Related papers: Assessing Confidence with Assurance 2.0
An assurance case should provide justifiable confidence in the truth of a claim about some critical property of a system or procedure, such as safety or security. We consider how confidence can be assessed in the rigorous approach we call…
Confidence is central to safety and assurance cases: how much confidence a decision requires and how much the argument actually provides are both important questions. We present a new method for assessing probabilistic confidence in…
A traditional assurance case employs a positive argument in which reasoning steps, grounded on evidence and assumptions, sustain a top claim that has external significance. Human judgement is required to check the evidence, the assumptions,…
As Automated Driving Systems (ADS) technology advances, ensuring safety and public trust requires robust assurance frameworks, with safety cases emerging as a critical tool toward such a goal. This paper explores an approach to assess how a…
Arguments about the safety, security, and correctness of a complex system are often made in the form of an assurance case. An assurance case is a structured argument, often represented with a graphical interface, that presents and supports…
Building a safety case is a common approach to make expert judgement explicit about safety of a system. The issue of confidence in such argumentation is still an open research field. Providing quantitative estimation of confidence is an…
System assurance is confronted by significant challenges. Some of these are new, for example, autonomous systems with major functions driven by machine learning and AI, and ultra-rapid system development, while others are the familiar,…
Powerful new frontier AI technologies are bringing many benefits to society but at the same time bring new risks. AI developers and regulators are therefore seeking ways to assure the safety of such systems, and one promising method under…
Effective software safety standards will contribute to confidence, or assurance, in the safety of the systems in which the software is used. It is infeasible to demonstrate a correlation between standards and accidents, but there is an…
Assurance cases are structured arguments that are commonly used to reason about the safety of a product or service. Currently, there is an ongoing push towards using assurance cases for also cybersecurity, especially in safety-critical…
Justifying the correct implementation of the non-functional requirements (e.g., safety, security) of mission-critical systems is crucial to prevent system failure. The later could have severe consequences such as the death of people and…
Assurance cases offer a structured way to present arguments and evidence for certification of systems where safety and security are critical. However, creating and evaluating these assurance cases can be complex and challenging, even for…
We characterize a notion of confidence that arises in learning or updating beliefs: the amount of trust one has in incoming information and its impact on the belief state. This learner's confidence can be used alongside (and is easily…
Assurance cases (ACs) are prepared to argue that a system has satisfied critical quality attributes. Many methods exist to assess confidence in ACs, including quantitative methods that represent confidence numerically. While quantitative…
This contribution to the debate on confidence limits focuses mostly on the case of measurements with `open likelihood', in the sense that it is defined in the text. I will show that, though a prior-free assessment of {\it confidence} is, in…
Accepting a proposition means that our confidence in this proposition is strictly greater than the confidence in its negation. This paper investigates the subclass of uncertainty measures, expressing confidence, that capture the idea of…
The premises of an argument give evidence or other reasons to support a conclusion. However, the amount of support required depends on the generality of a conclusion, the nature of the individual premises, and similar. An argument whose…
CONTEXT: Assurance Cases (ACs) are prepared to argue that the system's desired quality attributes (e.g., safety or security) are satisfied. While there is strong adoption of ACs, practitioners are often left asking an important question:…
Confidence estimation (CE) indicates how reliable the answers of large language models are and impacts user trust and decision-making. Existing evaluations mainly concern the alignment between confidence and correctness, but ignore the…
Recent studies investigated the challenge of assessing the strength of a given claim extracted from a dataset, particularly the claim's potential of being misleading and cherry-picked. We focus on claims that compare answers to an aggregate…