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Causal inference has gained much popularity in recent years, with interests ranging from academic, to industrial, to educational, and all in between. Concurrently, the study and usage of neural networks has also grown profoundly (albeit at…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-07 Demetrios Papakostas , Andrew Herren , P. Richard Hahn , Francisco Castillo

Learning about the causal structure of the world is a fundamental problem for human cognition. Causal models and especially causal learning have proved to be difficult for large pretrained models using standard techniques of deep learning.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-16 Eunice Yiu , Kelsey Allen , Shiry Ginosar , Alison Gopnik

In order to speed-up classification models when facing a large number of categories, one usual approach consists in organizing the categories in a particular structure, this structure being then used as a way to speed-up the prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-11-26 Aurélia Léon , Ludovic Denoyer

Inferring the causal structure of a system typically requires interventional data, rather than just observational data. Since interventional experiments can be costly, it is preferable to select interventions that yield the maximum amount…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-30 Michele Zemplenyi , Jeffrey W. Miller

In this paper, the relationship between probabilistic graphical models, in particular Bayesian networks, and causal diagrams, also called structural causal models, is studied. Structural causal models are deterministic models, based on…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-24 Peter J. F. Lucas , Eleonora Zullo , Fabio Stella

The standard approach to answering an identifiable causal-effect query (e.g., $P(Y|do(X)$) when given a causal diagram and observational data is to first generate an estimand, or probabilistic expression over the observable variables, which…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-08-28 Anna Raichev , Alexander Ihler , Jin Tian , Rina Dechter

Average and conditional treatment effects are fundamental causal quantities used to evaluate the effectiveness of treatments in various critical applications, including clinical settings and policy-making. Beyond the gold-standard…

Bayesian Decision Trees are known for their probabilistic interpretability. However, their construction can sometimes be costly. In this article we present a general Bayesian Decision Tree algorithm applicable to both regression and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-23 Giuseppe Nuti , Lluís Antoni Jiménez Rugama , Andreea-Ingrid Cross

There is currently a dearth of appropriate methods to estimate the causal effects of multiple treatments when the outcome is binary. For such settings, we propose the use of nonparametric Bayesian modeling, Bayesian Additive Regression…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-02 Chenyang Gu , Michael J. Lopez , Liangyuan Hu

We present a method for incorporating missing data in non-parametric statistical learning without the need for imputation. We focus on a tree-based method, Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART), enhanced with "Missingness Incorporated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-02-14 Adam Kapelner , Justin Bleich

Uplift modeling is crucial in various applications ranging from marketing and policy-making to personalized recommendations. The main objective is to learn optimal treatment allocations for a heterogeneous population. A primary line of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-20 Preetam Nandy , Xiufan Yu , Wanjun Liu , Ye Tu , Kinjal Basu , Shaunak Chatterjee

Eliciting preferences from human judgements is inherently imprecise, yet most decision analysis methods force a single priority vector from pairwise comparisons, discarding the information embedded in inconsistencies. We instead leverage…

General Economics · Economics 2026-02-27 Salvatore Greco , Sajid Siraj , Michele Lundy

Causal discovery is a fundamental problem with applications spanning various areas in science and engineering. It is well understood that solely using observational data, one can only orient the causal graph up to its Markov equivalence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Zihan Zhou , Muhammad Qasim Elahi , Murat Kocaoglu

Causal Bayesian networks have become a powerful technology for reasoning under uncertainty in areas that require transparency and explainability, by relying on causal assumptions that enable us to simulate hypothetical interventions. The…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-03-14 Anthony C. Constantinou , Zhigao Guo , Neville K. Kitson

Tree-based ensemble methods such as random forests, gradient-boosted trees, and Bayesianadditive regression trees have been successfully used for regression problems in many applicationsand research studies. In this paper, we study ensemble…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-21 Alexandre Seiller , Éric Gaussier , Emilie Devijver , Marianne Clausel , Sami Alkhoury

In this paper, we propose the use of causal inference techniques for survival function estimation and prediction for subgroups of the data, upto individual units. Tree ensemble methods, specifically random forests were modified for this…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-03-23 Vikas Ramachandra

Causal effect estimation aims at estimating the Average Treatment Effect as well as the Conditional Average Treatment Effect of a treatment to an outcome from the available data. This knowledge is important in many safety-critical domains,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-02 Niki Kiriakidou , Ioannis E. Livieris , Christos Diou

This tutorial provides a concise introduction to modern causal modeling by integrating potential outcomes and graphical methods. We motivate causal questions such as counterfactual reasoning under interventions and define binary treatments…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-27 Gauranga Kumar Baishya

This paper describes a Bayesian method for learning causal networks using samples that were selected in a non-random manner from a population of interest. Examples of data obtained by non-random sampling include convenience samples and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-18 Gregory F. Cooper

We present an algorithm for learning decision trees using stochastic gradient information as the source of supervision. In contrast to previous approaches to gradient-based tree learning, our method operates in the incremental learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-25 Henry Gouk , Bernhard Pfahringer , Eibe Frank