Related papers: A Multivariate Hawkes Process Model for Stablecoin…
The paper constructs a multi-variate Hawkes process model of Bitcoin block arrivals and price jumps. Hawkes processes are selfexciting point processes that can capture the self- and cross-excitation effects of block mining and Bitcoin price…
In May 2022, an apparent speculative attack, followed by market panic, led to the precipitous downfall of UST, one of the most popular stablecoins at that time. However, UST is not the only stablecoin to have been depegged in the past.…
With market capitalization exceeding USD250 billion by mid-2025, stablecoins have evolved from a crypto-focused innovation into a vital component of the global monetary structure. This paper identifies the characteristics of stablecoins…
Stablecoins have emerged as a significant component of global financial infrastructure, with aggregate market capitalization surpassing USD250 billion in 2025. Their increasing integration into payment and settlement systems has…
This work focuses on a self-exciting point process defined by a Hawkes-like intensity and a switching mechanism based on a hidden Markov chain. Previous works in such a setting assume constant intensities between consecutive events. We…
Stablecoins are a class of cryptocurrencies which aim at providing consistency and predictability, typically by pegging the token's value to that of a real world asset. Designing resilient decentralized stablecoins is a challenge, and…
This paper presents an option pricing model that incorporates clustered jumps using a bivariate Hawkes process. The process captures both self- and cross-excitation of positive and negative jumps, enabling the model to generate return…
Trade executions for major stocks come in bursts of activity, which can be partly attributed to the presence of self- and mutual excitations endogenous to the system. In this paper, we study transaction reports for five FTSE 100 stocks. We…
An algorithmic stablecoin is a type of cryptocurrency managed by algorithms (i.e., smart contracts) to dynamically minimize the volatility of its price relative to a specific form of asset, e.g., US dollar. As algorithmic stablecoins have…
In this paper we propose an overview of the recent academic literature devoted to the applications of Hawkes processes in finance. Hawkes processes constitute a particular class of multivariate point processes that has become very popular…
The Hawkes model is suitable for describing self and mutually exciting random events. In addition, the exponential decay in the Hawkes process allows us to calculate the moment properties in the model. However, due to the complexity of the…
We introduce a Hawkes-like process and study its scaling limit as the system becomes increasingly endogenous. We derive functional limit theorems for intensity and fluctuations. Then, we introduce a high-frequency model for a price of a…
A point process for event arrivals in high frequency trading is presented. The intensity is the product of a Hawkes process and high dimensional functions of covariates derived from the order book. Conditions for stationarity of the process…
Cryptocurrencies have recently experienced a new wave of price volatility and interest; activity within social media communities relating to cryptocurrencies has increased significantly. There is currently limited documented knowledge of…
Traditional blockchain systems, such as Ethereum, typically rely on a \emph{single volatile cryptocurrency for transaction fees}. This leads to fluctuating transaction fee prices and limits the flexibility of users' payment options. To…
A reputation of high volatility accompanies the emergence of Bitcoin as a financial asset. This paper intends to nuance this reputation and clarify our understanding of Bitcoin's volatility. Using daily, weekly, and monthly closing prices…
Accurately forecasting the direction of financial returns poses a formidable challenge, given the inherent unpredictability of financial time series. The task becomes even more arduous when applied to cryptocurrency returns, given the…
Quadratic Hawkes (QHawkes) processes have proved effective at reproducing the statistics of price changes, capturing many of the stylised facts of financial markets. Motivated by the recently reported strong occurrence of endogenous…
Stablecoins are one of the most widely capitalized type of cryptocurrency. However, their risks vary significantly according to their design and are often poorly understood. We seek to provide a sound foundation for stablecoin theory, with…
The cryptocurrency market is volatile, non-stationary and non-continuous. Together with liquid derivatives markets, this poses a unique opportunity to study risk management, especially the hedging of options, in a turbulent market. We study…