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A central theme in the field of survey statistics is estimating population-level quantities through data coming from potentially non-representative samples of the population. Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP), a model-based…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-17 Yuxiang Gao , Lauren Kennedy , Daniel Simpson , Andrew Gelman

Measuring public opinion at subnational geographies is critical to many theories in political science. Multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) is a popular tool for doing so, although existing work is limited to measuring…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Max Goplerud , Michael Auslen

Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) is a popular method for addressing selection bias in subgroup estimation, with broad applications across fields from social sciences to public health. In this paper, we examine the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-06 Yajuan Si

Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) is a flexible modeling technique that has been used in a broad range of small-area estimation problems. Traditionally, MRP studies have been focused on non-causal settings, where estimating…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-24 Yuxiang Gao , Lauren Kennedy , Daniel Simpson

Health disparity research often evaluates health outcomes across demographic subgroups. Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) is a popular approach for small subgroup estimation due to its ability to stabilize estimates by…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-26 Katherine Li , Yajuan Si

In the November 2016 U.S. presidential election, many state level public opinion polls, particularly in the Upper Midwest, incorrectly predicted the winning candidate. One leading explanation for this polling miss is that the precipitous…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-15 Eli Ben-Michael , Avi Feller , Erin Hartman

We analyzed 2012 and 2016 YouGov pre-election polls in order to understand how different population groups voted in the 2012 and 2016 elections. We broke the data down by demographics and state. We display our findings with a series of…

Applications · Statistics 2018-03-15 Rob Trangucci , Imad Ali , Andrew Gelman , Doug Rivers

Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) is a computationally efficient indirect estimation method that can quickly produce improved population-adjusted estimates with limited data. Recent computational advancements allow…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-07 Aja Sutton , Zack W. Almquist , Jon Wakefield

The only acceptable form of polling in the multi-billion dollar survey research field utilizes representative samples. We argue that with proper statistical adjustment, non-representative polling can provide accurate predictions, and often…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2014-07-01 David Rothschild , Sharad Goel , Andrew Gelman , Doug Rivers

We evaluate several augmentations to the choropleth map to convey additional information, including glyphs, 3D, cartograms, juxtaposed maps, and shading methods. While choropleth maps are a common method used to represent societal data,…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2020-05-04 Lonni Besançon , Matthew Cooper , Anders Ynnerman , Frédéric Vernier

Information visualization significantly enhances human perception by graphically representing complex data sets. The variety of visualization designs makes it challenging to efficiently evaluate all possible designs catering to users'…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-07 Xiaoning Kang , Xiaoyu Chen , Ran Jin , Hao Wu , Xinwei Deng

Psychology research focuses on interactions, and this has deep implications for inference from non-representative samples. For the goal of estimating average treatment effects, we propose to fit a model allowing treatment to interact with…

Applications · Statistics 2020-04-15 Lauren Kennedy , Andrew Gelman

We develop methodology for visualization of labeled mixed-featured datasets. We first investigate datasets with continuous features where our Max-Ratio Projection (MRP) method utilizes the group information in high dimensions to provide…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-14 Yifan Zhu , Fan Dai , Ranjan Maitra

Subsampling is a widely used and effective approach for addressing the computational challenges posed by massive datasets. Substantial progress has been made in developing non-uniform, probability-based subsampling schemes that prioritize…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-07 Dingyi Wang , Haiying Wang , Qingpei Hu

Choropleth maps have been studied and extended in many ways to counteract the many biases that can occur when using them. Two recent techniques, Surprise metrics and Value Suppressing Uncertainty Palettes (VSUPs), offer promising solutions…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2023-07-31 Akim Ndlovu , Hilson Shrestha , Lane T. Harrison

Call detail records (CDR) from mobile phone networks are widely used to study human mobility however CDR data from a single mobile operator are inherently biased because the observed users do not mirror the population distribution. Using…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-04-20 Leo Ferres , Laetitia Gauvin

Generalization to new samples is a fundamental rationale for statistical modeling. For this purpose, model validation is particularly important, but recent work in survey inference has suggested that simple aggregation of individual…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-15 Lauren Kennedy , Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman

Real estate appraisal refers to the process of developing an unbiased opinion for real property's market value, which plays a vital role in decision-making for various players in the marketplace (e.g., real estate agents, appraisers,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-03 Weijia Zhang , Hao Liu , Lijun Zha , Hengshu Zhu , Ji Liu , Dejing Dou , Hui Xiong

Describing the world behavior through mathematical functions help scientists to achieve a better understanding of the inner mechanisms of different phenomena. Traditionally, this is done by deriving new equations from first principles and…

In recent years, Multi-View Clustering (MVC) has attracted increasing attention for its potential to reduce the annotation burden associated with large datasets. The aim of MVC is to exploit the inherent consistency and complementarity…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-12 Zhangci Xiong , Meng Cao
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