Related papers: Football Group Draw Probabilities and Corrections
We introduce the concept of compactly representing a large number of state sequences, e.g., sequences of activities, as a flow diagram. We argue that the flow diagram representation gives an intuitive summary that allows the user to detect…
In many situations it could be interesting to ascertain whether nonparametric regression curves can be grouped, especially when confronted with a considerable number of curves. The proposed testing procedure allows to determine groups with…
Soccer attracts the attention of many researchers and professionals in the sports industry. Therefore, the incorporation of science into the sport is constantly growing, with increasing investments in performance analysis and sports…
As the most popular sport around the globe, the game of football has recently intrigued much research interest to explore and distill useful and appealing information from the sport. Network science and graph-centric methods have been…
Predicting the results of sport matches and competitions is an arising research field, benefiting from the growing amount of available data and the novel data analytics techniques. Excellent forecasts can be achieved by advanced machine…
In this work, we revisit the problem of uniformity testing of discrete probability distributions. A fundamental problem in distribution testing, testing uniformity over a known domain has been addressed over a significant line of works, and…
Is it possible to have a unique, recognizable style in soccer nowadays? We address this question by proposing a method to quantify the motif characteristics of soccer teams based on their pass networks. We introduce the the concept of "flow…
In the run-up to any major sports tournament, winning probabilities of participants are publicized for engagement and betting purposes. These are generally based on simulating the tournament tens of thousands of times by sampling from…
Foundational work on the Lottery Ticket Hypothesis has suggested an exciting corollary: winning tickets found in the context of one task can be transferred to similar tasks, possibly even across different architectures. This has generated…
The sequence of moves in a dynamic team tournament may distort the ex-ante winning probabilities and harm efficiency. This paper compares seven soccer penalty shootout rules that determine the kicking order, from a theoretical perspective.…
This paper investigates the fairness of the 2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying competition via Monte Carlo simulations. The qualifying probabilities are calculated for 102 nations, all teams except for African and European countries. A method…
We study in this paper a generalized coupon collector problem, which consists in analyzing the time needed to collect a given number of distinct coupons that are drawn from a set of coupons with an arbitrary probability distribution. We…
In this work we develop an innovative hierarchical clustering method to divide a sample of undirected weighted networks into groups. The methodology consists of two phases: the first phase is aimed at putting the single networks in a…
The goal of the classic football-pool problem is to determine how many lottery tickets are to be bought in order to guarantee at least $n-r$ correct guesses out of a sequence of $n$ games played. We study a generalized (second-order)…
Complex systems, ranging from soft materials to wireless communication, are often organised as random geometric networks in which nodes and edges evenly fill up the volume of some space. Studying such networks is difficult because they…
This paper develops a clustering algorithm for formations in team sports, with a focus on football games. Our method first clusters formations into several average formations: `442,' `4141,' `433,' `541,' and `343.' Then, each average…
The generation of random graphs using edge swaps provides a reliable method to draw uniformly random samples of sets of graphs respecting some simple constraints, e.g. degree distributions. However, in general, it is not necessarily…
We consider an urn model with multiple drawing and random time-dependent addition matrix. The model is very general with respect to previous literature: the number of sampled balls at each time-step is random, the addition matrix has…
Distinguishing between uniform and non-uniform sample distributions is a common problem in directional data analysis; however for many tests, non-uniform distributions exist that fail uniformity rejection. By merging directional statistics…
In probability theory, there is a tendency to treat one random variable with a given distribution as being just as good as any other. By and large this is fine because probability is (mostly) concerned with distributional properties of…