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The fundamental challenge of drawing causal inference is that counterfactual outcomes are not fully observed for any unit. Furthermore, in observational studies, treatment assignment is likely to be confounded. Many statistical methods have…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-01 Harsh Parikh , Carlos Varjao , Louise Xu , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Causal inference with observational data can be performed under an assumption of no unobserved confounders (unconfoundedness assumption). There is, however, seldom clear subject-matter or empirical evidence for such an assumption. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-13 Minna Genbäck , Xavier de Luna

Causal inference in observational studies can be challenging when confounders are subject to missingness. Generally, the identification of causal effects is not guaranteed even under restrictive parametric model assumptions when confounders…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-23 Jian Sun , Bo Fu

We propose a novel deep learning approach to nonparametric statistical inference for the conditional hazard function of survival time with right-censored data. We use a deep neural network (DNN) to approximate the logarithm of a conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-24 Wen Su , Kin-Yat Liu , Guosheng Yin , Jian Huang , Xingqiu Zhao

Evaluation of treatment effects and more general estimands is typically achieved via parametric modelling, which is unsatisfactory since model misspecification is likely. Data-adaptive model building (e.g. statistical/machine learning) is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-01-14 Oliver Hines , Oliver Dukes , Karla Diaz-Ordaz , Stijn Vansteelandt

The ability to learn disentangled representations that split underlying sources of variation in high dimensional, unstructured data is important for data efficient and robust use of neural networks. While various approaches aiming towards…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-15 Raphael Suter , Đorđe Miladinović , Bernhard Schölkopf , Stefan Bauer

Unmeasured confounding is a fundamental obstacle to causal inference from observational data. Latent-variable methods address this challenge by imputing unobserved confounders, yet many lack explicit model-based identification guarantees…

Computation · Statistics 2026-03-03 Yaxin Fang , Faming Liang

Selective inference (post-selection inference) is a methodology that has attracted much attention in recent years in the fields of statistics and machine learning. Naive inference based on data that are also used for model selection tends…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-25 Yoshiyuki Ninomiya , Yuta Umezu , Ichiro Takeuchi

The accurate representation of epistemic uncertainty is a challenging yet essential task in machine learning. A widely used representation corresponds to convex sets of probabilistic predictors, also known as credal sets. One popular way of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Mira Jürgens , Thomas Mortier , Eyke Hüllermeier , Viktor Bengs , Willem Waegeman

Modern deep neural networks are well known to be brittle in the face of unknown data instances and recognition of the latter remains a challenge. Although it is inevitable for continual-learning systems to encounter such unseen concepts,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-04 Martin Mundt , Iuliia Pliushch , Sagnik Majumder , Yongwon Hong , Visvanathan Ramesh

Estimating long-term causal effects by combining long-term observational and short-term experimental data is a crucial but challenging problem in many real-world scenarios. In existing methods, several ideal assumptions, e.g. latent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-12 Ruichu Cai , Junjie Wan , Weilin Chen , Zeqin Yang , Zijian Li , Peng Zhen , Jiecheng Guo

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) approach to causal inference using observational data consisting of outcome, treatment, and a set of confounders. The conditional distribution of the outcome given treatment and confounders is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Yongseok Hur , Joonhyuk Jung , Juhee Lee

We propose a method to distinguish causal influence from hidden confounding in the following scenario: given a target variable Y, potential causal drivers X, and a large number of background features, we propose a novel criterion for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-07 You-Lin Chen , Lenon Minorics , Dominik Janzing

Popular debiased estimation methods for causal inference -- such as augmented inverse propensity weighting and targeted maximum likelihood estimation -- enjoy desirable asymptotic properties like statistical efficiency and double robustness…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-16 Tiffany Tianhui Cai , Yuri Fonseca , Kaiwen Hou , Hongseok Namkoong

Many causal estimands are only partially identifiable since they depend on the unobservable joint distribution between potential outcomes. Stratification on pretreatment covariates can yield sharper bounds; however, unless the covariates…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-19 Wenlong Ji , Lihua Lei , Asher Spector

Deep learning-based models have demonstrated remarkable success in solving illposed inverse problems; however, many fail to strictly adhere to the physical constraints imposed by the measurement process. In this work, we introduce a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Jorge Bacca

Likelihood-free inference refers to inference when a likelihood function cannot be explicitly evaluated, which is often the case for models based on simulators. Most of the literature is based on sample-based `Approximate Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-22 Conor Durkan , George Papamakarios , Iain Murray

Causal inference necessarily relies upon untestable assumptions; hence, it is crucial to assess the robustness of obtained results to violations of identification assumptions. However, such sensitivity analysis is only occasionally…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-19 Tobias Freidling , Qingyuan Zhao

We develop a novel method for personalized off-policy learning in scenarios with unobserved confounding. Thereby, we address a key limitation of standard policy learning: standard policy learning assumes unconfoundedness, meaning that no…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-18 Konstantin Hess , Dennis Frauen , Valentyn Melnychuk , Stefan Feuerriegel

Proximal causal inference (PCI) is a recently proposed framework to identify and estimate the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome in the presence of hidden confounders, using observed proxies. Specifically, PCI relies on two types of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-29 Prabrisha Rakshit , Xu Shi , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen
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