Related papers: Sampling-Based Verification of CTMCs with Uncertai…
Every probability distribution can be approximated up to a given precision by a phase-type distribution, i.e. a distribution encoded by a continuous time Markov chain (CTMC). However, an excessive number of states in the corresponding CTMC…
Bond rating Transition Probability Matrices (TPMs) are built over a one-year time-frame and for many practical purposes, like the assessment of risk in portfolios or the computation of banking Capital Requirements (e.g. the new IFRS 9…
Conformal prediction methodologies have significantly advanced the quantification of uncertainties in predictive models. Yet, the construction of confidence regions for model parameters presents a notable challenge, often necessitating…
In this paper we propose augmented interval Markov chains (AIMCs): a generalisation of the familiar interval Markov chains (IMCs) where uncertain transition probabilities are in addition allowed to depend on one another. This new model…
Segmenting images of low quality or with missing data is a challenging problem. Integrating statistical prior information about the shapes to be segmented can improve the segmentation results significantly. Most shape-based segmentation…
Branching processes are a class of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) with ubiquitous applications. A general difficulty in statistical inference under partially observed CTMC models arises in computing transition probabilities when the…
Continuous-time Markov chains are mathematical models that are used to describe the state-evolution of dynamical systems under stochastic uncertainty, and have found widespread applications in various fields. In order to make these models…
Sampling is a fundamental problem in computer science and statistics. However, for a given task and stream, it is often not possible to choose good sampling probabilities in advance. We derive a general framework for adaptively changing the…
Many problems of practical interest rely on Continuous-time Markov chains~(CTMCs) defined over combinatorial state spaces, rendering the computation of transition probabilities, and hence probabilistic inference, difficult or impossible…
We present a novel method for computing reachability probabilities of parametric discrete-time Markov chains whose transition probabilities are fractions of polynomials over a set of parameters. Our algorithm is based on two key…
Inference for continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) becomes challenging when the process is only observed at discrete time points. The exact likelihood is intractable, and existing methods often struggle even in medium-dimensional…
Reliable uncertainty quantification is essential for deploying machine learning systems in high-stakes domains. Conformal prediction provides distribution-free coverage guarantees but often produces overly large prediction sets, limiting…
Sampling-based motion planning techniques have emerged as an efficient algorithmic paradigm for solving complex motion planning problems. These approaches use a set of probing samples to construct an implicit graph representation of the…
Analyses of serially-sampled data often begin with the assumption that the observations represent discrete samples from a latent continuous-time stochastic process. The continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) is one such generative model whose…
Statistical model checking (SMC) is a technique for analysis of probabilistic systems that may be (partially) unknown. We present an SMC algorithm for (unbounded) reachability yielding probably approximately correct (PAC) guarantees on the…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are routinely used to draw samples from distributions with intractable normalization constants. However, standard MCMC algorithms do not apply to doubly-intractable distributions in which there are…
This article presents the complexity of reachability decision problems for parametric Markov decision processes (pMDPs), an extension to Markov decision processes (MDPs) where transitions probabilities are described by polynomials over a…
Sampling-based model predictive control (MPC) algorithms, such as model predictive path integral (MPPI), enable approximate, gradient-free solutions to optimal control problems by drawing samples from a proposal distribution, evaluating…
In the following article we consider approximate Bayesian parameter inference for observation driven time series models. Such statistical models appear in a wide variety of applications, including econometrics and applied mathematics. This…
Recent decision-making systems are increasingly complicated, making it crucial to verify and understand their behavior for a given specification. A promising approach is to comprehensively explain undesired behavior in the systems modeled…