Related papers: Global Extreme Heat Forecasting Using Neural Weath…
Because of the impact of extreme heat waves and heat domes on society and biodiversity, their study is a key challenge. We specifically study long-lasting extreme heat waves, which are among the most important for climate impacts. Physics…
Understanding extreme events and their probability is key for the study of climate change impacts, risk assessment, adaptation, and the protection of living beings. Forecasting the occurrence probability of extreme heatwaves is a primary…
The unusually warm sea surface temperature events known as marine heatwaves (MHWs) have a profound impact on marine ecosystems. Accurate prediction of extreme MHWs has significant scientific and financial worth. However, existing methods…
Issuing timely severe weather warnings helps mitigate potentially disastrous consequences. Recent advancements in Neural Weather Models (NWMs) offer a computationally inexpensive and fast approach for forecasting atmospheric environments on…
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models that integrate coupled physical equations forward in time are the traditional tools for simulating atmospheric processes and forecasting weather. With recent advancements in deep learning, AI-based…
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models require ever-growing computing time/resources, but still, have difficulties with predicting weather extremes. Here we introduce a data-driven framework that is based on analog forecasting…
Extreme heat is the deadliest weather-related hazard in the United States. Furthermore, it is increasing in intensity, frequency, and duration, making skillful forecasts vital to protecting life and property. Traditional numerical weather…
Marine heatwaves (MHWs), an extreme climate phenomenon, pose significant challenges to marine ecosystems and industries, with their frequency and intensity increasing due to climate change. This study introduces an integrated deep learning…
The application of large deep learning models in weather forecasting has led to significant advancements in the field, including higher-resolution forecasting and extended prediction periods exemplified by models such as Pangu and Fuxi.…
We present an ensemble prediction system using a Deep Learning Weather Prediction (DLWP) model that recursively predicts key atmospheric variables with six-hour time resolution. This model uses convolutional neural networks (CNNs) on a…
Heatwaves, prolonged periods of extreme heat, have intensified in frequency and severity due to climate change, posing substantial risks to public health, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Despite advancements in Machine Learning (ML)…
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are extreme ocean-temperature events with significant impacts on marine ecosystems and related industries. Accurate forecasts (one to six months ahead) of MHWs would aid in mitigating these impacts. However,…
Multiple studies have now demonstrated that machine learning (ML) can give improved skill for predicting or simulating fairly typical weather events, for tasks such as short-term and seasonal weather forecasting, downscaling simulations to…
Weather extremes are a major societal and economic hazard, claiming thousands of lives and causing billions of dollars in damage every year. Under climate change, their impact and intensity are expected to worsen significantly.…
Global artificial intelligence (AI) models are rapidly advancing and beginning to outperform traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models across metrics, yet predicting regional extreme weather such as tropical cyclone (TC)…
AI-based weather and climate models are emerging as accurate and computationally efficient tools. Beyond weather forecasting, they also show promise to accelerate storyline analyses. We evaluate NeuralGCM's ability to simulate an extreme…
We present a data-driven approach for forecasting global weather using graph neural networks. The system learns to step forward the current 3D atmospheric state by six hours, and multiple steps are chained together to produce skillful…
The success of deep learning techniques over the last decades has opened up a new avenue of research for weather forecasting. Here, we take the novel approach of using a neural network to predict full probability density functions at each…
Due to the rapidly changing climate, the frequency and severity of extreme weather is expected to increase over the coming decades. As fully-resolved climate simulations remain computationally intractable, policy makers must rely on…
Heatwaves are intensifying worldwide and are among the deadliest weather disasters. The burden falls disproportionately on marginalized populations and the Global South, where under-resourced health systems, exposure to urban heat islands,…