Related papers: Structural inequalities exacerbate infection dispa…
Interaction patterns among individuals play vital roles in spreading infectious diseases. Understanding these patterns and integrating their impact in modeling diffusion dynamics of infectious diseases are important for epidemiological…
We introduce a theoretical framework that highlights the impact of physical distancing variables such as human mobility and physical proximity on the evolution of epidemics and, crucially, on the reproduction number. In particular, in…
We consider the edge-based compartmental models for infectious disease spread introduced in Part I. These models allow us to consider standard SIR diseases spreading in random populations. In this paper we show how to handle deviations of…
Infectious diseases are a threat for human health with tremendous impact on our society at large. The recent COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2, is the latest example of a highly infectious disease ravaging the world, since late…
We present an early version of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SEIRD) mathematical model based on partial differential equations coupled with a heterogeneous diffusion model. The model describes the spatio-temporal spread…
We present a new mathematical model to explicitly capture the effects that the three restriction measures: the lockdown date and duration, social distancing and masks, and, schools and border closing, have in controlling the spread of…
We develop a minimalist compartmental model to study the impact of mobility restrictions in Italy during the Covid-19 outbreak. We show that an early lockdown shifts the epidemic in time, while that beyond a critical value of the lockdown…
The spread of infectious diseases is often influenced by human mobility across different geographical regions. Although numerous studies have investigated how diseases like SARS and COVID-19 spread from China to various global locations,…
During pandemic events, strategies such as social distancing can be fundamental to curb viral spreading. Such actions can reduce the number of simultaneous infections and mitigate the disease spreading, which is relevant to the risk of a…
Outbreaks are complex multi-scale processes that are impacted not only by cellular dynamics and the ability of pathogens to effectively reproduce and spread, but also by population-level dynamics and the effectiveness of mitigation…
The detection and management of diseases become quite complicated when pathogens contain asymptomatic phenotypes amongst their ranks, as evident during the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Spreading of diseases has been studied extensively under…
In this work, the aim is to study the spread of a contagious disease and information on a multilayer social system. The main idea is to find a criterion under which the adoption of the spreading information blocks or suppresses the epidemic…
In a metapopulation network, infectious diseases spread widely because of the travel of individuals. In the present study, we consider a modified metapopulation Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model with a latent period, which we call…
Mathematical models of infectious diseases exhibit robust dynamics such as stable endemic or a disease-free equilibrium, or convergence of the solutions to periodic epidemic waves. The present work shows that the accuracy of such dynamics…
The COVID-19 crisis has shown that we can only prevent the risk of mass contagion through timely, large-scale, coordinated, and decisive actions. However, frequently the models used by experts [from whom decision-makers get their main…
The COVID-19 pandemic due to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has directly impacted the public health and economy worldwide. To overcome this problem, countries have adopted different policies and non-pharmaceutical interventions for controlling…
We study the spreading of a disease on top of structured scale-free networks recently introduced. By means of numerical simulations we analyze the SIS and the SIR models. Our results show that when the connectivity fluctuations of the…
Here we propose and implement a generalized mathematical model to find the time evolution of population in infectious diseases and apply the model to study the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Our model at the core is a non-local generalization of…
The pattern formation and spatial spread of infectious populations are investigated using a kernel-based Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model applicable across a wide range of basic reproduction numbers $R_o$. The focus is on the…
Changing environmental conditions can significantly affect the dynamics of disease spread. These changes may arise naturally or result from human interventions; in the latter case, lockdown measures that lead to abrupt but temporary…