English
Related papers

Related papers: Estimating Waning of Vaccine Effectiveness: a Simu…

200 papers

We develop semiparametric methods for estimating subgroup-specific relative vaccine efficacy against multiple viral strains in a partially vaccinated population. Focusing on observational case-only studies, we address informative…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-12 Lars van der Laan , Peter B. Gilbert

In this paper, we extend the classical SIRS (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible) model from mathematical epidemiology by incorporating a vaccinated compartment, V, accounting for an imperfect vaccine with waning efficacy over…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-01-30 Joseph Páez Chávez , Aytül Gökçe , Thomas Götz , Burcu Gürbüz

Real world data is an increasingly utilized resource for post-market monitoring of vaccines and provides insight into real world effectiveness. However, outside of the setting of a clinical trial, heterogeneous mechanisms may drive observed…

In this article, we propose a theory to explain the reduction in vaccine effectiveness (VE) against the Delta SARS-CoV-2 variant and decreasing VE over time reported in recent studies. Using a model illustration, we show that in-host viral…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-12-09 Wan Yang , Jeffrey Shaman

Understanding how vaccines perform against different pathogen genotypes is crucial for developing effective prevention strategies, particularly for highly genetically diverse pathogens like HIV. Sieve analysis is a statistical framework…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-11 James Peng , Michal Juraska , Pamela A. Shaw , Peter B. Gilbert

Vaccination policies play a central role in public health interventions and models are often used to assess the effectiveness of these policies. Many vaccines are leaky, in which case the observed vaccine effectiveness depends on the force…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-04-21 Gray Manicom , Emily Harvey , Joshua Looker , David Wu , Oliver Maclaren , Dion O' Neale

Estimating vaccination uptake is an integral part of ensuring public health. It was recently shown that vaccination uptake can be estimated automatically from web data, instead of slowly collected clinical records or population surveys. All…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2017-02-24 Niels Dalum Hansen , Kåre Mølbak , Ingemar J. Cox , Christina Lioma

The waning of immunity after recovery or vaccination is a major factor accounting for the severity and prolonged duration of an array of epidemics, ranging from COVID-19 to diphtheria and pertussis. To study the effectiveness of different…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-02-01 Shoshana Elgart

The interpretation of vaccine efficacy estimands is subtle, even in randomized trials designed to quantify immunological effects of vaccination. In this article, we introduce terminology to distinguish between different vaccine efficacy…

Applications · Statistics 2023-11-15 Mats Stensrud , Daniel Nevo , Uri Obolski

Early on during a pandemic, vaccine availability is limited, requiring prioritisation of different population groups. Evaluating vaccine allocation is therefore a crucial element of pandemics response. In the present work, we develop a…

RNA-based vaccination has been broadly applied in the COVID pandemic. A characteristic of the immunization was fast waning immunity. However, the time scale of this process varied considerable for virus subtypes and among individuals.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-11-10 Juan Magalang , Tyll Krueger , Joerg Galle

Missingness and measurement frequency are two sides of the same coin. How frequent should we measure clinical variables and conduct laboratory tests? It depends on many factors such as the stability of patient conditions, diagnostic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-16 Jiacheng Liu , Jaideep Srivastava

Immune correlates of protection (CoPs) are immunologic biomarkers accepted as a surrogate for an infectious disease clinical endpoint and thus can be used for traditional or provisional vaccine approval. To study CoPs in randomized,…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-14 Peter B. Gilbert , Youyi Fong , Marco Carone

The Cox model is an indispensable tool for time-to-event analysis, particularly in biomedical research. However, medicine is undergoing a profound transformation, generating data at an unprecedented scale, which opens new frontiers to study…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-07 Alexander W. Jung , Moritz Gerstung

The case-cohort design is a commonly used cost-effective sampling strategy for large cohort studies, where some covariates are expensive to measure or obtain. In this paper, we consider regression analysis under a case-cohort study with…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-24 Qingning Zhou , Kin Yau Wong

In two harmonized efficacy studies to prevent HIV infection through multiple infusions of the monoclonal antibody VRC01, a key objective is to evaluate whether the serum concentration of VRC01, which changes cyclically over time along with…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-26 Yunda Huang , Yuanyuan Zhang , Zong Zhang , Peter B. Gilbert

Shape-restricted inferences have exhibited empirical success in various applications with survival data. However, certain works fall short in providing a rigorous theoretical justification and an easy-to-use variance estimator with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-10 Junjun Lang , Yukun Liu , Jing Qin

Cox's proportional hazards model is one of the most popular statistical models to evaluate associations of exposure with a censored failure time outcome. When confounding factors are not fully observed, the exposure hazard ratio estimated…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-04 Linbo Wang , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen , Torben Martinussen , Stijn Vansteelandt

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted significant challenges in the allocation of vital healthcare resources. Existing epidemiological models, specifically compartmental models, aimed to predict the spread of the COVID-19 virus and its impact…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-03-14 Hieu Bui , Sandra Eksioglu , Ruben Proano

Refined vaccine regimens containing variant-matched inserts are often authorized based on historical phase 3 efficacy trials together with immunobridging studies. Phase 3 trials are essential for establishing immune biomarkers that reliably…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-16 Pan Zhao , Peter B. Gilbert , Oliver Dukes , Bo Zhang