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A new method for estimating tropical cyclone track uncertainty is presented and tested. This method uses a neural network to predict a bivariate normal distribution, which serves as an estimate for track uncertainty. We train the network…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-03-14 M. A. Fernandez , Elizabeth A. Barnes , Randal J. Barnes , Mark DeMaria , Marie McGraw , Galina Chirokova , Lixin Lu

Transients are fundamental to ecological systems with significant implications to management, conservation, and biological control. We uncover a type of transient synchronization behavior in spatial ecological networks whose local dynamics…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-11-24 Huawei Fan , Ling-Wei Kong , Xingang Wang , Alan Hastings , Ying-Cheng Lai

Cascading failures triggered by trivial initial events are encountered in many complex systems. It is the interaction and coupling between components of the system that causes cascading failures. We propose a simple model to simulate…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-01-07 Junjian Qi , Shengwei Mei

Extreme weather events pose significant challenges, thereby demanding techniques for accurate analysis and precise forecasting to mitigate its impact. In recent years, deep learning techniques have emerged as a promising approach for…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-08-23 Shikha Verma , Kuldeep Srivastava , Akhilesh Tiwari , Shekhar Verma

Many natural, engineered, and social systems can be represented using the framework of a layered network, where each layer captures a different type of interaction between the same set of nodes. The study of such multiplex networks is a…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-05-12 Haochen Wu , Ryan G. James , James P. Crutchfield , Raissa M. D'Souza

Estimating causal interactions in complex dynamical systems is an important problem encountered in many fields of current science. While a theoretical solution for detecting the causal interactions has been previously formulated in the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-01-20 Jakub Kořenek , Jaroslav Hlinka

From transportation networks to complex infrastructures, and to social and communication networks, a large variety of systems can be described in terms of multiplexes formed by a set of nodes interacting through different networks (layers).…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-16 Davide Cellai , Eduardo López , Jie Zhou , James P. Gleeson , Ginestra Bianconi

Real-world systems in epidemiology, social sciences, power transportation, economics and engineering are often described as multilayer networks. Here we first define and compute the symmetries of multilayer networks, and then study the…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2020-07-29 F. Della Rossa , L. Pecora , K. Blaha , A. Shirin , I. Klickstein , F. Sorrentino

The abundance of data affords researchers to pursue more powerful computational tools to learn the dynamics of complex system, such as neural networks, engineered systems and social networks. Traditional machine learning approaches capture…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-16 Yan Shen , Fan Yang , Mingchen Gao , Wen Dong

In a complex system, the interactions between individual agents often lead to emergent collective behavior like spontaneous synchronization, swarming, and pattern formation. The topology of the network of interactions can have a dramatic…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2022-07-25 Mark J Panaggio , Maria-Veronica Ciocanel , Lauren Lazarus , Chad M Topaz , Bin Xu

The complexity of many biological, social and technological systems stems from the richness of the interactions among their units. Over the past decades, a great variety of complex systems has been successfully described as networks whose…

This article studies the synchronization problem of complex dynamical networks. The impulsive control method is considered with a novel event-triggered pinning algorithm. Sufficient conditions on the network topology are obtained to ensure…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-02-29 Kexue Zhang

The temporal changes in complex systems of interactions have excited the research community in recent years as they encompass understandings on their dynamics and evolution. From the collective dynamics of organizations and online…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-04-15 Hadar Miller , Osnat Mokryn

In this paper we discuss and address the challenges of predicting extreme atmospheric events like intense rainfall, hail, and strong winds. These events can cause significant damage and have become more frequent due to climate change.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-10-06 Mikhail Mozikov , Ilya Makarov , Alexandr Bulkin , Daria Taniushkina , Roland Grinis , Yury Maximov

Machine learning (ML)-based models have demonstrated high skill and computational efficiency, often outperforming conventional physics-based models in weather and subseasonal predictions. While prior studies have assessed their fidelity in…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-02-13 Ziming Chen , L. Ruby Leung , Wenyu Zhou , Jian Lu , Sandro W. Lubis , Ye Liu , Chuan-Chieh Chang , Bryce E. Harrop , Ya Wang , Mingshi Yang , Gan Zhang , Yun Qian

Understanding the causes and consequences of, and devising countermeasures to, global warming is a profoundly complex problem. Network representations are sometimes the only way forward, and sometimes able to reduce the complexity of the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-05-30 Petter Holme , Juan C. Rocha

This paper deals with dynamic networks in which the causality relations between the vertex signals are represented by linear time-invariant transfer functions (modules). Considering an acyclic network where only a subset of its vertices are…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-04-08 Xiaodong Cheng , Shengling Shi , Ioannis Lestas , Paul M. J. Van den Hof

The Maximum Betweenness Centrality problem (MBC) can be defined as follows. Given a graph find a $k$-element node set $C$ that maximizes the probability of detecting communication between a pair of nodes $s$ and $t$ chosen uniformly at…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2010-08-23 Martin Fink , Joachim Spoerhase

A reflection of our ultimate understanding of a complex system is our ability to control its behavior. Typically, control has multiple prerequisites: It requires an accurate map of the network that governs the interactions between the…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-09-21 Yang-Yu Liu , Albert-Laszló Barabási

The successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from 2010 July 30 - August 1 present us the first opportunity to study CME-CME interactions with unprecedented heliospheric imaging and in situ observations from multiple vantage points. We…