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We analyst in detail a new approach to the monitoring and forecasting of the onset of transitions in high dimensional complex systems (see Phys. Rev. Lett . vol. 113, 264102 (2014)) by application to the Tangled Nature Model of evolutionary…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2015-08-03 Duccio Piovani , Jelena Grujic , Henrik Jeldtoft Jensen

The EM (Expectation-Maximization) algorithm is regarded as an MM (Majorization-Minimization) algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of statistical models. Expanding this view, this paper demonstrates that by choosing an appropriate…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-02-12 Kensuke Asai , Jun-ya Gotoh

We propose algorithms for approximate filtering and smoothing in high-dimensional Factorial hidden Markov models. The approximation involves discarding, in a principled way, likelihood factors according to a notion of locality in a factor…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-04 Lorenzo Rimella , Nick Whiteley

The proliferation of intermittent distributed renewable energy sources (RES) in modern power systems has fundamentally compromised the reliability and accuracy of deterministic net load forecasting. Generative models, particularly diffusion…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-06-04 Yixiang Huang , Jianhua Pei , Luocheng Chen , Zhenchang Du , Jinfu Chen , Zirui Peng

This manuscript presents an approach to perform generalized linear regression with multiple high dimensional covariance matrices as the outcome. Model parameters are proposed to be estimated by maximizing a pseudo-likelihood. When the data…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-28 Yi Zhao , Brian S. Caffo , Xi Luo

This paper presents a new parameter estimation algorithm for the adaptive control of a class of time-varying plants. The main feature of this algorithm is a matrix of time-varying learning rates, which enables parameter estimation error…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-11-18 Joseph E. Gaudio , Anuradha M. Annaswamy , Eugene Lavretsky , Michael A. Bolender

This paper provides a mixture modeling framework using the bivariate generalized exponential distribution. We study different properties of this mixture distribution. Hierarchical EM algorithm is developed for finding the estimates of the…

Computation · Statistics 2018-04-03 Arabin Kumar Dey , Debasis Kundu , Tumati Kiran Kumar

This paper establishes the almost sure convergence and asymptotic normality of levels and differenced quasi maximum-likelihood (QML) estimators of dynamic panel data models. The QML estimators are robust with respect to initial conditions,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-02-03 Robert F. Phillips

The normality assumption on data set is very restrictive approach for modelling. The generalized form of normal distribution, named as an exponential power (EP) distribution, and its scale mixture form have been considered extensively to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-07-20 Mehmet Niyazi Cankaya , Olcay Arslan

Dynamical properties of image restoration and hyper-parameter estimation are investigated by means of statistical mechanics. We introduce an exactly solvable model for image restoration and derive differential equations with respect to…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-11-07 Jun-ichi Inoue , Kazuyuki Tanaka

Estimates of the approximate factor model are increasingly used in empirical work. Their theoretical properties, studied some twenty years ago, also laid the ground work for analysis on large dimensional panel data models with cross-section…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-08-04 Jushan Bai , Serena Ng

Factor modeling is an essential tool for exploring intrinsic dependence structures among high-dimensional random variables. Much progress has been made for estimating the covariance matrix from a high-dimensional factor model. However, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-26 Quefeng Li , Guang Cheng , Jianqing Fan , Yuyan Wang

In this work, a data-driven modeling framework of switched dynamical systems under time-dependent switching is proposed. The learning technique utilized to model system dynamics is Extreme Learning Machine (ELM). First, a method is…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-01-27 Weiming Xiang

We study the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for general latent-variable models under (i) distributional misspecification and (ii) nonidentifiability induced by a group action. We formulate EM on the quotient parameter space and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-06 Koustav Mallik

In inference problems involving a multi-dimensional parameter $\theta$, it is often natural to consider decision rules that have a risk which is invariant under some group $G$ of permutations of $\theta$. We show that this implies that the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-07-01 Erik van Zwet

This paper studies methods for testing and estimating change-points in the covariance structure of a high-dimensional linear time series. The assumed framework allows for a large class of multivariate linear processes (including vector…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-14 Ansgar Steland

As is the case for many curved exponential families, the computation of maximum likelihood estimates in a multivariate normal model with a Kronecker covariance structure is typically carried out with an iterative algorithm, specifically, a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-28 Mathias Drton , Alexandros Grosdos , Andrew McCormack

Kappa distributions are widely used in space plasma physics to model velocity distribution functions with heavy tails. Parameter estimation in these distributions is, however, complicated by the fact that the kappa distribution does not…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-25 Leonardo Herrera-Fuenzalida , Sergio Davis

We give convergence guarantees for estimating the coefficients of a symmetric mixture of two linear regressions by expectation maximization (EM). In particular, we show that the empirical EM iterates converge to the target parameter vector…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-17 Jason M. Klusowski , Dana Yang , W. D. Brinda

Mixture modeling is a general technique for making any simple model more expressive through weighted combination. This generality and simplicity in part explains the success of the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm, in which updates…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-03-29 Sida I. Wang , Arun Tejasvi Chaganty , Percy Liang