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Deep learning tools have gained tremendous attention in applied machine learning. However such tools for regression and classification do not capture model uncertainty. In comparison, Bayesian models offer a mathematically grounded…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-05 Yarin Gal , Zoubin Ghahramani

The earth system is exceedingly complex and often chaotic in nature, making prediction incredibly challenging: we cannot expect to make perfect predictions all of the time. Instead, we look for specific states of the system that lead to…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-01-05 Elizabeth A. Barnes , Randal J. Barnes

Uncertainty is a key feature of any machine learning model and is particularly important in neural networks, which tend to be overconfident. This overconfidence is worrying under distribution shifts, where the model performance silently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-18 Arthur Thuy , Dries F. Benoit

This paper presents a deep learning based model predictive control algorithm for control affine nonlinear discrete time systems with matched and bounded state-dependent uncertainties of unknown structure. Since the structure of…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-02-28 Prabhat K. Mishra , Mateus V. Gasparino , Andres E. B. Velasquez , Girish Chowdhary

Obtaining reliable and accurate quantification of uncertainty estimates from deep neural networks is important in safety-critical applications. A well-calibrated model should be accurate when it is certain about its prediction and indicate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-16 Ranganath Krishnan , Omesh Tickoo

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved remarkable success in a variety of computer vision tasks, where massive labeled images are routinely required for model optimization. Yet, the data collected from the open world are unavoidably…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-02-13 Peng Cui , Yang Yue , Zhijie Deng , Jun Zhu

In recent years, there has been considerable innovation in the world of predictive methodologies. This is evident by the relative domination of machine learning approaches in various classification competitions. While these algorithms have…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-12 Barinder Thind , Kevin Multani , Jiguo Cao

Modern neural network architectures for large-scale learning tasks have substantially higher model complexities, which makes understanding, visualizing and training these architectures difficult. Recent contributions to deep learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Jayadeva , Himanshu Pant , Mayank Sharma , Abhimanyu Dubey , Sumit Soman , Suraj Tripathi , Sai Guruju , Nihal Goalla

Machine learning classification tasks often benefit from predicting a set of possible labels with confidence scores to capture uncertainty. However, existing methods struggle with the high-dimensional nature of the data and the lack of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-08 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

We investigate the problem of determining the predictive confidence (or, conversely, uncertainty) of a neural classifier through the lens of low-resource languages. By training models on sub-sampled datasets in three different languages, we…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-10-28 Dennis Ulmer , Jes Frellsen , Christian Hardmeier

Modern deep learning tools are remarkably effective in addressing intricate problems. However, their operation as black-box models introduces increased uncertainty in predictions. Additionally, they contend with various challenges,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-09 Sourav Ganguly , Saprativa Bhattacharjee

Deep artificial neural networks have made remarkable progress in different tasks in the field of computer vision. However, the empirical analysis of these models and investigation of their failure cases has received attention recently. In…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2016-02-10 Babak Saleh , Ahmed Elgammal , Jacob Feldman

Uncertainty estimation methods using deep learning approaches strive against separating how uncertain the state of the world manifests to us via measurement (objective end) from the way this gets scrambled with the model specification and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-21 Edgardo Solano-Carrillo

Regression methods are fundamental for scientific and technological applications. However, fitted models can be highly unreliable outside of their training domain, and hence the quantification of their uncertainty is crucial in many of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-05 Filippo Bigi , Sanggyu Chong , Michele Ceriotti , Federico Grasselli

Deep neural networks have proven to be extremely powerful, however, they are also vulnerable to adversarial attacks which can cause hazardous incorrect predictions in safety-critical applications. Certified robustness via randomized…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Sina Däubener , Kira Maag , David Krueger , Asja Fischer

Calibrating deep neural models plays an important role in building reliable, robust AI systems in safety-critical applications. Recent work has shown that modern neural networks that possess high predictive capability are poorly calibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-16 Cheng Wang

Deep neural networks are increasingly being used for the analysis of medical images. However, most works neglect the uncertainty in the model's prediction. We propose an uncertainty-aware deep kernel learning model which permits the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-11 Zhiliang Wu , Yinchong Yang , Jindong Gu , Volker Tresp

Improving the classification of multi-class imbalanced data is more difficult than its two-class counterpart. In this paper, we use deep neural networks to train new representations of tabular multi-class data. Unlike the typically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-19 Damian Horna , Lango Mateusz , Jerzy Stefanowski

This paper questions the effectiveness of a modern predictive uncertainty quantification approach, called \emph{evidential deep learning} (EDL), in which a single neural network model is trained to learn a meta distribution over the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-04 Maohao Shen , J. Jon Ryu , Soumya Ghosh , Yuheng Bu , Prasanna Sattigeri , Subhro Das , Gregory W. Wornell

Deep neural networks (DNNs) often suffer from the overconfidence issue, where incorrect predictions are made with high confidence scores, hindering the applications in critical systems. In this paper, we propose a novel approach called…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-11-08 Yijun Liu , Jiequan Cui , Zhuotao Tian , Senqiao Yang , Qingdong He , Xiaoling Wang , Jingyong Su