Related papers: Is climate change time reversible?
Starting from a classical Budyko-Sellers-Ghil energy balance model for the average surface temperature of the Earth, a nonautonomous version is designed by allowing the solar irradiance and the cloud cover coefficients to vary with time in…
Nonlinear regression is a useful statistical tool, relating observed data and a nonlinear function of unknown parameters. When the parameter-dependent nonlinear function is computationally intensive, a straightforward regression analysis by…
The dynamics of time-reversible systems are statistically indistinguishable when observed forward or backward in time. A rich literature of statistical methods to distinguish irreversible dynamics from the reversible dynamics of linear,…
Previous studies showed that hydro-climate processes are stochastic and complex systems, and it is difficult to discover the hidden patterns in the all non-stationary data and thoroughly understand the hydro-climate relationships. For the…
There is a relation between the irreversibility of thermodynamic processes as expressed by the breaking of time-reversal symmetry, and the entropy production in such processes. We explain on an elementary mathematical level the relations…
It is well-established that human activity is driving extreme weather patterns, and that these extreme events influence human behaviour. However, few models allow for human behaviours and the climate to dynamically interact. The models…
The question of thermalisation in closed quantum many-body systems has received a lot of attention in the past few years. An intimately related question is whether a closed quantum system shows irreversible dynamics. However,…
Social tipping points are promising levers to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emission targets. They describe how social, political, economic or technological systems can move rapidly into a new state if cascading positive feedback…
Abrupt and irreversible winter Arctic sea-ice loss may occur under anthropogenic warming due to the collapse of a sea-ice equilibrium at a threshold value of CO$_2$, commonly referred to as a tipping point. Previous work has been unable to…
Climate models exhibit an approximately invariant surface warming pattern in typical end-of-century projections. This observation has been used extensively in climate impact assessments for fast calculations of local temperature anomalies,…
Active matter encompasses systems whose individual consituents dissipate energy to exert propelling forces on their environment. This rapidly developing field harbors a dynamical phenomenology with no counterpart in passive systems. The…
A comprehensive understanding of the behaviours of the various geophysical processes and an effective evaluation of time series (else referred to as "stochastic") simulation models require, among others, detailed investigations across…
Tipping points associated with bifurcations (B-tipping) or induced by noise (N-tipping) are recognized mechanisms that may potentially lead to sudden climate change. We focus here a novel class of tipping points, where a sufficiently rapid…
We introduce a method for decomposition of trend, cycle and seasonal components in spatio-temporal models and apply it to investigate the existence of climate changes in temperature and rainfall series. The method incorporates critical…
Several environmental tipping points and self-reinforcing feedback loops are still disregarded within the frequently used climate models. Thus, existing climate models are not very representative for providing projections of the conditions…
Time-reversal had always been assumed to be a symmetry of physics at the fundamental level. In this paper we will explore the violations of time-reversal symmetry at the fundamental level and the consequences on thermodynamic systems.…
Stips, Macias, Coughlan, Garcia-Gorriz, and Liang (2016, Nature Scientific Reports) use information flows (Liang, 2008, 2014) to establish causality from various forcings to global temperature. We show that the formulas being used hinges on…
The potential for complex systems to exhibit tipping points in which an equilibrium state undergoes a sudden and often irreversible shift is well established, but prediction of these events using standard forecast modeling techniques is…
The issue of how time reversible microscopic dynamics gives rise to macroscopic irreversible processes has been a recurrent issue in Physics since the time of Boltzmann whose ideas shaped, and essentially resolved, such an apparent…
Time series classification has received great attention over the past decade with a wide range of methods focusing on predictive performance by exploiting various types of temporal features. Nonetheless, little emphasis has been placed on…