Related papers: Nested Zero Inflated Generalized Poisson Regressio…
In recent years, many different approaches have been proposed to quantify the performances of soccer players. Since player performances are challenging to quantify directly due to the low-scoring nature of soccer, most approaches estimate…
Dimension reduction of high-dimensional microbiome data facilitates subsequent analysis such as regression and clustering. Most existing reduction methods cannot fully accommodate the special features of the data such as count-valued and…
One of the most popular club football tournaments, the UEFA Champions League, will see a fundamental reform from the 2024/25 season: the traditional group stage will be replaced by one league where each of the 36 teams plays eight matches.…
Penalized likelihood approaches are widely used for high-dimensional regression. Although many methods have been proposed and the associated theory is now well-developed, the relative efficacy of different approaches in finite-sample…
The Poisson-gamma state space (PGSS) models have been utilized in the analysis of non-negative integer-valued time series to sequentially obtain closed form filtering and predictive densities. In this study, we show the underlying mechanics…
In this work we apply several Poisson and zero-inflated models for software defect prediction. We apply different functions from several R packages such as pscl, MASS, R2Jags and the recent glmmTMB. We test the functions using the Equinox…
The success of a football team depends on various individual skills and performances of the selected players as well as how cohesively they perform. We propose a two-stage process for selecting optimal playing eleven of a football team from…
Standard approaches to forecasting the weekly number of earthquakes on a spatial grid rely on the Poisson distribution with a single global dispersion assumption. We show that this assumption is systematically violated in seismic data from…
Scientifically evaluating soccer players represents a challenging Machine Learning problem. Unfortunately, most existing answers have very opaque algorithm training procedures; relevant data are scarcely accessible and almost impossible to…
We introduce a novel class of Bayesian mixtures for normal linear regression models which incorporates a further Gaussian random component for the distribution of the predictor variables. The proposed cluster-weighted model aims to…
The declining response rates in probability surveys along with the widespread availability of unstructured data has led to growing research into non-probability samples. Existing robust approaches are not well-developed for non-Gaussian…
On the occasion of the last FIFA World Cup in Brazil, The Economist published a plot depicting how many goals have been scored in all World Cup competitions until present, minute by minute. The plot was followed by a naive and poorly…
This paper introduces the first Expected Possession Value (EPV) benchmark and a new and improved EPV model for football. Through the introduction of the OJN-Pass-EPV benchmark, we present a novel method to quantitatively assess the quality…
Expected goals (xG) models estimate the probability that a shot results in a goal from its context (e.g., location, pressure), but they operate only on observed shots. We propose xG+, a possession-level framework that first estimates the…
We propose a new methodology to detect zero-inflation and overdispersion based on the comparison of the expected sample extremes among convexly ordered distributions. The method is very flexible and includes tests for the proportion of…
During the last few sports seasons a lot of discussion has been generated for the several, high-profile, "comebacks" that were observed in almost all sports. The Cavaliers won the championship after being down 3-1 in the 2016 NBA finals'…
The fused lasso penalizes a loss function by the $L_1$ norm for both the regression coefficients and their successive differences to encourage sparsity of both. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian generalized fused lasso modeling based on…
FIFA World Cup is one of the most watched sporting event in the world and its popularity continue to increase. While currently 32 teams participate in this event, starting with 2026 the number of participants will increase to 48. As a…
Global games are a class of incomplete information games where the payoffs exhibit strategic complementarity leading to an incentive for the agents to coordinate their actions. Such games have been used to model scenarios in many…
This paper presents a new derivation of the Generalized Poisson distribution. This distribution provides a good fit to the evolved, counts-in-cells distribution measured in numerical simulations of hierarchical clustering from Poisson…