Related papers: Bayesian Reasoning in Eternal Inflation: A Solutio…
Eternally inflating universes can contain large thermalized regions with different values of the constants of Nature and with different density fluctuation spectra. To find the probability for a `typical' observer to detect a certain set of…
We show that the geometry of cutoffs on eternal inflation strongly constrains predictions for the timescales of vacuum domination, curvature domination, and observation. We consider three measure proposals: the causal patch, the fat…
Eternal inflation predicts our observable universe lies within a bubble (or pocket universe) embedded in a volume of inflating space. The interior of the bubble undergoes inflation and standard cosmology, while the bubble walls expand…
I summarize the arguments that strongly suggest that our universe is the product of inflation. The mechanisms that lead to eternal inflation in both new and chaotic models are described. Although the infinity of pocket universes produced by…
The no-boundary wave function (NBWF) specifies a measure for prediction in cosmology that selects inflationary histories and remains well behaved for spatially large or infinite universes. This paper explores the predictions of the NBWF for…
We develop a novel data-driven approach to the inverse problem of classical statistical mechanics: given experimental data on the collective motion of a classical many-body system, how does one characterise the free energy landscape of that…
There has been much recent discussion, and some confusion, regarding the use of existing observational data to estimate the likelihood that next-generation cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization experiments might detect a nonzero…
We present the first calculation of the Bayesian evidence for different prototypical single field inflationary scenarios, including representative classes of small field and large field models. This approach allows us to compare…
Despite the dominant role of deep models in machine learning, limitations persist, including overconfident predictions, susceptibility to adversarial attacks, and underestimation of variability in predictions. The Bayesian paradigm provides…
Computer experiments are becoming increasingly important in scientific investigations. In the presence of uncertainty, analysts employ probabilistic sensitivity methods to identify the key-drivers of change in the quantities of interest.…
We present a computational framework for estimating the uncertainty in the numerical solution of linearized infinite-dimensional statistical inverse problems. We adopt the Bayesian inference formulation: given observational data and their…
We present and discuss a new approach increasing by orders of magnitude the speed of performing Bayesian inference and parameter estimation within the framework of slow-roll inflation. The method relies on the determination of an effective…
In generic models of cosmological inflation, quantum fluctuations strongly influence the spacetime metric and produce infinitely many regions where the end of inflation (reheating) is delayed until arbitrarily late times. The geometry of…
Bayesian inference --- although becoming popular in physics and chemistry --- is hampered up to now by the vagueness of its notion of prior probability. Some of its supporters argue that this vagueness is the unavoidable consequence of the…
We prove that the light-cone time cut-off on the multiverse defines the same probabilities as a causal patch with initial conditions in the longest-lived metastable vacuum. This establishes the complete equivalence of two measures of…
When humans infer underlying probabilities from stochastic observations, they exhibit biases and variability that cannot be explained on the basis of sound, Bayesian manipulations of probability. This is especially salient when beliefs are…
The pre-big bang scenario describes the evolution of the Universe from an initial state approaching the flat, cold, empty, string perturbative vacuum. The choice of such an initial state is suggested by the present state of our Universe if…
In a previous paper \cite{MakingPredictions}, a method of comparing the volumes of thermalized regions in eternally inflating universe was introduced. In this paper, we investigate the dependence of the results obtained through that method…
Bayesian inference requires specification of a single, precise prior distribution, whereas frequentist inference only accommodates a vacuous prior. Since virtually every real-world application falls somewhere in between these two extremes,…
In the context of eternal inflation, cosmological predictions depend on the choice of measure to regulate the diverging spacetime volume. The spectrum of inflationary perturbations is no exception, as we demonstrate by comparing the…