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Deep neural networks with millions of parameters may suffer from poor generalization due to overfitting. To mitigate the issue, we propose a new regularization method that penalizes the predictive distribution between similar samples. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-08 Sukmin Yun , Jongjin Park , Kimin Lee , Jinwoo Shin

In this work we aim to obtain computationally-efficient uncertainty estimates with deep networks. For this, we propose a modified knowledge distillation procedure that achieves state-of-the-art uncertainty estimates both for in and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-14 Erik Englesson , Hossein Azizpour

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown remarkable performance in the healthcare domain. However, what remained challenging is quantifying the predictive uncertainty of GNNs, which is an important aspect of trustworthiness in clinical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-28 Hirad Daneshvar , Reza Samavi

Uncertainty quantification is a critical aspect of reinforcement learning and deep learning, with numerous applications ranging from efficient exploration and stable offline reinforcement learning to outlier detection in medical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-27 Moritz A. Zanger , Pascal R. Van der Vaart , Wendelin Böhmer , Matthijs T. J. Spaan

Ensembles of neural networks have been shown to give better performance than single networks, both in terms of predictions and uncertainty estimation. Additionally, ensembles allow the uncertainty to be decomposed into aleatoric (data) and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-11 Jakob Lindqvist , Amanda Olmin , Fredrik Lindsten , Lennart Svensson

Convolutional neural networks have been achieving the best possible accuracies in many visual pattern classification problems. However, due to the model capacity required to capture such representations, they are often oversensitive to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-01-27 Yahia Assiri

Calibrated estimates of uncertainty are critical for many real-world computer vision applications of deep learning. While there are several widely-used uncertainty estimation methods, dropout inference stands out for its simplicity and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-11-09 Yichen Shen , Zhilu Zhang , Mert R. Sabuncu , Lin Sun

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) have dominated language modeling because of their superior performance over traditional N-gram based models. In many applications, a large Recurrent Neural Network language model (RNNLM) or an ensemble of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2019-04-09 Yangyang Shi , Mei-Yuh Hwang , Xin Lei , Haoyu Sheng

Uncertainty quantification is crucial for building reliable and trustable machine learning systems. We propose to estimate uncertainty in recurrent neural networks (RNNs) via stochastic discrete state transitions over recurrent timesteps.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Cheng Wang , Carolin Lawrence , Mathias Niepert

Deep learning is increasingly being applied in safety-critical domains. For these scenarios it is important to know the level of uncertainty in a model's prediction to ensure appropriate decisions are made by the system. Deep ensembles are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-17 Yassir Fathullah , Mark J. F. Gales

Knowledge distillation is one of the most popular and effective techniques for knowledge transfer, model compression and semi-supervised learning. Most existing distillation approaches require the access to original or augmented training…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-11 Liangchen Luo , Mark Sandler , Zi Lin , Andrey Zhmoginov , Andrew Howard

A very simple way to improve the performance of almost any machine learning algorithm is to train many different models on the same data and then to average their predictions. Unfortunately, making predictions using a whole ensemble of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-03-10 Geoffrey Hinton , Oriol Vinyals , Jeff Dean

Recent work has focused on data-driven learning of the evolution of unknown systems via deep neural networks (DNNs), with the goal of conducting long time prediction of the evolution of the unknown system. Training a DNN with low…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-28 Victor Churchill , Steve Manns , Zhen Chen , Dongbin Xiu

Knowledge transfer between artificial neural networks has become an important topic in deep learning. Among the open questions are what kind of knowledge needs to be preserved for the transfer, and how it can be effectively achieved.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-10-03 Vladimir Li , Atsuto Maki

Modern neural networks do not always produce well-calibrated predictions, even when trained with a proper scoring function such as cross-entropy. In classification settings, simple methods such as isotonic regression or temperature scaling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-26 Steven Reich , David Mueller , Nicholas Andrews

Bayesian neural networks (BNN) and deep ensembles are principled approaches to estimate the predictive uncertainty of a deep learning model. However their practicality in real-time, industrial-scale applications are limited due to their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-27 Jeremiah Zhe Liu , Zi Lin , Shreyas Padhy , Dustin Tran , Tania Bedrax-Weiss , Balaji Lakshminarayanan

Uncertainty estimation is critical for reliable medical image segmentation, particularly in retinal vessel analysis, where accurate predictions are essential for diagnostic applications. Deep Ensembles, where multiple networks are trained…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-09-16 Jeremiah Fadugba , Petru Manescu , Bolanle Oladejo , Delmiro Fernandez-Reyes , Philipp Berens

In this work, we demonstrate how to reliably estimate epistemic uncertainty while maintaining the flexibility needed to capture complicated aleatoric distributions. To this end, we propose an ensemble of Normalizing Flows (NF), which are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-05 Lucas Berry , David Meger

Ensembles of models often yield improvements in system performance. These ensemble approaches have also been empirically shown to yield robust measures of uncertainty, and are capable of distinguishing between different \emph{forms} of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-27 Andrey Malinin , Bruno Mlodozeniec , Mark Gales

Top-performing machine learning systems, such as deep neural networks, large ensembles and complex probabilistic graphical models, can be expensive to store, slow to evaluate and hard to integrate into larger systems. Ideally, we would like…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-10-09 George Papamakarios
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