Related papers: Handling model risk with XVAs
Current approaches to fair valuation in insurance often follow a two-step approach, combining quadratic hedging with application of a risk measure on the residual liability, to obtain a cost-of-capital margin. In such approaches, the…
This paper presents a convenient framework for modeling default process and pricing derivative securities involving credit risk. The framework provides an integrated view of credit valuation adjustment by linking distance-to-default,…
We examine the problem of dynamic reserving for risk in multiple currencies under a general coherent risk measure. The reserver requires to hedge risk in a time-consistent manner by trading in baskets of currencies. We show that reserving…
The popular systemic risk measure CoVaR (conditional Value-at-Risk) and its variants are widely used in economics and finance. In this article, we propose joint dynamic forecasting models for the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and CoVaR. The CoVaR…
We study the risk assessment of uncertain cash flows in terms of dynamic convex risk measures for processes as introduced in Cheridito, Delbaen, and Kupper (2006). These risk measures take into account not only the amounts but also the…
We propose Variational Heteroscedastic Volatility Model (VHVM) -- an end-to-end neural network architecture capable of modelling heteroscedastic behaviour in multivariate financial time series. VHVM leverages recent advances in several…
This study aims to widen the sphere of pratical applicability of the HAC model combined with the ARMA-APARCH volatility forecast model and the extreme values theory. A sequential process of modeling of the VaR of a portfolio based on the…
We study robust notions of good-deal hedging and valuation under combined uncertainty about the drifts and volatilities of asset prices. Good-deal bounds are determined by a subset of risk-neutral pricing measures such that not only…
We develop a framework for computing the total valuation adjustment (XVA) of a European claim accounting for funding costs, counterparty credit risk, and collateralization. Based on no-arbitrage arguments, we derive backward stochastic…
We introduce a new approach for prudent risk evaluation based on stochastic dominance, which will be called the model aggregation (MA) approach. In contrast to the classic worst-case risk (WR) approach, the MA approach produces not only a…
We address imbalanced classification, the problem in which a label may have low marginal probability relative to other labels, by weighting losses according to the correct class. First, we examine the convergence rates of the expected…
General wrong way risk (WWR) estimation is necessary for regulatory CVA capital and useful for pricing CVA and FVA. We introduce a model independent method for calculating WWR and update the definition of WWR to deal with the lack of…
Affine Diffusion dynamics are frequently used for Valuation Adjustments (xVA) calculations due to their analytic tractability. However, these models cannot capture the market-implied skew and smile, which are relevant when computing xVA…
We consider stochastic volatility dynamics driven by a general H\"older continuous Volterra-type noise and with unbounded drift. For these so-called SVV-models, we consider the explicit computation of quadratic hedging strategies. While the…
A new methodology has been introduced to clean the correlation matrix of single stocks returns based on a constrained principal component analysis using financial data. Portfolios were introduced, namely "Fundamental Maximum Variance…
This paper investigates optimal withdrawal strategies and behavior of policyholders in a variable annuity (VA) contract with a guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefit (GMWB) rider incorporating taxation and a ratchet mechanism for enhancing…
We consider the problem of computing the Credit Value Adjustment ({CVA}) of a European option in presence of the Wrong Way Risk ({WWR}) in a default intensity setting. Namely we model the asset price evolution as solution to a linear…
This paper studies the stochastic modeling of market drawdown events and the fair valuation of insurance contracts based on drawdowns. We model the asset drawdown process as the current relative distance from the historical maximum of the…
This paper presents a new method to assess default risk based on applying the CEV process to the KMV model. We find that the volatility of the firm asset value may not be a constant, so we assume the firm's asset value dynamics are given by…
Successful forecasting models strike a balance between parsimony and flexibility. This is often achieved by employing suitable shrinkage priors that penalize model complexity but also reward model fit. In this note, we modify the stochastic…