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This study introduces a cutting-edge regional weather forecasting model based on the SwinTransformer 3D architecture. This model is specifically designed to deliver precise hourly weather predictions ranging from 1 hour to 5 days,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Hongli Liang , Yuanting Zhang , Qingye Meng , Shuangshuang He , Xingyuan Yuan

Diffusion models based on permutation-equivariant networks can learn permutation-invariant distributions for graph data. However, in comparison to their non-invariant counterparts, we have found that these invariant models encounter greater…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-21 Qi Yan , Zhengyang Liang , Yang Song , Renjie Liao , Lele Wang

Accurate prediction of extreme weather events remains a major challenge for artificial intelligence-based weather prediction systems. While deterministic models such as FuXi, GraphCast, and SFNO have achieved competitive forecast skill…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-05-01 Rodrigo Almeida , Noelia Otero , Miguel-Ángel Fernández-Torres , Jackie Ma

Statistical postprocessing is used to translate ensembles of raw numerical weather forecasts into reliable probabilistic forecast distributions. In this study, we examine the use of permutation-invariant neural networks for this task. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-22 Kevin Höhlein , Benedikt Schulz , Rüdiger Westermann , Sebastian Lerch

Integrating CNNs and RNNs to capture spatiotemporal dependencies is a prevalent strategy for spatiotemporal prediction tasks. However, the property of CNNs to learn local spatial information decreases their efficiency in capturing…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-12-27 Song Tang , Chuang Li , Pu Zhang , RongNian Tang

While numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are essential for forecasting thunderstorms hours in advance, NWP uncertainty, which increases with lead time, limits the predictability of thunderstorm occurrence. This study investigates how…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-02-20 Kianusch Vahid Yousefnia , Tobias Bölle , Christoph Metzl

We propose an autoencoding sequence-based transceiver for communication over dispersive channels with intensity modulation and direct detection (IM/DD), designed as a bidirectional deep recurrent neural network (BRNN). The receiver uses a…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2019-07-24 Boris Karanov , Domaniç Lavery , Polina Bayvel , Laurent Schmalen

Quantifying forecast uncertainty is a key aspect of state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction and data assimilation systems. Ensemble-based data assimilation systems incorporate state-dependent uncertainty quantification based on…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-05-17 Maximiliano A. Sacco , Manuel Pulido , Juan J. Ruiz , Pierre Tandeo

High-resolution precipitation forecasts are crucial for providing accurate weather prediction and supporting effective responses to extreme weather events. Traditional numerical models struggle with stochastic subgrid-scale processes, while…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-07 Shuangshuang He , Hongli Liang , Yuanting Zhang , Xingyuan Yuan

Ensemble weather predictions require statistical post-processing of systematic errors to obtain reliable and accurate probabilistic forecasts. Traditionally, this is accomplished with distributional regression models in which the parameters…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-01 Stephan Rasp , Sebastian Lerch

Ensemble prediction systems are an invaluable tool for weather forecasting. Practically, ensemble predictions are obtained by running several perturbations of the deterministic control forecast. However, ensemble prediction is associated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-22 Rüdiger Brecht , Alex Bihlo

Despite the soaring use of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) in mobile applications, uniformly sustaining high-performance inference on mobile has been elusive due to the excessive computational demands of modern CNNs and the increasing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-25 Stefanos Laskaridis , Stylianos I. Venieris , Mario Almeida , Ilias Leontiadis , Nicholas D. Lane

Studying low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems presently use up to 100 members, larger ensembles could enrich…

Weather forecasting is essential for facilitating diverse socio-economic activity and environmental conservation initiatives. Deep learning techniques are increasingly being explored as complementary approaches to Numerical Weather…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-28 Marco Turzi , Siamak Mehrkanoon

Scientific modeling faces a tradeoff between the interpretability of mechanistic theory and the predictive power of machine learning. While existing hybrid approaches have made progress by incorporating domain knowledge into machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-15 Carson Dudley , Reiden Magdaleno , Christopher Harding , Marisa Eisenberg

Multivariate time-series (MTS) forecasting is a paramount and fundamental problem in many real-world applications. The core issue in MTS forecasting is how to effectively model complex spatial-temporal patterns. In this paper, we develop a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-16 Jinliang Deng , Xiusi Chen , Renhe Jiang , Du Yin , Yi Yang , Xuan Song , Ivor W. Tsang

Ensemble forecasting systems have advanced meteorology by providing probabilistic estimates of future states. Nonetheless, systematic biases often persist, making statistical post-processing essential. Traditional parametric post-processing…

Applications · Statistics 2026-02-17 Mária Lakatos

Spatiotemporal forecasting has various applications in neuroscience, climate and transportation domain. Traffic forecasting is one canonical example of such learning task. The task is challenging due to (1) complex spatial dependency on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-02-26 Yaguang Li , Rose Yu , Cyrus Shahabi , Yan Liu

An ensemble post-processing method is developed for the probabilistic prediction of severe weather (tornadoes, hail, and wind gusts) over the conterminous United States (CONUS). The method combines conditional generative adversarial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-17 Yingkai Sha , Ryan A. Sobash , David John Gagne

Classifying the state of the atmosphere into a finite number of large-scale circulation regimes is a popular way of investigating teleconnections, the predictability of severe weather events, and climate change. Here, we investigate a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-02 Andreas Holm Nielsen , Alexandros Iosifidis , Henrik Karstoft