochao Lu , Biwei Huang , Ke Wang , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato , Kun Zhang , Bernhard Schölkopf
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