Related papers: Scalable Stochastic Parametric Verification with S…

Sparse support vector machine (SVM) is a popular classification technique that can simultaneously learn a small set of the most interpretable features and identify the support vectors. It has achieved great successes in many real-world…

We consider parallel asynchronous Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for problems where we can leverage (stochastic) gradients to define continuous dynamics which explore the target distribution. We outline a solution strategy for…

This paper offers a survey of uppaalsmc, a major extension of the real-time verification tool uppaal. uppaalsmc allows for the efficient analysis of performance properties of networks of priced timed automata under a natural stochastic…

In recent years, the increasing interest in Stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) schemes has highlighted the limitation arising from their inherent computational demand, which has restricted their applicability to slow-dynamics and…

A Bayesian non-parametric framework for studying time-to-event data is proposed, where the prior distribution is allowed to depend on an additional random source, and may update with the sample size. Such scenarios are natural, for…

The stochastic block model (SBM) is a probabilistic model de- signed to describe heterogeneous directed and undirected graphs. In this paper, we address the asymptotic inference on SBM by use of maximum- likelihood and variational…

In regression models for spatial data, it is often assumed that the marginal effects of covariates on the response are constant over space. In practice, this assumption might often be questionable. In this article, we show how a Gaussian…

Classical parameter-space Bayesian inference for Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) suffers from several unresolved prior issues, such as knowledge encoding intractability and pathological behaviours in deep networks, which can lead to…

Bayesian methods have proved powerful in many applications for the inference of model parameters from data. These methods are based on Bayes' theorem, which itself is deceptively simple. However, in practice the computations required are…

A body of recent work has focused on constructing a variational family of filtered distributions using Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). Inspired by this work, we introduce Particle Smoothing Variational Objectives (SVO), a novel backward…

Single-molecule force spectroscopy (smFS) is a powerful approach to studying molecular self-organization. However, the coupling of the molecule with the ever-present experimental device introduces artifacts, that complicates the…

We consider the problem of high-dimensional filtering of state-space models (SSMs) at discrete times. This problem is particularly challenging as analytical solutions are typically not available and many numerical approximation methods can…

The spatial error model (SEM) is a type of simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) model for analysing spatially correlated data. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is one of the most widely used Bayesian methods for estimating SEM, but it has…

The performance of model-based control techniques strongly depends on the quality of the employed dynamics model. If strong guarantees are desired, it is therefore common to robustly treat all possible sources of uncertainty, such as model…

We show how to use Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) to carry out inference in Gaussian process (GP) models with non-Gaussian likelihoods and large data volumes. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is extremely computationally intensive…

In state space models, smoothing refers to the task of estimating a latent stochastic process given noisy measurements related to the process. We propose an unbiased estimator of smoothing expectations. The lack-of-bias property has…

We introduce a novel Bayesian framework for estimating time-varying volatility by extending the Random Walk Stochastic Volatility (RWSV) model with Dynamic Shrinkage Processes (DSP) in log-variances. Unlike the classical Stochastic…

Stochastic volatility (SV) models are nonlinear state-space models that enjoy increasing popularity for fitting and predicting heteroskedastic time series. However, due to the large number of latent quantities, their efficient estimation is…

Parametric stochastic simulators are ubiquitous in science, often featuring high-dimensional input parameters and/or an intractable likelihood. Performing Bayesian parameter inference in this context can be challenging. We present a neural…

A conventional Bayesian approach to prediction uses the posterior distribution to integrate out parameters in a density for unobserved data conditional on the observed data and parameters. When the true posterior is intractable, it is…